NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 18z GFS is wet for Sunday, though I'm skeptical. Looks like the shortwave is dampening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2017 Author Share Posted May 23, 2017 EPS continues the theme of no big 90 degree heat right into the start of June as the trough hangs out nearby. This is the sweet spot for low energy costs where you can get by without using the heat or AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It's progged to be an active Summer in the East for Tropical enthusiasts. Hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS is wet for Sunday, though I'm skeptical. Looks like the shortwave is dampening out. My hunch is Monday may be the rainy day as the trof or front approaches. I'm not convinced much of anything happens Saturday or Sunday although the Euro and GFS have on and off tried to show something it's always off some sort of rogue shortwave or disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 With today and tomorrow still being BN, where is the monthly departure up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 0.04" in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2017 Author Share Posted May 24, 2017 Without an El Nino or La Nina, the pattern has defaulted to a cooler +PDO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Quick shower here this AM, partly sunny now-the precip shield did end up further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Most stations didn't record anything here, but some are showing up as .01" A hazy sun is starting to shine through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Quick shower here this AM, partly sunny now-the precip shield did end up further NW Another day with measurable precip and another victory for the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 .04" at the park. deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: .04" at the park. deluge. Stat padder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: .04" at the park. deluge. Crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Crushed! It's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Next 8 days look barely AN, (68 vs. 67)---unless holiday weekend has more sun than it appears it will have. So far this month: -0.5x23 or about a -12degs deficit for the month, which might just be cancelled out with the expected surplus of 8 degs. over the next 8 days. May will finish near NORMAL at any rate, and become the second CFS goof out of a 3 month period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's coming! I assume you're still talking about a decent rainfall...when? Tomorrow or the second half of the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, IrishRob17 said: I assume you're still talking about a decent rainfall, when? Tomorrow or the second half of the weekend? Eh, it could come tomorrow, but it doesn't look widespread. Nothing over the weekend screams widespread rains either. I have a tee time Sunday morning so hoping it doesn't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Eh, it could come tomorrow, but it doesn't look widespread. Nothing over the weekend screams widespread rains either. I have a tee time Sunday morning so hoping it doesn't rain. Hopefully the mets don't sound the alarm too loudly about the weekend being a washout, especially Monday. I talked to the person who usually hosts the Memorial Day barbecue I attend and he's already thinking about cancelling. It would be a shame if people's plans were disrupted for no reason. The shore businesses would like to get off to a nice start also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Hopefully the mets don't sound the alarm too loudly about the weekend being a washout, especially Monday. I talked to the person who usually hosts the Memorial Day barbecue I attend and he's already thinking about cancelling. It would be a shame if people's plans were disrupted for no reason. The shore businesses would like to get off to a nice start also. I never cancel anything until day of. Too many busts out there. One of the little league teams here canceled a game for last night a day before based on a forecast of rain-verification was partly sunny and dry the whole day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 12z RGEM has a screw zone for this forum, more rains east and west - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Eh, it could come tomorrow, but it doesn't look widespread. Nothing over the weekend screams widespread rains either. I have a tee time Sunday morning so hoping it doesn't rain. More agreement on globals today that Monday afternoon or evening may see tstms if the boundary comes in from the west. Sunday could be largely miserable though thanks to blowoff clouds from the dying tstm complex. Could even see showers I guess but I see Sunday now as just likely mid to high overcast most of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: More agreement on globals today that Monday afternoon or evening may see tstms if the boundary comes in from the west. Sunday could be largely miserable though thanks to blowoff clouds from the dying tstm complex. Could even see showers I guess but I see Sunday now as just likely mid to high overcast most of the day 12z GFS is fairly dry-has the showers like you said Monday late day, but it may be later in the evening if it's a few hours slower. GFS hammers Boston tomorrow with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 hour ago, matt8204 said: Hopefully the mets don't sound the alarm too loudly about the weekend being a washout, especially Monday. I talked to the person who usually hosts the Memorial Day barbecue I attend and he's already thinking about cancelling. It would be a shame if people's plans were disrupted for no reason. The shore businesses would like to get off to a nice start also. 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I never cancel anything until day of. Too many busts out there. One of the little league teams here canceled a game for last night a day before based on a forecast of rain-verification was partly sunny and dry the whole day. Last year our Memorial Day parade was canceled because of a threat of rain and the sun came out and it never more than drizzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Last year our Memorial Day parade was canceled because of a threat of rain and the sun came out and it never more than drizzled. I seem to remember the day before Memorial Day some sort of unforecast low clouds came in and socked in the south shore of LI. It even messed up the air show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Last year our Memorial Day parade was canceled because of a threat of rain and the sun came out and it never more than drizzled. same here...the rain ended around 10am and it was cloudy but dry after that...the town took alot of heat since there was no raindate...guessing they'll go the other way this year-could be a hurricane and it will go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I seem to remember the day before Memorial Day some sort of unforecast low clouds came in and socked in the south shore of LI. It even messed up the air show 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: same here...the rain ended around 10am and it was cloudy but dry after that...the town took alot of heat since there was no raindate...guessing they'll go the other way this year-could be a hurricane and it will go on. The GEFS mean has 0.50-0.75" from Sunday night into Monday morning and that would probably be enough to cancel a lot of activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GEFS mean has 0.50-0.75" from Sunday night into Monday morning and that would probably be enough to cancel a lot of activities. would depend on when it ends. Alot of times, people not in the know look at silly phone forecasts which show a drop of rain and think it's going to rain all day....had to be the case last year b/c if you looked at a radar it was clear as day it was moving out....here's the OP at 8am-hoping this verifies as it shows the action well east by then - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: would depend on when it ends. Alot of times, people not in the know look at silly phone forecasts which show a drop of rain and think it's going to rain all day....had to be the case last year b/c if you looked at a radar it was clear as day it was moving out....here's the OP at 8am-hoping this verifies as it shows the action well east by then - The damage would be done at this point. Need to hope the rain comes in Sunday afternoon or holds off till Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The damage would be done at this point. Need to hope the rain comes in Sunday afternoon or holds off till Monday night. Huh? as long as it's not actually raining most parades can go off. Ours is set for 10am here... Damp roads shouldn't cause a cancellation, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Huh? as long as it's not actually raining most parades can go off. Ours is set for 10am here... Damp roads shouldn't cause a cancellation, LOL. Because that's what happened here. The rain was done by 8AM and they still canceled. They makes those decisions hours before the event is set to start because the planning takes hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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