forkyfork Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: So much for the late month warm up, 12z GFS reloads a deep trough in the East around the 23rd after a 2 day warm up. an op run at 300+ hours. come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: an op run at 300+ hours, really? The GEFS mean agrees on troughing returning to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's the Euro vs all the other models. The GFS/UKMET/CMC keep the streams separate and the southern low gets suppressed. The Euro is the only one that has a phase and more tucked in low. The UKMET not being on board is big...the other 2 routinely bust at 5 days out. Euro also moving south is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sometimes the OP Euro gets phase happy with the two streams. Was it in February that it was the only model showing the phase which didn't happen? it's done that often since the upgrade a couple of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The UKMET not being on board is big...the other 2 routinely bust at 5 days out. Euro also moving south is telling. 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Sometimes the OP Euro gets phase happy with the two streams. Was it in February that it was the only model showing the phase which didn't happen? The EPS backed off just a hair but still has 1"+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The EPS backed off just a hair but still has 1"+ for NYC. compare to 0z though, it's clearly S and E of that run--1 inch barely gets up to I-84 now...was up in VT last night...agree with Wave that this might be another Euro fantasy storm....should know by 12z tomorrow. Would still get the upper low swinging through to ruin Mother's day though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: compare to 0z though, it's clearly S and E of that run--1 inch barely gets up to I-84 now...was up in VT last night...agree with Wave that this might be another Euro fantasy storm....should know by 12z tomorrow. Would still get the upper low swinging through to ruin Mother's day though.... If it was the other way around and the GFS was hyping a storm while the Euro had nothing would you still support the GFS over the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: If it was the other way around and the GFS was hyping a storm while the Euro had nothing would you still support the GFS over the Euro? probably not, but in this scenario, the GFS has support from the UKMET and the CMC. JMA and Euro vs the rest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: probably not, but in this scenario, the GFS has support from the UKMET and the CMC. JMA and Euro vs the rest here. To be fair, the GEFS mean is well NW of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 That ULL is likely what's going to screw up the big storm idea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That ULL is likely what's going to screw up the big storm idea.... If you can get it all to come together you will end up with one massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Mount Holly's latest thoughts on the frost: "Clouds will diminish across the area this evening and then overnight skies will be clear to partly cloudy. There may be some ci/ac clouds moving in from the west after midnight. There appears to be a big enough window for the radiational cooling to allow temperatures to drop into freeze warning category across Carbon and Monroe counties. Lighter frost is expected in the adjacent counties so we will have advisories there. We will issue NPW flags as appropriate. Elsewhere, patchy frost is possible in srn NJ and the N/W suburbs Philadelphia. Winds will be light from the W or NW overnight. Lows will range from around 30 north and closer to 40 around metro Philadelphia." Upton's thoughts: "Shortwave currently in eastern Ontario will pivot around the center and track through the area between 06z and 12z tonight. BKN-OVC cloud cover may dissipate some this eve with the loss of heating...but mostly cloudy skies will return overnight as the shortwave and sfc trough move through. Majority of hi res models keep the area dry tonight...so have done the same. Amount of cloud cover tonight is tricky and min temps will be dependent on this. Lows are expected to range from lower to mid 40s at the coast and mid to upper 30s inland and in the pine barrens. There could also be patchy frost development in portions of the Lower Hudson Valley late tonight." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 12z PARA GFS still very wet this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 18z GFS continues with the theme of OTS coastal. ULL drops in for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 This weather sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 18z GFS continues with the theme of OTS coastal. ULL drops in for Sunday And the 18z GEFS mean was an inch + NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 GFS flip flops again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 The 06z GFS is a driving rainstorm for this Saturday, a slow moving intense coastal that rides up the coast. Looks to be a 24-30 hour event verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 archambault event. Forky mentioned this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Oh look, the GFS caved, shocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Euro wins again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: So this weekend looks like it will be cool and rainy. EPS has been signaling a warm up for the following weekend. Million dollar question is what the pattern will be like for Memorial Day weekend? Ensembles are split between a deepening trough into the Plains vs further East into the Lakes. Whatever ends up happening will have a large impact on our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Wow! It's probably overdone but both the Euro and GFS have slow moving convection. The GFS actually stalls and cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's probably overdone but both the Euro and GFS have slow moving convection. The GFS actually stalls and cuts off. you think? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: you think? lol Well you have a strengthening LLJ passing overhead and then it closes off the mid-level centers in a perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 remember when the euro showed 30's for nyc? last night's low was 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2017 Author Share Posted May 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: remember when the euro showed 30's for nyc? last night's low was 47 Yeah, the cold raw 2mT Euro bias we discussed last week around NYC. Too bad the Euro MOS isn't easily available which may correct for it. Almost looks like the model treats NYC as more rural for some reason since the raw 2m's got the freeze yesterday in BGM correct. Same problem with snow cover in the winter with the extreme -10 to -15 lows on occasion in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: remember when the euro showed 30's for nyc? last night's low was 47 Last night was unusually warm given 850s were like -5C. Not sure what happened...maybe weak WAA in the lower levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Last night was noticeably warmer than the two previous. I think it may have had to do with cloud cover as it was mostly overcast here last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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