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Late April-Early May Heavy Rain/Severe Possibilities


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42 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

yeah that models has both trains overlapping...the first part of that(i.e. today) looks to be a little SE though.............

Curious to see how much rain falls here tonight.  The NAM/GFS are putting that 2" band through here but the HRRR has consistently been less bullish or farther east.  Don't have a lot of confidence in 2" amounts here at this point, but if something like it does occur, then it's step 1 of priming the pump.

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SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind may persist another 1-2 hours across
the watch area. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected as
inhibition increases with loss of daytime.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to track northeast from central IN toward northeast
IN/northwest OH. These storms are in a zone of modest MUCAPE in the
500-1000 J/kg range with 50+ kt effective shear. This will maintain
activity for several hours, but as inhibition increases with loss of
heating, and as storms move into region of poorer low-level
moisture, gradual weakening is expected. In fact, latest 7km CAPPI
trends indicate this weakening is already underway. Expect the
severe threat to persist another 1-2 hours before storms weaken. The
main threat will continue to be hail and strong winds. A downstream
watch is not expected.
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19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Bit sad this one is missing me to the west, because it is nonstop lightning as it passes by.

Kind of surprised the storms made it this far off somewhat intact.

That being said, I will say again what a big difference half-way decent mid-level lapse rates make.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Kind of surprised the storms made it this far off somewhat intact.

That being said, I will say again what a big difference half-way decent mid-level lapse rates make.

Yeah you can really tell the lapse rates are good when you get prolific lightning producers like this. Reminds me of storms in the 90s those always seemed to be great lightning producers.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC049-093-125-155-270430-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0009.170427T0326Z-170427T0430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1126 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan...
  Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Genesee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Northeastern Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 1230 AM EDT

* At 1125 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Laingsburg to near Byron to near Hartland, moving
  northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near,
  Gaines around 1130 PM EDT.
  Owosso and Durand around 1135 PM EDT.
  Holly, Corunna and Lennon around 1140 PM EDT.
  Swartz Creek and Henderson around 1145 PM EDT.
  Flushing, Grand Blanc and Goodrich around 1150 PM EDT.
  Flint, Mount Morris and Beecher around 1155 PM EDT.
  Davison and Clio around 1200 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Flint,
Owosso, New Lothrop, Grand Blanc, Clio, Perry, Holly, Davison,
Flushing and Laingsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 8436 4313 8393 4322 8393 4322 8346
      4288 8345 4262 8368 4278 8405 4284 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 212DEG 41KT 4290 8431 4283 8401 4266 8371

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BT
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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Jongerville got hit good it looks like, at least at the ASOS.

Yep, 69 MPH wind gust with 45 MPH sustained winds.

Beyond that, the biggest take away for me looking at the ASOS are the shifting winds (from S to SE to SW to NE then SE again). Had instability and moisture been a bit higher, things could have been notably worse today (from a tornado standpoint).

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32 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Yep, 69 MPH wind gust with 45 MPH sustained winds.

Beyond that, the biggest take away for me looking at the ASOS are the shifting winds (from S to SE to SW to NE then SE again). Had instability and moisture been a bit higher, things could have been notably worse today (from a tornado standpoint).

KOZW 270314Z AUTO 22039G60KT 10SM +RA SCT037 BKN065 BKN075 22/14 A2961 RMK AO2 P0010 T02190142

Pretty good for an AWOS site.

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I've been pretty busy lately, but wanted to post that the completely unexpected severe storm that rolled through here last night was one our better in several months. Almost constant lightning and a prolific pea sized hail producer. We also had a swatch of wind damage, producing 8 PNS reports in our county alone. It was fun to spot/chase.

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