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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


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1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

Taken from Mr. Reimer's page...



655PM: Getting reports of small debris from Canton tornado falling 30-50 miles downstream. This was a major, major tornado... #txwx

Not surprised at all given how high debris was lofted into the air per CC... NBC 5 in Dallas had reported 2x4s falling from the sky near Fruitvale.

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3 minutes ago, Natester said:

Just curious, where there any reports of fatalities from the tornadoes in Texas today?  Hopefully there aren't any.

There was 1 reported fatality so far when the tornado crossed I-20 and threw a vehicle 200 yards(feet?). Hoping we don't see any more.

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8 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

There was 1 reported fatality so far when the tornado crossed I-20 and threw a vehicle 200 yards(feet?). Hoping we don't see any more.

It was on TX 64 just southeast of Canton, near a salvage yard. The car was tossed so far beyond a line of mostly stripped and denuded trees.

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I'd love to hear a postmortem on how the Van Zandt Co. tornados happened today.  It didn't look like there was nearly enough bulk shear for strong rotating updrafts in the midlevels, and visually the updrafts looked barely sheared when everything was in the towering cumulus stage, so notwithstanding the good low-level shear I was completely skeptical of tornados literally until the first tail end storm started spinning up.  Then all of a sudden that starts strongly rotating; then it's flanking updraft starts to rotate (that turns into the Canton storm) and so on for the next 2 or 3 updrafts.  So whatever was happening there, it was repeatable and not a fluke.

Also, I was out with Silver Lining Tours thanks to a tip from someone on this forum back in 2016 and obviously today was a home run for me, so thanks to whoever dropped that recommendation back when.  They were great and professional. 

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Outflow boundaries in North Texas are very evil. Storms late morning in far east/southeast Texas pushed an outflow boundary west. That's why we ended up with multiple tornadic supercells from near Gun Barrel City northeast to Emory. Winds back near and just east of that boundary, thus turning a fairly typical severe threat into an outbreak of tornadoes. Canton just ended up being the unlucky bullseye for at least three of them. Not the first time an OFB has turned a 'normal' SVR day into something much worse. April 3, 2012, May 15, 2013, and now April 29, 2017. When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected as the late Al Moller constantly said. First light tomorrow will reveal just how bad things are in Van Zandt county. We've got a Facebook group put together to help disseminate and communicate needs of those impacted. https://www.facebook.com/groups/texasdisasterrecovery

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10 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

I'd love to hear a postmortem on how the Van Zandt Co. tornados happened today.  It didn't look like there was nearly enough bulk shear for strong rotating updrafts in the midlevels, and visually the updrafts looked barely sheared when everything was in the towering cumulus stage, so notwithstanding the good low-level shear I was completely skeptical of tornados literally until the first tail end storm started spinning up.  Then all of a sudden that starts strongly rotating; then it's flanking updraft starts to rotate (that turns into the Canton storm) and so on for the next 2 or 3 updrafts.  So whatever was happening there, it was repeatable and not a fluke.

Also, I was out with Silver Lining Tours thanks to a tip from someone on this forum back in 2016 and obviously today was a home run for me, so thanks to whoever dropped that recommendation back when.  They were great and professional. 

Believe the boundary put out by that HP supercell--turned compact MCS-- in Louisiana earlier on in the day played a significant role in storm intensification. The 00Z SHV RAOB was fairly impressive to begin with in the low-levels (ESRH of ~400 m2/s2), but that ambient environment coupled with the boundary and extreme instability in Texas made it all come together... Well all that and very low LCLs.

 

Just another reminder that the 0-1km/0-3km layer are really what matters the most.

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Thanks guys - super helpful.  I was so focused on worrying about the cold front undercutting the storms (which had happened to the first batch back on Gainesville) that I totally forgot that the big Shreveport supercell probably pushed ou a boundary.  That makes a lot of sense.  FWIW, I did notice that when we got down into the rotating storms, temps were slightly cooler, air slightly moister, winds more backed and, of course LCLs were insanely low (watching the inflow screaming in seemingly so close that you could reach up to touch it was very cool).

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That had to be over 1 1/2 wide at one point. Unreal video

:50 to around 1:55 reminds me a lot of the Wynnewood/Sulphur, OK tornado last year... insane. Meteorologically, and chasing-wise a true diamond-in-the-rough, otherwise a tragic event that changed many lives forever. 

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