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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


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Just now, Stebo said:

Your class status is irrelevant though if you are about to graduate, I would suggest if you are going to make a qualitative post about something back it up with data and reasoning. You should be able to if you are as far along in the degree as you are suggesting.

Couldn't have said it better myself! In this thread you have to back what you say, not someone else's word on it. Clearly you are done arguing because you have no argument. Your replies show your maturity. We all respect each other pretty well in here and you are being cocky and condescending to people with vast knowledge in meteorology. I hate to go off topic about the setup we are suppose to be discussing but I needed to rant. Anywho eager to see 0z data. Can't get much worse right? Ha. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Couldn't have said it better myself! In this thread you have to back what you say, not someone else's word on it. Clearly you are done arguing because you have no argument. Your replies show your maturity. We all respect each other pretty well in here and you are being cocky and condescending to people with vast knowledge in meteorology. I hate to go off topic about the setup we are suppose to be discussing but I needed to rant. Anywho eager to see 0z data. Can't get much worse right? Ha. 

Yep completely agree, and also be willing to admit fault and being wrong. If the data about data assimilation and RAOBs shows that I am wrong, I have no issue admitting that.  I am 9 years removed from college and still constantly learning because if you don't learn post college you will never advance in this field, it will pass you by before you realize it.

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10 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

00z NAM brings a nice tongue of 60s DPs into southern OK by 12Z Friday... But shows significant cyclogenesis occuring on Thursday evening which complicates things...

Yea that late night cyclogenesis really screws up Fri on GFS. It pushes everything east away from incoming jet. Did Euro show this to? 

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Also, FWIW, over on the EC this would be a scenario where we would be looking at the ensembles to see what percentage of the solutions were showtime.   I rarely see ensembles in the severe threads, which is interesting since they're such a critical tool for EC storms.

I'm probably chasing for the first time within the next 3 weeks (thankfully, someone else doing the driving) so I am just a total noooooob when it comes to this . . . 

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea that late night cyclogenesis really screws up Fri on GFS. It pushes everything east away from incoming jet. Did Euro show this to? 

Euro doesnt really show cyclogenesis on thursday, but the low-level flow is still veered significantly friday morning thanks in part to the large spiraling high pressure east of florida.

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The intense s/w modeled for Thursday does look problematic for Friday's event (see attached). Needless to say, Thursday itself would be a big threat if not for the moisture scouring behind tomorrow's system. I can't recall a single case in April around here where a s/w like this moved through, and then another on its heels led to a major severe weather event the following day. In fairness, this is a somewhat unusual pattern.

500hv.us_c.thumb.png.222ae3094e65b4937ebf6b4fc760aace.png

 

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Yeah... That S/W and the associated cyclogenesis that occurs is definitely looking like the biggest fly in the ointment at this point to me, still time for some change. On another note, the 00Z GFS, much like the 00Z NAM is quicker to get into a favorable moisture return pattern. We'll have to see if that changes anything, but I doubt it will.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Yeah... That S/W and the associated cyclogenesis that occurs is definitely looking like the biggest fly in the ointment at this point to me, still time for some change. On another note, the 00Z GFS, much like the 00Z NAM is quicker to get into a favorable moisture return pattern. We'll have to see if that changes anything, but I doubt it will.

A step in the right direction but def worried about low level wind fields if we get too many lows. The weakening from Thurs night and new one developing later Fri. Could screw up LLJ axis

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GFA improved a bit in many regards. Moisture return is a bit better, lead shortwave is weaker and main shortwave Friday afternoon looks a little more consolidated. LLJ axis still looks meh, but overall this threat certainly doesn't look dead yet. 

 

Edit;  looking at some forcast soundings for SE Oklahoma, it actually doesn't look that bad. 

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2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

GFA improved a bit in many regards. Moisture return is a bit better, lead shortwave is weaker and main shortwave Friday afternoon looks a little more consolidated. LLJ axis still looks meh, but overall this threat certainly doesn't look dead yet. 

Definitely more favorable than the 12z run but a long ways to go. Far from over

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11 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Not utterly amazing because low-level winds are fairly modest (see kink in low-level hodo), but its not too bad. Directional shear is fantastic in the lowest 3km. Near the Red River Friday at 7pm.2017042500_GFS_096_34.13,-97.96_severe_m

Wouldn't take much more to significantly improve this. This run quickly weakened that overnight low and developed the one Fri quicker. Hopefully that trend continues

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Wednesday looks like a tamer version of 4/25/11. That period in late April is an example of things going almost entirely perfect for bigger April severe stretches. This time around, it looks more like run-of-the-mill stuff (at least compared to the last few months of April), if not a downright train wreck given the synoptic pattern.

 
Tuesday looks like a borderline cap bust, although there may be a very narrow window for a tornado in the north-central/northeast OK to southeast KS vicinity early in the evening. Models have waffled a bit with convective initiation in the 00-02z time frame with a very quick linear transition. 
 
Wednesday still has issues, but could, at the very least, produce a few brief QLCS tornadoes. If shear vectors were less parallel to the surface boundary, it would probably be a central Arkansas local climo tornado event with channeling of backed low-level flow pairing with a seasonably impressive CAPE/shear overlay. Still, enlarged 0-1km hodographs and more than adequate deep layer speed shear could allow for a few short-lived supercell tornadoes. 
 
I'm not getting into details for late week just yet...
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Mitigating factors for tomorrow are that surface parcels may be capped ahead of the frontal advance and shear vectors near the front are more parallel to it. Conditions up against the front might be supportive of tornadoes though. I'm just wondering if clustery or even LEWP convective modes closer to the front will be more of the norm.

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3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

A bit SE of the good chase region in OK. Although if the shortwave early Friday continues to trend weaker and the warm front can get a bit further north, that might change. 

If you're speaking of 12z GFS, directly it would highlight threat from Wichita Falls -> I-35, which is a fine chase region. Not saying this is how it'll happen, but the general area modeled by 12z is fine chasing area.

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A combination of the Thursday evening shortwave shearing out more quickly and a slightly earlier/more coherent shortwave the following evening is allowing some just-in-time lee-side cyclogenesis to occur in west Texas. We'll see how this trends with other guidance and successive model runs, since it has been flaky recently.

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