forkyfork Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 the models all have different locations for tonight's rainfall so we won't know who will get the 1" amounts until it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 .75" total so far. 57F and kicked on the heat again to get the chill out, certainly hope this is the end of that until fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 back edge approaching here. Squally weather. heavy rain one minute, next minute nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Yeah, the rainfall is all up in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 It's really clearing down in VA. There may be widespread convective development there moving north but I don't think it really holds together into here overnight. Probably mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's really clearing down in VA. There may be widespread convective development there moving north but I don't think it really holds together into here overnight. Probably mostly rain Well it's associated with a surface low that's rapidly developing so there will be some enhanced lift to the North and East of the center. It's really a matter of how far West the low tracks. It's kind of the opposite of Winter where you want to be NW of the low. It just doesn't develop a good NW shield until it's into Central New England tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The 16z HRRR has explosive convective development from DC to BWI from 20z to 00z which then slowly moves North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Quote 12z GGEM shows rain saturday afternoon. Even GFS now shows some scattered showers for saturday. I mentioned this yesterday. Why are all forecasts saying saturday is the one beautiful day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain at all? Seems as if they're ignoring guidance that's showing rain for saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if sunday ends up better than saturday. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: 12z GGEM shows rain saturday afternoon. Even GFS now shows some scattered showers for saturday. I mentioned this yesterday. Why are all forecasts saying saturday is the one beautiful day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain at all? Seems as if they're ignoring guidance that's showing rain for saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if sunday ends up better than saturday. What do you guys think? First of all the guidance is really moving around from run to run, so it's a low confidence forecast. Last night the models shifted South for Saturday but now they are creeping North. It still should be a mostly nice day, and I say that because if there is some activity, it should be scattered or isolated enough to keep it low impact. In fact all weekend it looks like a general nuisance rain, not widespread. Difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 There are still hints of a MCS coming from the Ohio Valley, however these generally favor areas to our South like the 00z ECMWF and 12z UKMET show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: First of all the guidance is really moving around from run to run, so it's a low confidence forecast. Last night the models shifted South for Saturday but now they are creeping North. It still should be a mostly nice day, and I say that because if there is some activity, it should be scattered or isolated enough to keep it low impact. In fact all weekend it looks like a general nuisance rain, not widespread. Difficult forecast. I definitely agree that it's a low confidence forecast. That's sort of my point. All forecasts have been acting as if saturday is a slam dunk beautiful day. I think it's questionable just like the rest of the weekend. GGEM has been extremely consistent in bringing the batch of rain acoss PA and then into our area saturday afternoon. It's not out of the question that it could be right. It could go to the south, but I don't want people to be shocked if saturday afternoon plans end up being ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 16z HRRR has explosive convective development from DC to BWI from 20z to 00z which then slowly moves North. Yeah, and from 04z to 06z, a pretty strong blob actually tracks right over Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I definitely agree that it's a low confidence forecast. That's sort of my point. All forecasts have been acting as if saturday is a slam dunk beautiful day. I think it's questionable just like the rest of the weekend. GGEM has been extremely consistent in bringing the batch of rain acoss PA and then into our area saturday afternoon. It's not out of the question that it could be right. It could go to the south, but I don't want people to be shocked if saturday afternoon plans end up being ruined. Well all I will say again is that it's a convective complex coming out of the Ohio Valley and they usually track NW to SE, so normally we need them to come out of Ontario to have a real shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, and from 04z to 06z, a pretty strong blob actually tracks right over Northern NJ. Some areas could easily pick up a quick 1-2" if the convection materializes and pivots in a favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Besides the transient warmth last week, this May is very 2003/2009 ish. Iirc, 2003 pattern broke at the end of June while 2009 did not break until mid July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Fantom X said: Besides the transient warmth last week, this May is very 2003/2009 ish. Iirc, 2003 pattern broke at the end of June while 2009 did not break until mid July. The April warmth was the most extreme relative to March and May that you will probably see around here. Newark spring departures....Mar...-2.3.....Apr....+4.4.....May so far....-0.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The experimental HRRR has some scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with the wrap around low, but it doesn't look high impact like I've been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fantom X said: Besides the transient warmth last week, this May is very 2003/2009 ish. Iirc, 2003 pattern broke at the end of June while 2009 did not break until mid July. Last week of June 2003 was hot--you are right there. 2009 morphed into a cool, but dry July. We had some heat and humdity for a couple of weeks in August but that was about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 No real sign of extended warmth or dry weather on the 12z GEFS through at least June 10th with a mean trough in the East throughout the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Last week of June 2003 was hot--you are right there. 2009 morphed into a cool, but dry July. We had some heat and humdity for a couple of weeks in August but that was about it. Of course the day of the blackout had to be the warmest damn day of the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Convection is starting to get going over Northern VA as we speak, on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 HRRR and 12z Rgem both have the heavy rain bullseye over Nassau County, LI tonight. I would look in that area for storminess or heavy convective rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Warm fronts with this much instability aloft tonight have generally been overperformers here for heavy convection. Why can't we get midlevel lapse rates this steep round here during the summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: HRRR and 12z Rgem both have the heavy rain bullseye over Nassau County, LI tonight. I would look in that area for storminess or heavy convective rains. The 12z Euro says the area to watch is West of the Hudson river. I think that Long Island might get too close to the subsidence associated with the developing surface low as most guidance tracks the low over Long Island while areas to the West and North keep wrap around rains till the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 0.43" in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 a bit off topic, but does anyone know why the Euro always shows a jackpot of QPF in the western LI sound? It's some sort of glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z Euro says the area to watch is West of the Hudson river. I think that Long Island might get too close to the subsidence associated with the developing surface low as most guidance tracks the low over Long Island while areas to the West and North keep wrap around rains till the morning. I'll go with a LI bullseye for rainfall. While not a perfect model, I'll go with the short term Rgem over anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: I'll go with a LI bullseye for rainfall. While not a perfect model, I'll go with the short term Rgem over anything else. You're literally arguing over nothing. The RGEM dumps just as much rain over Western areas as it does LI. And as I said before, it's hard to get prolonged rain where the Surface low tracks because of subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Of course the day of the blackout had to be the warmest damn day of the summer actually for august it was in the upper 80's the day of the blackout but it was not super humid.. was a clear day i remember.. of course with no a.c or fans it was very uncomfortable that night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Euro's fairly dry through Sunday-keep most of the action south of the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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