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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


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1 hour ago, okiestormgeek said:

There are some local amateur mets in the OKC area predicting a few significant tornadoes in the C OK tonight. 

Latest from Reed Timmer

 

Forecast soundings sure do support tornadoes late tonight in central/eastern OK, NW AR! Storms likely not initiating until well after dark.

 

C-haeSUVoAAGSQ-.jpg:large

 

 

Update: multiple rounds of severe weather, isolated tornado threat thru tonight! First in MO Boot Heel to W KY then after dark OK to NW AR pic.twitter.com/5LkFSJHYXz

 
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I can't help but marvel at the amount of things that have come together to mitigate the potential over basically this entire stretch. Wednesday trough too amplified leading to messy wind profiles -> also leads to surging cold front removing any of Thursday's potential -> early shortwave passage leads to veering/weakening of the low level flow further west today -> late timing of the primary upper trough leads to problems with the cap before dark -> amplification by Saturday leads to excess upper level divergence and poor mid/upper level wind profiles unfavorable for non-linear/non-HP storm modes.

That is one heck of a laundry list that no forecaster 5+ days out would've seen coming (or even anticipated closer in frankly).


I have zero doubt that I cursed this setup by coming out to the Plains for this. As is starting to become tradition.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

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Tempting to turn our backs on the whole system after what's transpired, but I still can't ignore the sleeper threat for OK between about 9pm-2am tonight. The 18z NAM (and 3-km nest) wants to initiate several cells in the open warm sector near I-35 before 03z, which could mean big trouble, if it happened. Not too likely, though. The HRRR has been muted on that threat since mid-morning, but the last couple runs are bringing back warm sector storms by 05-06z. Looking at dProg/dt, the primary reason for the HRRR's pessimism has been a downward trend in low-level moisture since those morning runs. Current obs across the Red River Valley are broadly moister than the HRRR, though perhaps a touch drier than the NAM. By 03z, the difference in moisture between the two models across the southern half of OK is monumental, for short lead time. Overall, if obs the next 2-3 hours tend more toward the NAM forecast, I think a respectable tornado threat (and big hail threat) could evolve in OK during the mid-late evening hours roughly from US-281 eastward and I-40 southward.

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14 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

Tempting to turn our backs on the whole system after what's transpired, but I still can't ignore the sleeper threat for OK between about 9pm-2am tonight. The 18z NAM (and 3-km nest) wants to initiate several cells in the open warm sector near I-35 before 03z, which could mean big trouble, if it happened. Not too likely, though. The HRRR has been muted on that threat since mid-morning, but the last couple runs are bringing back warm sector storms by 05-06z. Looking at dProg/dt, the primary reason for the HRRR's pessimism has been a downward trend in low-level moisture since those morning runs. Current obs across the Red River Valley are broadly moister than the HRRR, though perhaps a touch drier than the NAM. By 03z, the difference in moisture between the two models across the southern half of OK is monumental, for short lead time. Overall, if obs the next 2-3 hours tend more toward the NAM forecast, I think a respectable tornado threat (and big hail threat) could evolve in OK during the mid-late evening hours roughly from US-281 eastward and I-40 southward.

In the short term, convergence is gradually increasing across southeastern Oklahoma where mesoanalysis shows minimal CINH and weak echoes are popping up on radar. Satellite imagery displays some modest agitation in cu fields, but subtle 12hr height rises will probably prohibit deep convective development through 00-01z. If there's a narrow, highly conditional window for something robust popping in Oklahoma before it gets too dark, watch the area in the general vicinity of McAlester over the next couple of hours. Should deep convection materialize, interaction with a warm front near I-40 could support a localized very large hail and tornado threat.

Otherwise, Brett has a good analysis of the threat later this evening. 
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FWD, LZK and OUN 00z soundings all show a continued capping inversion. OUN has weak flow up to about 800mb, so based on trends and observations, we'll need the LLJ response to overcome neutral/rising heights and nebulous large scale forcing. 

CFE7449B-649F-44BC-89DE-3E1D3271A078-15319-0000097ECF20062E.gif.a8073877d8f757b6d5bb5cc1b95fb1c4.gif

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23 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

Yeah, we can most likely forget about the OK threat at this point. To put the cherry on top of this trainwreck of a week, the Oklahoma Mesonet's servers went down right after everyone left work this evening, so we can't even see how moisture is verifying. :lmao:

Agreed. Still looks like we may see a nasty squall line around 4-5AM. 

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

TW for Fort Smith, that storm has the look of one that could produce significantly too.

High-end inflow environmental parameter space, but the cell should be moving into a less favorable air-mass with time. 

IMG_1451.thumb.JPG.09084f88132db48af64fc89715e5ffa9.JPG

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

TW for Fort Smith, that storm has the look of one that could produce significantly too.

Starting to look better, surprised there isn't more talk about this one. Moving into a populated area. 

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