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May 2017 Discussion


Jonger

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I'm not very weather savvy, so excuse my potential dumb question. I've been watching the temperature maps for past week or so, the GFS and NAM. Why is it that there is so much warm air through the plains, but it seems like there is a wall around the great lakes region? None of the heat really ever gets here and for the next week or so that pattern looks to be holding. What is going on here?

 

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About as raw of a May Day as you could expect around here, 45 degrees, steady moderate soaking rain, and winds driving said rain. 

Some of the rural schools are actually dismissing early, due to flooding and rising waters. Isolated spots just south of here have had 8-9" of rain the past week. 

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3 hours ago, TravisWx said:

I'm not very weather savvy, so excuse my potential dumb question. I've been watching the temperature maps for past week or so, the GFS and NAM. Why is it that there is so much warm air through the plains, but it seems like there is a wall around the great lakes region? None of the heat really ever gets here and for the next week or so that pattern looks to be holding. What is going on here?

 

Upper level low will be parked over the area or just to the east, with that there will be northerly or northeasterly winds bringing in cold air from Canada. There is no return flow because the low doesn't move much. In other words a miserable pattern locking in for a long period.

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I don't think I could write a better 7 day forecast for the first half of May.  I don't plan on being inside much when not at work for the next week.  Days are starting to get long too....  daylight until 9pm and full light by 630am.
 
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 6 to 15 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 8 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. East wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Southeast wind around 8 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. South southeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. South southeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North northeast wind 6 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
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1 hour ago, XfireLOW said:
I don't think I could write a better 7 day forecast for the first half of May.  I don't plan on being inside much when not at work for the next week.  Days are starting to get long too....  daylight until 9pm and full light by 630am.
 

Wow. Much nicer than down here. We'll probably end up with frost/freeze warnings Sat/Sun and maybe even Mon nights

 

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7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Upper level low will be parked over the area or just to the east, with that there will be northerly or northeasterly winds bringing in cold air from Canada. There is no return flow because the low doesn't move much. In other words a miserable pattern locking in for a long period.

darth-vader-so-you-have-accepted-the-truth.jpg.fa609010569fd2ecad1fa7447003774b.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Jonger said:

darth-vader-so-you-have-accepted-the-truth.jpg.fa609010569fd2ecad1fa7447003774b.jpg

Long in relative terms of the month. I don't know why you'd be excited about the potential of destructive frosts and the fruit industry in this state getting crushed for the second time in 5 years.

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7 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I have never seen it snow on my birthday, but this is going to be close. May 18th is my birthday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.thumb.png.0497fa99cb9a74c009bd92db1705b8bc.png

Chase the fiction in the late hours of the GFS, let me know how the 100" of snow it showed this year went for you too.

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Just now, weatherbo said:

His post was in jest, stop being a turd.

 

Spring weather just not happening. 40 degrees with a pesky north wind.

Posts in jest usually are funny. Coming from a guy who always wishes for cold weather even in the summer, it wasn't in jest.

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Chase the fiction in the late hours of the GFS, let me know how the 100" of snow it showed this year went for you too.

There won't be any notable accumulation, but that pattern is pretty much a lock.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Oh really, explain why it is a lock? I would love to hear the reasoning as to why a day 12 projection is a lock.

This isn't 2010. You haven't noticed that 300 hr depicted patterns have been money since... oh... 2 years ago.

 

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Just now, Jonger said:

This isn't 2010. You haven't noticed that 300 hr depicted patterns have been money since... oh... 2 years ago.

 

No they haven't, if they were we would have had blizzard after blizzard this winter.  You really don't know what you are talking about, stats back up what I am saying. Is it marginally better than 2010, sure, but no where near perfect. If anything the GFS tends to overdo 500mb lows after day 10, again backed up in the model statistics.

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Just to put a point to a graphic, this is from the ECMWF, going out only 10 days:

ps2png-atls15-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

It is only getting the anomaly correlation correct at 50% at day 10 which is marginally better than 2010. Also we are talking only day 10, not even 3 days further.

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Here is a day 7 of sea level pressure verification chart with many models included:

TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR.gif

Even at day 7 you are averaging around 75%, fact are facts on this one. The models are not great beyond a certain point and surely not great at day 13.

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55 minutes ago, Stebo said:

No they haven't, if they were we would have had blizzard after blizzard this winter.  You really don't know what you are talking about, stats back up what I am saying. Is it marginally better than 2010, sure, but no where near perfect. If anything the GFS tends to overdo 500mb lows after day 10, again backed up in the model statistics.

The long range gfs is far from money. But I will say it's biases are not solely cold like they used to be. In fact some long range runs had temps in the 60s while we were in the 20s with snow in mid-March. The only reason I remember that is because of an event I had that weekend. Normally I glance at it so I easily forget what it shows in clown range. I can't say I remember it showing a parade of blizzards though.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

The long range gfs is far from money. But I will say it's biases are not solely cold like they used to be. In fact some long range runs had temps in the 60s while we were in the 20s with snow in mid-March. The only reason I remember that is because of an event I had that weekend. Normally I glance at it so I easily forget what it shows in clown range. I can't say I remember it showing a parade of blizzards though.

There were several storms at that range that evaporated into nothing. My comment isn't about bias though, it is about the model simply being wrong. In this case however, it being wrong would inherently be warmer because it is showing temps cold enough for snow in mid May. There literally is only one direction to go from that point.

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