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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

ARC131-OKC079-135-290400-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170429T0400Z/
Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND NORTHEASTERN LE
FLORE COUNTIES...

At 1045 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 3 miles north of Cameron, moving north at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Poteau...
Greenwood...                      Barling...
Pocola...                         Spiro...
Arkoma...                         Panama...
Hackett...                        Bonanza...
Cameron...                        Moffett...
Excelsior...                      Jenny Lind...
Shady Point...                    Rock Island...
Scullyville...                    Braden...
Mill Creek...                     Rye Hill...

This includes Interstate 540 between mile markers 9 and 14.
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The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Sebastian County in west central Arkansas...
  Southwestern Crawford County in northwestern Arkansas...
  Southeastern Sequoyah County in east central Oklahoma...
  Northeastern Le Flore County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 1145 PM CDT
    
* At 1057 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm with strong low level
  rotation that could produce a tornado at any time was located over
  Bonanza, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
  Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
  Alma...                           Barling...
  Pocola...                         Lavaca...
  Spiro...                          Arkoma...
  Mulberry...                       Dyer...
  Hackett...                        Bonanza...
  Moffett...                        Rudy...
  Figure Five...                    Jenny Lind...
  Kibler...                         Central City...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 22.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 327 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 14.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 30.

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0584
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/western AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...

   Valid 290349Z - 290445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A small part of northern/western AR is being monitored for
   possible Tornado Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A small part of Watch 172 and vicinity is being
   considered for possible Tornado Watch issuance. A supercell
   approaching the Fort Smith area has shown signs of possible tornado
   development. This activity is ingesting near-surface-based inflow
   along a frontal zone extending eastward across parts of northern AR.
   The air mass south of this boundary is very moist, supporting
   2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Long/looping hodographs could support
   conditional tornado potential if discrete supercell structures were
   to be maintained along the frontal zone. There is uncertainty
   regarding this notion -- especially given some potential for storm
   motion to be slightly directed to the north of the boundary --
   though some tornado risk may exist during the next few hours.

   ..Cohen/Thompson.. 04/29/2017
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Complex setup with cells crossing the boundary at a large angle, but with the LLJ driving a moist, unstable airmass northward at the same time. Agree with SPC that the setup may remain favorable in the near-term, but probably not much beyond 06-07z as storms outrun sizable surface-based buoyancy and ingest less favorable boundary layer air with time.

IMG_1458.JPG.5276b62d253bda3140a50e7a7f50b9f9.JPG

 

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8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

So, do you think a tornado tracked from Poteau, OK to Cameron, OK? I am not sure, but it was a narrow rotation.

Strong rotation now near Gainesville, MO

Almost certainly. Significant CC drop coincided with relatively strong TVS & it had a 65dbz debris ball. 

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10 minutes ago, Chinook said:

So, do you think a tornado tracked from Poteau, OK to Cameron, OK? I am not sure, but it was a narrow rotation.

Strong rotation now near Gainesville, MO

Wouldn't be surprised if there were isolated significant damage from the tornado little bit ago near Cameron OK area. Could have been a fairly significant tornado

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42 minutes ago, JoJo said:

Wouldn't be surprised if there were isolated significant damage from the tornado little bit ago near Cameron OK area. Could have been a fairly significant tornado

With the debris ball and the CC deficit on radar it surely hit something, question is a farm, any other building or forest and woods.

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9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Same for the one southwest of it, that one should move toward OKC in the next couple of hours.

Wondering if this is going to be like last Friday, where eventually all of these cells merge into a forward-propagating MCS that smokes the Metro. Only this time, it would be a couple hours before sunrise rather than a couple hours after.

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Just now, aurora said:

Wondering if this is going to be like last Friday, where eventually all of these cells merge into a forward-propagating MCS that smokes the Metro. Only this time, it would be a couple hours before sunrise rather than a couple hours after.

Eventually that will happen, but these cells are getting pretty close to OKC so, it might happen east of the city at this rate.

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I'm targeting Corsicana or Athens today, hoping to catch a discrete storm before the inevitable line out. CAMs are only so-so, but it's close enough to me to where it might be worth the risk. Right on cue, convection is firing in ESE Texas, and hopefully the mesohigh from their outflow can back the surface winds a little extra over east Texas this afternoon.

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