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Cutoff Low 4/24-4/26


NJwx85

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Classic case of the dry slot east of the cutoff coming in stronger than expected. Some convection trying to get going just east of NC. The progress of that batch will determine how much rain we get here this afternoon and evening.

 

wv.jpg.9eaf409412fa96ed3b7e2fd36b13cc58.jpg

 

That dry push is down near VA beach and since the ULL is forecasted to move East and not North, it should stay down there, look at all the activity now South of Long Island moving NW. 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That batch currently south of LI is much lighter than the models were showing yesterday. It has more of a showery look that the solid blob on older  model runs. So we'll have to see how much the area east of the Delmarva/NJ can fill in as the day goes on for our rainfall potential.

That batch currently moving onshore was always supposed to be an initial band of showery activity, the main activity doesn't arrive until after 18z and comes up from OBX.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No one is calling bust, just saying there's the potential for one.   Bluewave is right, the action this AM and early PM is much lighter than forecast last evening.    Agree on the RGEM holding firm-if it bails at 12z then look out.

Agree to disagree, the activity looked showery at best until at least early afternoon.

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