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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Do you feel the need to nitpick everything I post?

Just trying to keep it real for those who don't check themselves.  In my opinion the HRRR does not show multiple lines of storms moving through the area.  We can agree to disagree and let others check for themselves.  

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Just trying to keep it real for those who don't check themselves.  In my opinion the HRRR does not show multiple lines of storms moving through the area.  We can agree to disagree and let others check for themselves.  

Not sure if you're looking at the free version on Tropical Tidbits or a paid version.

The free version doesn't have the same resolution to see what I'm looking at.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Not sure if you're looking at the free version on Tropical Tidbits or a paid version.

The free version doesn't have the same resolution to see what I'm looking at.

Fair enough, I don't pay for maps.  We'll see what happens then I suppose.

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Fair enough, I don't pay for maps.  We'll see what happens then I suppose.

FWIW it's already going to be wrong because it has the first cluster of storms already approaching the city and right now all that's out there is one rogue shower over Rockland.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

FWIW it's already going to be wrong because it has the first cluster of storms already approaching the city and right now all that's out there is one rogue shower over Rockland.

Rgem has been consistently showing a line of storms forming near NYC/LI and dropping it south later this evening.

Let's see.

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Just now, ag3 said:

Rgem has been consistently showing a line of storms forming near NYC/LI and dropping it south later this evening.

Let's see.

Yeah it makes sense given our proximity to the cold front, moderate shear and strong instability.

Limiting factor appears to be moisture as humidity is only about 40%.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah it makes sense given our proximity to the cold front, moderate shear and strong instability.

Limiting factor appears to be moisture as humidity is only about 40%.

Following the Rgem for years, when it is consistently showing the same solutions (inside of 24 hours), it usually schools the rest of the suite.

It's the only model available that could be right when it's the big outlier.

We'll see if that happens again today.

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Just now, ag3 said:

Following the Rgem for years, when it is consistently showing the same solutions (inside of 24 hours), it usually schools the rest of the suite.

It's the only model available that could be right when it's the big outlier.

We'll see if that happens again today.

Well it's not really a big outlier, the RAP, GGEM, GFS and GGEM all have activity. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Well it's not really a big outlier, the RAP, GGEM, GFS and GGEM all have activity. 

GFS had nothing until today. Rgem has been bullish from 36 hours out.

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Just now, ag3 said:

GFS had nothing until today.

Yes that's true, I was referring to the 12z GFS.

I wouldn't expect a global model to pick up on it anyway.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_2.png

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Literally watched as this cell more or less formed over this way about an hour ago. Didn't drop any rain until East of the area, but looks like it could be cycling up.

WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.125&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=-16&centery=1168&transx=-416&transy=928&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24920267&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

3 hot days and our monthly negative departure is gone (depending on how low we get before midnight)

Well if you think about it, 94 degrees is about as abnormal as 48 degrees this time of year, so I guess it all balances itself out.

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Select Record High Temperatures (Through 2 PM):

Bridgeport: 87° (old record: 86°, 1998
Islip: 89° (old record: 87°, 1998
Providence: 91° (old record: 89°, 1906)
Westhampton: 86° (old record: 77°, 2002)

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I believe this is the earliest official heatwave since 4/16-4/18 2002.

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe this is the earliest official heatwave since 4/16-4/18 2002.

there's an analog for a hot summer...2002 sizzled.  Especially August.   We had 8 or 9 90's degree days in a row at one point.

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Literally watching this cell miss me not more than two miles to the North. Nice storm structure.

WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.125&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=192.60869565217388&centery=1271.2521739130436&transx=-207.39130434782612&transy=1031.2521739130436&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24920331&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

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Well looks like I am going to be close to ground zero for the trailing cell which looks even more impressive. No CTG lightning strikes showing up yet though.

WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.15&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=263.3333333333335&centery=963.3333333333333&transx=-136.66666666666652&transy=723.3333333333333&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24920340&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

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just missed a storm up here in the Poconos...the last three days were 90 or higher in Central Park...Some other very warm three days before May 20th...

4/16-18/2002...92 96 91

4/17-19/1976...91 96 92

5/02-04/2001...90 90 92

5/05-07/1930...89 91 91

5/07-09/2000...93 91 91

5/07-09/1970...90 93 88

5/09-11/1896...91 92 91

5/19-21/1962...89 99 90

5/17-19/2017...90 92 91

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