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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same here.   A real bummer especially since it was dry from 10-11:30am.  The town is taking a beating on their facebook page.

I am just getting my first break of sun here today now. 

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we had some earlier, but with this line of light showers we're back in the muck-guessing once it moves through within a hour we'll catch a break or two.

The only two rainstorms that really impressed me this spring were May 5th and the convection Thursday night.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only two rainstorms that really impressed me this spring were May 5th and the convection Thursday night.

Agree-this was a bust for the most part-the coastal robbed the precip and the great lakes low was too far NW-we ended up in between.   

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree-this was a bust for the most part-the coastal robbed the precip and the great lakes low was too far NW-we ended up in between.   

The Euro and even GFS did a decent job not going overboard on the rains like the NAM did. But we know how the NAM loves to spit out those QPF blobs outside its range.

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8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Do you think we will clear up later on and see some sun?

We will still have to contend with the easterly flow this afternoon holding the marine layer in place. But maybe we can catch a few more breaks like we just got.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a fun day being a beach life gaurd. Windy and cold right on the beach. Some fairly big surf but it's all sloppy with onshore flow

The SST departures finally cooled off following all the recent record warm departures south of Long Island.

 

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anoma.1.2_2017.gif.44950c272099c947564dad90bfa92eb2.gif

 

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42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z GFS is awful. Especially next weekend.

 

Yeah it shows pretty much a general troughiness here for the next 10 days, even though it shows some hope after that - but that is fantasy land at this point, and even a few days ago it was showing a little ridging around 6/6-6/7 only now to show a cut off and trough to return

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19 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

 

Yeah it shows pretty much a general troughiness here for the next 10 days, even though it shows some hope after that - but that is fantasy land at this point, and even a few days ago it was showing a little ridging around 6/6-6/7 only now to show a cut off and trough to return

Yeah, 5-8" of rain too.

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Actually yesterday finished alright, the precip pretty much ended early afternoon so outside was not horrible by 4.  It was grey and cool and things were wet but being outside is still better than being inside so I went for a mt bike ride :)  Today is horrible though, pea soup fog and steady misting drizzle at about 50*  

Hey order me up a dry and warm day next Sunday will ya please ^_^  Saturday too if it's not too much trouble heheh  My daughter has the state final race in the hs mt bike league and the place it's at turns to glue when it's wet and ruins bike parts.  All this talk of gloom and doom is no good...

 

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12 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z GFS is awful. Especially next weekend.

Sunday will probably be the disaster day and not Saturday as most models show now.  The medium range guidance in summer on FROPAs or any organized system tends to usually be too fast so I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday turned out okay. 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Sunday will probably be the disaster day and not Saturday as most models show now.  The medium range guidance in summer on FROPAs or any organized system tends to usually be too fast so I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday turned out okay. 

If you follow this years trend both days will probably end up being unmitigated disasters. 

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