Quincy Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 SPC nudged the moderate risk a bit farther north into Arkansas, although I think the greatest supercell tornado threat will be to the south, from far East Texas into western/central/northern Louisiana. While low-level flow may be more backed across Arkansas, less instability is likely and the window for discrete convection appears quite narrow. I'd suspect more of a QLCS tornado threat north of the AR/LA border. SHV 12z sounding shows steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML plume and has that loaded gun-type look. The large cap should help keep the warm sector largely uncontaminated this morning, but once convection starts to fire, by early afternoon, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Kinda quiet in here for a day with a 15 percent hatched TOR from spc. Must be fact Friday is in chaser territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Golf balls and hen eggs this morning in Cedar Hill, TX ~30 mins SSW of Dallas. As an aside, it's a cool place, highest elevation in the area. Cell was semi-discrete but rather messy. Eventually a double line structure formed in the metroplex, with the aforementioned cell growing upscale somewhat out ahead of the cold front, with another thin line back to the NW right along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Possible tornado NW of Clarksville, AR. Could be a debris sig but tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Lots of QLCS circulations in the line moving through the Ozarks/Ouchitas. Edit: could be a debris sig west of Plainview, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Skywarn net for C AR is live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 70/50 probs is nothing to laugh at. Looks pretty linear right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Nocturnal tornado threats in Oklahoma/north Texas are not very common, but latest NAM would seem to yield a chance of overnight tornadoes Friday night/Saturday morning in north TX and southern and MAYBE central OK. This is assuming surface based convection. Trends from 0z, 6z, and now 12z NAM are to keep inching the instability axis further north. Warm front looks pretty close to I-44 overnight now on latest run. Actually, matches up pretty well with SPC's Day 3 outlook. Some of the more experienced posters can correct me if I'm not looking at something right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, natecast said: Nocturnal tornado threats in Oklahoma/north Texas are not very common, but latest NAM would seem to yield a chance of overnight tornadoes Friday night/Saturday morning in north TX and southern and MAYBE central OK. This is assuming surface based convection. Trends from 0z, 6z, and now 12z NAM are to keep inching the instability axis further north. Warm front looks pretty close to I-44 overnight now on latest run. Actually, matches up pretty well with SPC's Day 3 outlook. Some of the more experienced posters can correct me if I'm not looking at something right... NAM also favors a potentially significant event on Saturday across SE OK/NE TX/W and N AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 12z gfs kicks the LLJ tad sooner this run, also initiates before 00z in this environment. *SE of Wichita Falls* * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Becoming more and more convinced this afternoon will be active in N Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 I don't really believe that Saturday will be a "big" day outside of a potential MCS and the potential for flash flooding. The NAMs evolution is close to the ECMWF/GFS solution with the meridional jet, but then again its the NAM at 81 hours out. Pretty much worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Becoming more and more convinced this afternoon will be active in N Louisiana. I still prefer that area over Arkansas. Capping inversion remains strong over Louisiana, but CINH is eroding over East Texas where we could see a mixed mode of convection develop over the next 2-3 hours. Definitely watch any prefrontal cells closely later this afternoon. On a side note, if we were a few weeks deeper into the year and we didn't have the issue of depleted moisture return, tomorrow could have been a sleeper severe day in western Oklahoma. As it stands, the low level jet cranks tomorrow evening with favorable deep layer shear, but surface-based instability is poor. The area will probably see some convection, but I doubt it's significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: I don't really believe that Saturday will be a "big" day outside of a potential MCS and the potential for flash flooding. The NAMs evolution is close to the ECMWF/GFS solution with the meridional jet, but then again its the NAM at 81 hours out. Pretty much worthless. I don't either. Just stating verbatim what it shows. Impressive parameter space with numerous discrete/semi-discrete storms by 00Z. Even if a significant parameter-space develops, storm motions would likely inhibit a more significant event due to the likelihood of multiple storm interactions among other things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 does Friday looking like a nocturnal tornado threat for S/C OK N. TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: does Friday looking like a nocturnal tornado threat for S/C OK N. TX? It appears there will be one, yes. Especially if a storm or two remains discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 GFS continuously highlighting the area south of the Red River between Wichita Falls and Dallas for CI on Fri. Parameters are pretty impressive in this area to. Nam continues to suggest the llj will be dislocated to the east while gfs/euro suggest a new branch will form west closer to developing SFC low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Latest vis satellite appears to show some clearing/break in the clouds in south central AR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Just now, SluggerWx said: Latest vis satellite appears to show some clearing/break in the clouds in south central AR... Moderate to strong heating occurring in that corridor from south-central AR to western LA and East TX, along the theta-e axis. Also seeing surface dew-points around 70 in northwestern LA. 18z SHV sounding is a bit sloppy, with some capping and backed mid-level winds. Enlarged low-level hodographs, however, and HRRR suggests some veering of 700mb winds will occur over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Surprised at the amount of clearing and moisture we are seeing in arklatex region. At the very least would expect widespread severe reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Hodograph derived from the VWP from SHV looks okay, so we may see some more robust storms out towards that way once we get deeper into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Becoming more and more convinced this afternoon will be active in N Louisiana. Agreed. I like that area in north central LA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 FWIW, the 12z ECMWF looks really solid for some action along the Red River area on Friday. Nice bullseye near Paris, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Agreed. I like that area in north central LA as well. Overlay of CAPE, shear, low LCLs and window for supercells is greatest in northern LA, but it's still a somewhat conditional threat pending discrete convection. 700-600mb wind fields throw a bit of a red flag, but the wind profile should improve at least some by mid-afternoon. If a sustained cell goes up ahead of the line, it will have a high probability of producing a significant tornado. Any QLCS tornadoes with the line would likely be comparatively short-lived and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Totally agree Quincy. I don't think we're going to see a lot of discrete activity, but conditions should be moderately favorable for QLCS tornadoes and wind/hail reports in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 35 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: FWIW, the 12z ECMWF looks really solid for some action along the Red River area on Friday. Nice bullseye near Paris, TX Yeah, and the Canadian doubled down on its positive trend from last night. GFS trending the right way, too, thought not as bullish with the LLJ. Finally, the 00z MPAS looks pretty solid along the RR Valley and convects explosively between 21z-00z. The ingredients are coming together for a respectable threat over N TX on most of the global models, but the NAM is a holdout, with cool air to the N throwing off the MSLP field and kind of spoiling the setup. Unfortunately, we've seen plenty of situations where it's right about that in the early season, so I'm waiting to see whether it will cave over the next 24 h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 I'm confident that the mode is going to remain unfavorable through this evening's event. That wind profile is not going to cut it. SPC has been really bullish with tornado probs on days that suggest an unfavorable storm mode for a significant tornado event. I'll eat my socks if that 15% hatched ends up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: I'm confident that the mode is going to remain unfavorable through this evening's event. That wind profile is not going to cut it. SPC has been really bullish with tornado probs on days that suggest an unfavorable storm mode for a significant tornado event. I'll eat my socks if that 15% hatched ends up verifying. I agree, took a good look at output and at best we have hope for a nice qlcs spin up or two. Edit: Looking at spc 105p update, they did say threat for strong tornadoes is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 I'm actually okay with the way the end of the line looks as far as cell spacing goes, still some definite potential for semi-discrete supercells later on... But that kink in the low-level hodograph is really demoralizing and if that doesn't fix the tornado threat will be significantly tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 The SPC SSEO has been bullish on a tornado threat in AR this afternoon. I'd honestly be quite surprised if we saw more than 5 tornadoes out of today from anything outside of Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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