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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


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12 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

I don't think I've ever seen a blanket tornado warning like this.  Just shows how volitile the environment is this morning.

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Yeah I guess they feel they spin up so fast they wont have time to wait till they see the rotations on scans so warn everyone....they do that here in NC when we get landfalling canes, as the outer bands rotate in they usually blanket warn them for tornados since they form and die often in the time it takes the radar to scan once or twice. 

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12 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Structural damage in Flora, MS from a tornado, big TDS at the time. It's nuts how all of these what you would think are quick spin ups, are putting down decent tornadoes.

Yeah, the low level shear is pretty hellacious once again with ESRH running over 400 m**2/s**2 in proximity with the line, which in the presence of adequate to good mixed-layer shear, is probably helping these suckers spin up real quick despite being on the line.

 

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Could it be possible that the debris is more from straightline winds and the spinups are just lofting it high enough to be detected on radar? Sounds weird, but TDS from spinups aren't exactly common themselves.

 

Edit: Now that I think about it, this seems similar to the mini-outbreak in Kansas on May 19, 2012. They formed from a line and seemed very landspout-ish.

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4 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

Yeah, the low level shear is pretty hellacious once again with ESRH running over 400 m**2/s**2 in proximity with the line, which in the presence of adequate to good mixed-layer shear, is probably helping these suckers spin up real quick despite being on the line.

Higher-end shear in the lowest kilometer with 0-1km shear in excess of 35 knots, to as much as ~50 knots per mesoanalysis in Mississippi.

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8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

9 tornadoes on the SPC storm reports web page and it's only 11:54AM Eastern. This is kind of a bust in the opposite direction

It would have been pretty wild if the large scale pattern over the past few days didn't produce something. It just looks like most of the production will end up being east of I-35, but hey, that's really not climatologically unusual at all. 

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3 hours ago, JasonOH said:

I don't think I've ever seen a blanket tornado warning like this.  Just shows how volitile the environment is this morning.

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I think it comes down to office preference. Not everyone will do it and perhaps most won't.  I remember IND issuing blanket warnings that spanned like 100 miles from north to south on 4/19/2011.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think it comes down to office preference. Not everyone will do it and perhaps most won't.  I remember IND issuing blanket warnings that spanned like 100 miles from north to south on 4/19/2011.

I live near Baton Rouge and from having gone to multiple spotter training events with the New Orleans office it is important to recognize that many significant tornadoes here were not even close to evident one frame, there destroying homes the next and gone the next after that. One of our mets worked in the plains offices for a while and he said it is really hard to get a handle on when to issue tornado warnings here because we get a lot in the line, during hurricanes or in otherwise vast walls of rain. FWIW it is the first time I recall them issuing a warning like that in the many years I have lived here. 

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Here is the latest from NWS Fort Worth/Dallas on yesterday's tornadoes from Eustace-Canton-Fruitvale-Emory. Tornado #4 could be approximately 51 miles long and have been on the ground for 1 hour and 47 minutes. Tornado #3 was also a long-track tornado on the ground for approximately 40 minutes. On a day when no one expected anything besides brief tornadoes. Wow. It will be interesting to see what the ratings of these tornadoes are. That is a lot of ground to cover so it may take a while to complete those surveys.

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