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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01

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Possible additional tornado in NW Smith Co. north of Lindale on the property adjacent to my family's. One barn destroyed and a mature grove of pecan trees leveled. Luckily the house in the middle of it was undamaged.

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Per request with this being the same system

 

"In my opinion, lets just keep this forum for the entire event because there is NO ONE discussing it in the SE forum"

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Large enhanced area and 5% Tornado for Monday

 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1493618464884

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1493618531444

 

 

Strong Tornadoes mentioned in the outlook

 

 Beneath increasingly difluent flow aloft, frontal and orographic
   forcing for ascent are expected to aid initiation of thunderstorms
   near/east of Lake Erie, southward along the western slopes of
   central into southern Appalachians by 18-21Z.  This activity seems
   likely to eventually consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing
   squall line as it crosses the Allegheny mountains and plateau, and
   to the lee of the Blue Ridge, by early evening.  As it does, it
   probably will be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
   surface gusts, given the strength of the ambient wind fields, with
   damaging straight line winds becoming the predominant severe threat.
   However, supercell structures, within and perhaps ahead of the line
   as it evolves, may be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, one or
   two of which could be strong.

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Looks like there's some ground scouring in the drone video. Sure brings a different perspective to the damage that occurred.

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Northern Smith Co damage from when it started to line out and die. Looks like it put on one last burst. 

20170430_160858_zps8lctmxac.jpg

20170430_161221_zpslyr8hy2q.jpg

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The spinup on the line moving toward Pymatuning reservoir should be warned.  Smaller spin-ups than that have been putting down tornados with this system.

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Looks like they will go with an EF-1 on the Lindale one. That makes three years in a row with tornado damage in the immediate Lindale area.

Update: A possible separate EF-0 near Mineola. NWS survey ongoing.

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Eustace tornado upgraded to EF4. Canton tornado that hit the car dealership is still under review. This marks the strongest tornado in NWS FWD's area since the Garland/Rowlett EF4 on 12/26/2015.

C-xo7moWsAAQQPb.jpg:large

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18 hours ago, Calderon said:

Eustace tornado upgraded to EF4. Canton tornado that hit the car dealership is still under review. This marks the strongest tornado in NWS FWD's area since the Garland/Rowlett EF4 on 12/26/2015.

C-xo7moWsAAQQPb.jpg:large

So, I wasn't tracking this storm on radar when it was producing. Judging from the damage paths and time signatures, was this a double/simultaneous tornado event? If anyone has screen captures of this storm on radar (velocity, reflectivity - whatever you got), I would greatly appreciate seeing them if you don't mind sharing them.

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The EF-4 did exist simultaneously with an EF-2 between Eustace and Canton, although they were from two different cells in close proximity. The EF-4 was dropped by the northern cell and pretty much completely rain-wrapped, largely due to the proximity to the southern cell. The southern cell cycled very quickly and ended up dropping the EF-3 wedge that past on the east side of Canton.

 

lQAkWHK.gif

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707
NOUS44 KFWD 021651 CCA
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-022045-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1135 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...Public Information Statement...

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/29/17 TORNADOES...

.Corrected to add summary on the second Eastern Canton Tornado.

.Update...Adding final information to the existing 6 known
tornadoes and adding one additional tornado.

.Overview...

National Weather Service damage survey teams continued to survey
the damage across Henderson, Van Zandt, Rains and Hopkins
Counties. Multiple teams were deployed Sunday and Monday to piece
together the events that unfolded on April 29th, 2017. A total of
7 tornadoes occurred between 4:15 pm and 7:13 pm over the four
counties.

Synoptically, a deep low pressure system near the Four corners
continued to move east, causing early morning thunderstorms to
develop along the Texas Panhandle and into Oklahoma. A cold front
was moving southeast across the state and entered our northwestern
counties around sunrise. The strength of the cap was sufficient to
hamper any development until mid afternoon. Deep forcing for
ascent approached from from the west while remnant boundaries
associated with convection over far East Texas and West Louisiana
moved in from the east. By 3:30 PM, several parameters came
together for the rapid development of severe storms east of
Interstate 35/35E. Pre-frontal convection led to the development
of supercells, producing numerous tornadoes over a relatively
small area. Additional storm development quickly developed along
the cold front with several reports of large hail, and eventually
producing a brief EF-0 Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS)
tornado (Tornado #7).

The survey crew teams determined yesterday that there was indeed
a nearly 55 mile damage swath, yet found evidence that there
were two tornadoes which caused the damage. One tornado began in
western Henderson County and moved into central Van Zandt County.
This tornado occluded and dissipated, and a second, long track
tornado began nearby. This second tornado was the EF-3 which
produced damage on the east side of Canton, Fruitvale, Emory,
and finally dissipating near Lake Fork. The first tornado had
a track of approximately 12 miles, while the other had a track of
nearly 42 miles.

The tornadoes are listed below in chronological order and may
not match the same order as previous public information statements.
The tornado fatalities are listed below, yet more investigation is
needed to determine the number of injuries by each tornado. It is
known that at least 49 people were transported to area hospitals
because of Saturday`s tornadoes. These tornado numbers should
match the tornado numbering system on graphics on the main
NWS Fort Worth website.

.Tornado #1 Grand Saline Area...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph
Path Length /statute/:  1.54 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             04:15 PM CDT
Start Location:         5 SSW Grand Saline / Van Zandt County /
TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.6056 / -95.7526

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               04:18 PM CDT
End Location:           4 SSW Grand Saline / Van Zandt County /
TX
End Lat/Lon:            32.6272 / -95.7457

Summary: This tornado was observed by storm spotters and storm
chasers. This was fairly brief tornado, with damage noted only to
trees.

.Tornado #2 East Canton...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    75 mph
Path Length /statute/:  1.81 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   75 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             05:10 PM CDT
Start Location:         1 ESE Canton / Van Zandt County / TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.5405 / -95.8429

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               05:14 PM CDT
End Location:           2 ENE Canton / Van Zandt County / TX
End Lat/Lon:            32.5642 / -95.8299

Summary: This brief tornado occurred in nearly the same area of the
larger tornado which came through about an hour later. This tornado
caused damage to trees and a few barns, just southeast of the
city center of Canton.

.Tornado #3 Eustace to West Canton...

Rating:                 EF4
Estimated Peak Wind:    180 mph
Path Length /statute/:  21.94 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   1760 yards
Fatalities:             2
Injuries:               Unknown

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             05:29 PM CDT
Start Location:         2 N Log Cabin / Henderson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.2572 / -96.018

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               06:09 PM CDT
End Location:           4 W Canton / Van Zandt County / TX
End Lat/Lon:            32.5528 / -95.9306

Summary: This was the strongest tornado to occur during this event,
with damage consistent with an EF4 winds was surveyed in the
community of Old Bethel in Van Zandt County.

A survey team found that this tornado began near the intersection of
FM 2813 and 2329, or about two miles north of the town of Log Cabin
in northwestern Henderson County. The tornado then tracked northeast
and crossed US-175 2 miles southeast of Eustace, before moving
towards the north after crossing FM 2709. Mainly tree damage was
observed from this location to the Van Zandt/Henderson County
border. More substantial damage to several residences then occurred
as this tornado crossed into southern Van Zandt County, consistent
with winds around 100 to 120 mph. Complete destruction to a mobile
home was observed here.

The tornado continued northward, and produced the most substantial
damage in a narrow corridor near the intersection of FM 2301 and
2313. All walls of a well constructed two story brick house
collapsed, with additional severe debarking of numerous trees
occurring on the property.
This damage is consistent with wind speeds around 175 to 185 mph. The
tornado reached its greatest width, roughly 1 mile, as it crossed SH-
198 where numerous high tension towers were demolished. The tornado
then gradually weakened as it curled towards the northwest, before
finally dissipating near SH-243, 2 miles outside of Canton.

.Tornado #4 Henderson County to South Van Zandt County...

Rating:                 EF2
Estimated Peak Wind:    125 mph
Path Length /statute/:  11.82 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               Unknown

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             05:41 PM CDT
Start Location:         3 NE Log Cabin / Henderson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.251 / -95.9803

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               06:04 PM CDT
End Location:           9 NE Eustace / Van Zandt County / TX
End Lat/Lon:            32.4061 / -95.9025

Summary: This tornado developed northeast of Log Cabin with the first
visible damage associated to snapped trees. As the tornado moved
north/northeast, a tall communications tower was snapped in half.
Eventually, the tornado crossed paths with several homes which led
to complete destruction and many debarked trees. The damage path
continued to the northeast, eventually stopping near the
intersection of Van Zandt County Road 2903 and FM 1256. As this
tornado occluded and dissipated, the next tornado began in the next
few minutes.

.Tornado #5 Eastern Canton Tornado...

Rating:                 EF3
Estimated Peak Wind:    145 mph
Path Length /statute/:  40.05 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   1760 yards
Fatalities:             2
Injuries:               Unknown

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             06:08 PM CDT
Start Location:         10 S Canton / Van Zandt County / TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.3991 / -95.8756

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               07:28 PM CDT
End Location:           6 NE Emory / Rains County / TX
End Lat/Lon:            32.954 / -95.6987

Summary: This tornado began as tornado #4 dissipated and the
supercell cycled another tornado about a mile to the east and
northeast. This tornado quickly grew to a large tornado, becoming
slightly less than one mile wide at its widest point. The tornado
was at the strongest near Interstate 20 and FM 17 just north of
Canton. The survey crews found continuous damage between Canton
and Fruitvale, and then additional damage as far north as Emory,
and Lake Fork. Several homes, businesses, and farm buildings
were damaged or destroyed in the 40 mile continuous damage path.
This tornado occurred for over an hour, and spanned most of Van
Zandt, and nearly all of Rains Counties during the 80 minute track.

.Tornado #6 Miller Grove to Cumby Area...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    85 mph
Path Length /statute/:  8.93 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               Unknown

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             06:32 PM CDT
Start Location:         4 NNE Point / Hopkins County / TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.9906 / -95.836

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               06:50 PM CDT
End Location:           1 SSE Cumby / Hopkins County / TX
End Lat/Lon:            33.1146 / -95.8302

Summary: Residents recorded video of a tornado near FM 1567 and
County Road 1137 shortly after 530 PM.  Tornado briefly had multiple
vortices but generally maintained a width of around 100 yards. The
tornado traveled north along County Road 1131 with mainly tree
damage observed.  A metal barn was destroyed near CR 1131 and CR
1120. A home was damaged along FM 275 south of I-30 near the end
of the track. The home burned after a large tree limb fell on the
main powerline into the home.

.Tornado # 7 Southwest Van Zandt County...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.88 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   80 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             04/29/2017
Start Time:             07:13 PM CDT
Start Location:         3 ENE Mabank / Van Zandt County / TX
Start Lat/Lon:          32.3859 / -96.0528

End Date:               04/29/2017
End Time:               07:15 PM CDT
End Location:           4 ENE Mabank / Van Zandt County / TX
End Lat/Lon:            32.3822 / -96.0384

Summary: This tornado was observed by residents of southwest Van
Zandt County, south of Van Zandt County road 2308. This tornado
occurred over open fields.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 TO 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 TO 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 TO 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 TO165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 TO 200mph
EF5...Violent...>200mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

Bain/Carlaw/Dunn/Fox/Godwin/Hernandez/McNatt/Ryan

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39 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

The EF-4 did exist simultaneously with an EF-2 between Eustace and Canton, although they were from two different cells in close proximity. The EF-4 was dropped by the northern cell and pretty much completely rain-wrapped, largely due to the proximity to the southern cell. The southern cell cycled very quickly and ended up dropping the EF-3 wedge that past on the east side of Canton.

 

lQAkWHK.gif

Thank you for this. Wasn't sure if this storm was some pilger type freak or what.

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Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but another enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow in eastern Texas & western Louisiana. SPC has mentioned the risk for discrete supercell thunderstorms with attendant large hail/tornado risk.

day2otlk_1730.png

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12z 3km NAM Sounding northeast of Houston, Texas for tomorrow. Looking like storm motion will be south and east.

nam4km_2017050212_033_30.73--94.35.png

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Jackson, MS NWS has confirmed at least 23 tornadoes from April 30.  I think they were all or mostly spawned out of that QLCS.

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