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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Beautiful blue skies to the east, dark skies to the west.  My Intellicast app is showing hail with this cell, I guess it's not lying.

The wind was impresssive, had to be gusts over 40mph.  Besides that, the rain wasn't very heavy.

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On 5/13/2017 at 5:21 PM, uncle W said:

so far today's max is 51 in NYC...the record low max for this date is 49 set in 1914...On May 26th-27th, 1914 the temperature reached the mid 90's...The summer of 1914 was cool but had a hot ending with mid 90's again on Sept. 22nd...

 Saturday was really an impressively cold day for May 13th in the modern era. So many of the record low maxes are from the late 1800s and early 1900s. My dad's car thermometer was reading 46F on Pelham Pkwy at 6pm. Many people turned on the heating last night...that's really late to need heating in NYC proper. 

Areas just outside the City that radiated better during last week's cool snap are really far below normal for May. A lot of the suburbs have been routinely hitting mid to upper 30s while Central Park rotted in the upper 40s. I believe Isotherm is around -5.5F this month. What is your departure on Staten Is, Uncle or Doncat?

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Cool first half of May before the big warm up this week. The coolest departures around the region were further away from the Atlantic and LI Sound. Immediate coastal locations were in the -1 to -2 range with -3 to -4 away from the water influence.

POU...-4.9...AVP...-3.1...NYC...-3.6...EWR...-3.9...LGA...-1.2...BDR...-1.5..JFK...-2.0...ISP...-1.5...TTN...-2.7

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Cool first half of May before the big warm up this week. The coolest departures around the region were further away from the Atlantic and LI Sound. Immediate coastal locations were in the -1 to -2 range with -3 to -4 away from the water influence.

POU...-4.9...AVP...-3.1...NYC...-3.6...EWR...-3.9...LGA...-1.2...BDR...-1.5..JFK...-2.0...ISP...-1.5...TTN...-2.7

-3.8 departure  here.

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19 minutes ago, doncat said:

-3.8 departure  here.

Very unusual temperature pattern this spring with the cold March, record April warmth, and cool first half of May. It could also be the first time in over a decade that the highest May temperatures come a week or more before Memorial Day at places like Newark.

Warmest May temperature and date at Newark....2016...96...5-28...2015...91...5-26...2014...88...5-27..2013...94...5-31...2012...92...5-29...2011...92...5-30...2010...95...5-26...2009...87...5-27...2008...87...5/27...2007...94...5/31...2006....94...5-29...2005...84...5-27..2004....92...5-23

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Cool first half of May before the big warm up this week. The coolest departures around the region were further away from the Atlantic and LI Sound. Immediate coastal locations were in the -1 to -2 range with -3 to -4 away from the water influence.

POU...-4.9...AVP...-3.1...NYC...-3.6...EWR...-3.9...LGA...-1.2...BDR...-1.5..JFK...-2.0...ISP...-1.5...TTN...-2.7

Yeah that -5 at POU will take some effort to flip.  The heat in my house has kicked on every single day this month and is still on this morning, it's only ~50*.  We're going to need some very warm nights to get us even to normal much less above.

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May temperature is averaging 56.4 as of yesterday...it will rise a little today...Last year May averaged 56.4 as of the 15th...56.6 as of the 18th...May 2016 ended up averaging 62.8 because of a very warm second half...this year could see another warm second half to May but will it be as warm as last years second half?...

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38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

odd warning from them yesterday

I think that was issued solely because of the potential for high wind.  Had a few strong gusts come through here, luckily there wasn't any damage.  With some cells, there was also hail, but they didn't mention it in that particular warning.

Still windy today.  No advisories from Mt. Holly though.

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16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

May temperature is averaging 56.4 as of yesterday...it will rise a little today...Last year May averaged 56.4 as of the 15th...56.6 as of the 18th...May 2016 ended up averaging 62.8 because of a very warm second half...this year could see another warmsecond half to May but will it be as warm as last years second half?...

Models coming around to another -NAO drop after the warm up this week. So the period going into the Memorial Day weekend will be cooler than this week. Where was this pattern during the winter?;)

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6fcf36aed18e452b42d8c7de0526faee.gif

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models coming around to another -NAO drop after the warm up this week. So the period going into the Memorial Day weekend will be cooler than this week. Where was this pattern during the winter?;)

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6fcf36aed18e452b42d8c7de0526faee.gif

 

 

 

I was touting this drop a few days ago and I was laughed at.

The AO is also forecasted to drop.

Bring back the blocking and storminess.

ao.sprd2.gif

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models coming around to another -NAO drop after the warm up this week. So the period going into the Memorial Day weekend will be cooler than this week. Where was this pattern during the winter?;)

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6fcf36aed18e452b42d8c7de0526faee.gif

 

 

 

the blocking regime we just had has flushed the polar region of anomalous cold so at least we won't have the departures we just did

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the blocking regime we just had has flushed the polar region of anomalous cold so at least we won't have the departures we just did

 

 

And the absolute 500 mb anomalies don't look as strong as the recent drop. Closer to +200 meters instead of the +440 we just experienced.

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the problem the last couple of years was the ao/nao was negative when it wasn't needed...especially in October...when the ao/nao went negative we did get decent snows...we got as much snow last year with the ao/nao mostly positive than 1968-69 when the ao was negative 99% 0f the time...

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14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the problem the last couple of years was the ao/nao was negative when it wasn't needed...especially in October...when the ao/nao went negative we did get decent snows...we got as much snow last year with the ao/nao mostly positive than 1968-69 when the ao was negative 99% 0f the time...

It's pretty rare for the lowest AO readings in both October and May to be lower than the whole DJFM like we got this year.

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