Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


Recommended Posts

12z GFS and 00z Euro now both showing Thursday/Saturday threat contained to southern/eastern OK or Arkansas. GFS drives a front into central Texas Wednesday and never quite fully recovers into OK by Thursday afternoon. The surface low is more of a surface trough extending across OK instead of a nice closed surface feature which is kind of what we just dealt with yesterday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 794
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Latest from FWD regarding next Friday-weekend

 

Friday and into the weekend does have the potential to be a bit
more active in terms of weather as a trough should dig far south
enough into the region to provide sufficient lift for
precipitation. With adequate values of CAPE and favorable shear
profiles, the stage could be set for another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms across North and Central TX. Right now,
details are a little unclear, but just about all modes of severe
weather appear plausible.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, thewxmann said:


How so? The CMC/UK were the first to sniff out the last NE snowstorm and the UK was the first to sniff out Matthew's turn towards the CONUS. It's a valid concern.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
 

Lol, I see you found your opening. It would be shocking because it is the lead wave and not nearly as strong the wave for Friday. Models often mistakenly over emphasize the lead wave only to come back as we get closer. You can site two instances neither of which are severe weather, I'll site the countless times where the lead wave is the moisture pump for a big event behind it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol, I see you found your opening. It would be shocking because it is the lead wave and not nearly as strong the wave for Friday. Models often mistakenly over emphasize the lead wave only to come back as we get closer. You can site two instances neither of which are severe weather, I'll site the countless times where the lead wave is the moisture pump for a big event behind it.


I mean... you were literally asking for it with a blanket statement like that without anything to back it up. I'm aware there are many instances where the lead wave opens it up for subsequent events. That doesn't ensure that will be the case this time.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, thewxmann said:


I mean... you were literally asking for it with a blanket statement like that without anything to back it up. I'm aware there are many instances where the lead wave opens it up for subsequent events. That doesn't ensure that will be the case this time.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
 

Ok, we will see what happens then, not going to waste my time arguing this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Lol, I see you found your opening. It would be shocking because it is the lead wave and not nearly as strong the wave for Friday. Models often mistakenly over emphasize the lead wave only to come back as we get closer. You can site two instances neither of which are severe weather, I'll site the countless times where the lead wave is the moisture pump for a big event behind it.

I think that the CAA behind the lead wave could be overdone as well. Citing the fact that it isn't nearly as strong of a wave and that climatology for this time as a whole would suggest otherwise. In my experience, huge sweeping cold fronts that clear the plains of moisture are rare this time of year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, thewxmann said:


I mean... you were literally asking for it with a blanket statement like that without anything to back it up. I'm aware there are many instances where the lead wave opens it up for subsequent events. That doesn't ensure that will be the case this time.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
 

I love you. We all change but you stay the same. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

At face value, the 12Z Euro is a train wreck for next week. 

It still manages something for Friday as instability does drive back north but nowhere near the potential of previous runs. Will have to see if this 12z suite is an outlier or not later on today. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

At face value, the 12Z Euro is a train wreck for next week. 

 

Just now, Stebo said:

It still manages something for Friday as instability does drive back north but nowhere near the potential of previous runs. Will have to see if this 12z suite is an outlier or not later on today. 

As well as Tuesday.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have to say, the bias against any opinion falling even slightly on the pessimistic side of the fence once the hype train has left the station can get tiring. In this case, have we learned nothing from the past several years? We just went through monster late April troughs in 2014 and 2016 that looked Andover-esque in the medium range, then the threat either shifted east out of chase alley (2014) or simply busted (2016). Yet another extremely hyped trough that failed to deliver was April 25-26, 2009. This time of year in the Plains, big troughs are big gambles: they can lead to terrifying outbreaks when the stars align, but that isn't the norm. And oftentimes, when they fall, they fall hard.

So anyway, yeah, this morning's runs are pretty depressing if you're specifically looking for an outbreak along and W of I-35. There's still plenty of time for it to move back toward earlier solutions, and it's not "over" by any means. In particular, if you're just talking about whether there will be a decent tornado event somewhere late next week, that's a pretty decent bet. I do understand we all have our personal perspectives and biases and they naturally get on each others' nerves this time of year, which is nothing new. This one just amuses me because I'm having flashbacks to some relatively similar situations in recent years where the naysayers generally were vindicated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm gonna have to say I am disappointed in the last two ECMWF runs. I don't care much for tornado events east of i-35 in OK.

 

Not over by any means, as there isn't great consistency at this point, but the fact it's trending the wrong way is concerning. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

I'm gonna have to say I am disappointed in the last two ECMWF runs. I don't care much for tornado events east of i-35 in OK.

 

Not over by any means, as there isn't great consistency at this point, but the fact it's trending the wrong way is concerning. 

I do not particularly care for anything east of I-35 as well. Terrain becomes a problem, its a jungle, and radar coverage generally becomes spottier. There's also just something majestic about supercells/tornadoes in the classic west-of-I35 corridor.

Changes between the 18z/00z GFS of yesterday and the 06z/12z runs today for Thursday's setup were mounimental, and changes in the 12Z euro yesterday compared to the 00z euro for Friday and Thursday were also significant. Lots of variability, so hopefully models will shift back tonight and tomorrow. Still 4 to 6 runs outside of the higher-level skill of any of the models. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely quite a ways out and I'm sure the GFS will do its best to put on a show again with the next few runs, but until the euro jumps back on board, I remain pessimistic. 

 

After all odds for truly spectacular events actually panning out are never in our favor. If they were the Plains would be uninhabitable.

 

Now I will say: subtle changes in flow aloft can change this in a hurry. I don't know how much I buy such a cold frontal surge given the anticipated evolution of the jet. Think it is more likely these waves evolve northeast rather than amplifying and diving a cold front into TX. It is far from over and definitely still holds incredible potential, but this is very clearly farrrrr from a done deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, brettjrob said:

Have to say, the bias against any opinion falling even slightly on the pessimistic side of the fence once the hype train has left the station can get tiring. In this case, have we learned nothing from the past several years? We just went through monster late April troughs in 2014 and 2016 that looked Andover-esque in the medium range, then the threat either shifted east out of chase alley (2014) or simply busted (2016). Yet another extremely hyped trough that failed to deliver was April 25-26, 2009. This time of year in the Plains, big troughs are big gambles: they can lead to terrifying outbreaks when the stars align, but that isn't the norm. And oftentimes, when they fall, they fall hard.

So anyway, yeah, this morning's runs are pretty depressing if you're specifically looking for an outbreak along and W of I-35. There's still plenty of time for it to move back toward earlier solutions, and it's not "over" by any means. In particular, if you're just talking about whether there will be a decent tornado event somewhere late next week, that's a pretty decent bet. I do understand we all have our personal perspectives and biases and they naturally get on each others' nerves this time of year, which is nothing new. This one just amuses me because I'm having flashbacks to some relatively similar situations in recent years where the naysayers generally were vindicated.

If you are looking at it specifically for chasing west of I35 only then yeah that could be ruined with this. However, I am looking at this from the meteorology side of things where there even with the bad model runs there is still a great potential of an outbreak in the southern Plains or MS valley. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you are looking at it specifically for chasing west of I35 only then yeah that could be ruined with this. However, I am looking at this from the meteorology side of things where there even with the bad model runs there is still a great potential of an outbreak in the southern Plains or MS valley. 


A lot of us are chasers and have made plans for this storm system. It may not be a big deal for those watching at home (and to be fair, I used to be one of those guys) but it is for the rest of us. So the model shifts today are significant and noteworthy and not ignorable.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, thewxmann said:


A lot of us are chasers and have made plans for this storm system. It may not be a big deal for those watching at home (and to be fair, I used to be one of those guys) but it is for the rest of us. So the model shifts today are significant and noteworthy and not ignorable.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
 

Good! The more road for the rest of us the better. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, thewxmann said:


A lot of us are chasers and have made plans for this storm system. It may not be a big deal for those watching at home (and to be fair, I used to be one of those guys) but it is for the rest of us. So the model shifts today are significant and noteworthy and not ignorable.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
 

I mean to be fair this is a weather forum not a chase forum. I do get your plight and I was out there a few weeks ago myself on a bust but I have to look at things from the meteorology side of things with this potential. In that case the potential is still really good just in different areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...