Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

I'm actually okay with the way the end of the line looks as far as cell spacing goes, still some definite potential for semi-discrete supercells later on... But that kink in the low-level hodograph is really demoralizing and if that doesn't fix the tornado threat will be significantly tempered.

Yeah, there are some little cells trying to go up on Goes-16, but literally only the lowest 2km of that profile are good. 

And like Quincy said, I doubt anything significant comes from that line in AR aside from a weak QLCS tornado. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 794
  • Created
  • Last Reply
9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Yeah, there are some little cells trying to go up on Goes-16, but literally only the lowest 2km of that profile are good. 

And like Quincy said, I doubt anything significant comes from that line in AR aside from a weak QLCS tornado. 

700mb winds will veer a bit with time. There is a band of convective cells going up west of SHV and another subtle band is showing up to the east. Those area the main areas to watch and will be the difference between a gusty squall line with a few embedded spinups and something more significant.

IMG_1402.thumb.JPG.4e7a992be6c8b88e2c51e28917934d3c.JPG

Predicting convection is not a perfect science. Remember the Alexandria tornado earlier this year? Most of the focus was on points west. Aside from that cell, most of the other convection that day was messy and/or linear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

either my computer is wonky or pivotal is off.  I took a quick glance at NAM 12Z for 03Z and 06Z and didn't see much happening north I-40/OKC area.

 

please tell me I have looked at the wrong runs!!  I swear I saw some potential late time storms for this run

As it currently sits:

Thursday night: slight chance of showers/thunderstorms

Friday: Partly sunny/cloudy

Friday Night: Almost definitely will get storms, as well as saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Analogs do not make an event, but the CIPS analog guidance based off of the 12Z GFS is showing a decent tornado signal for parts of North Texas for Saturday. I think the primary threat area may be a little east of analog guidance based on where the low level jet is expected to be at the time, but it's something to watch.

 

laDOms4.png

 

xPcUz5I.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z NAM... IF discrete convection occurred in this, it would be capable of all severe hazards including sig tors. But that's the thing... Most other models, 1. Do not favor an environment as volatile as this, and 2. favor more of a linear convective mode... NAM also shows much stronger upper-level winds in this area than other models do, it is also the long-range NAM so it should be taken skeptically, but still makes you wonder.

SE OK...2017042618_NAM_078_34.57,-95.02_severe_m

NW Arkansas...

2017042618_NAM_078_35.71,-93.97_severe_m

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Quincy said:

Tomorrow looks like a waste too with fairly strong odds that a squall line develops by midday/early afternoon and plows through the Arklatex to lower to mid-Mississippi Valley region. QLCS tornadoes certainly remain a possibility, but not much discrete activity is expected despite strong instability, >50kts deep layer shear and sharply backed low-level winds. (In some of the worst chase territory as well)

Should have left it at that. 

17 hours ago, Quincy said:

The setup reminds me a little (only distantly similar) to 11/17/15, where a squall line 10% tornado outlook busted horribly.

Overall, the tornado-driven moderate risk seems a bit conditional

Only "a bit conditional..." One of the biggest moderate risk busts I can recall in my young chasing career along with 4/29/14. 

The mid-levels really did this event in, between kinky wind profiles and warm sector capping.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

This season seems to have made fools of all of us at one point or another 

Isn't that the truth. Makes Friday even trickier for them to put category map together. Woke up to a 15 percent hatched today, then tonight not much happened outside of run of the mill severe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Isn't that the truth. Makes Friday even trickier for them to put category map together. Woke up to a 15 percent hatched today, then tonight not much happened outside of run of the mill severe.

I disagree. Today had obvious issues, wind profile + storm mode, Friday generally looks a lot better aside from the NAM. As long as we get the LLJ to kick up by ~00z we'll be fine given the impressive veering with height and strong instability, storms should also remain discrete.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...