David Reimer Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 The HRRR would be rather problematic for OUN to Newalla to Luther up I-44 to Tulsa. Not sure storms would be entirely surface based with a strong surface inversion, but the ingredients for giant hail are certainly in place. If a storm did become rooted to the surface, especially closer to I-40, the tornado risk would certainly need to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, David Reimer said: The HRRR would be rather problematic for OUN to Newalla to Luther up I-44 to Tulsa. Not sure storms would be entirely surface based with a strong surface inversion, but the ingredients for giant hail are certainly in place. If a storm did become rooted to the surface, especially closer to I-40, the tornado risk would certainly need to be monitored. More interested in the CAPE nose along the KS/OK border for this evening ~00z-03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Speaking of the HRRR. Did 15z not finish and 16z didn't make it very far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Speaking of the HRRR. Did 15z not finish and 16z didn't make it very far? Both are fully out on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Forecast soundings (HRRR) near and just east of OKC are interesting in the 01-04z time frame. The only issue is that convection may be slightly elevated with gradually increasing SBCINH, also factoring in that the HRRR has been inconsistent about timing of initiation. (Closer to 00z would be more favorable for a tornado threat, however I'd imagine capping will probably delay convection until near or after 02z) 16z HRRR simulated radar also has a bowy look to convection firing in the region. We'll see how it plays out. Any red flags aside, it's hard to ignore the CAPE/shear parameter space and large low level hodographs being progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Players on the floor for large hail and possibly a spin up of two. Eyes remain on tomorrow for more widespread severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 FWIW 12z euro brings warm front north of OKC for Friday.. Td in OKC of 68 at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, CGChaser said: FWIW 12z euro brings warm front north of OKC for Friday.. Td in OKC of 68 at 00z That is great news. Def seeing a trend north with better moisture. But for a tornado event to pan out we really need that SFC low to develop sooner and that jet to time a few hours sooner. North Texas near Wichita Falls looked good on 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: That is great news. Def seeing a trend north with better moisture. But for a tornado event to pan out we really need that SFC low to develop sooner and that jet to time a few hours sooner. North Texas near Wichita Falls looked good on 12z gfs Even w/ current modeled sfc low deepening, I would imagine a few tors w/ environment. However, for a more substantial event, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 As far as this evening goes (at least across most of OK), convection looks to be tied to strongly forced ascent along the surging cold front, so I'm not particularly excited there. Definitely some potential for smashed windshields in the Tulsa metro, though, and OKC as well if CI is early enough. For Friday, the Euro hedged back toward earlier solutions that would offer some respectable potential in the Red River Valley, perhaps up to I-40. I think the biggest issue would actually be CI, though. Looping through H5 and H3 images, the height rises throughout the day into the evening make me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Unsurprisingly, CIPS analogs are also keying in near the Red River for Friday. Overall tornado potential indicated isn't a slam-dunk though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 ECMWF trending more to earlier solutions, though timing/evolution is still off such that instability/shear can't be maximized like earlier runs. I'd say with recent trends the euro is close enough that we could see a more substantial event given the right trends, however forecast height rises would be very concerning for CI purposes. Corresponding with these changes in ECMWF are associated upticks in severe parameters into central OK. Areas invof RR and southern/central OK could be in for an active afternoon/eve if these trends continue. While height rises probably would be an issue, smaller vorticity maxima in the broader SW flow aloft would probably help.. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, brettjrob said: As far as this evening goes (at least across most of OK), convection looks to be tied to strongly forced ascent along the surging cold front, so I'm not particularly excited there. Definitely some potential for smashed windshields in the Tulsa metro, though, and OKC as well if CI is early enough. For Friday, the Euro hedged back toward earlier solutions that would offer some respectable potential in the Red River Valley, perhaps up to I-40. I think the biggest issue would actually be CI, though. Looping through H5 and H3 images, the height rises throughout the day into the evening make me cringe. Totally agree man. Not looking great for CI at least for now. Never seen a setup pan out well when height rises persisted close to the event. I don't like the look of the LLJ either esp across OK. On GFS the best looking LLJ was confined to north Texas. Def not a slam dunk tornado threat but if something fires before sunset and before CIN increases after dark it would likely be discrete and have ample cape and shear to work with. I remember on 4-14-12 the jet core waited till sunset to eject out and there was tornado madness in the panhandle. This setup is not like that day but the timing reminds me of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 IIRC, 4/14/12 also had subtle height rises, but subtle s/w's out ahead of the main trof initiated storms much earlier than we and most CAM's expected. The net result was that the initial supercells had trouble maintaining strong updrafts (sans one, the Salina EF4) until the main ascent arrived later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, brettjrob said: As far as this evening goes (at least across most of OK), convection looks to be tied to strongly forced ascent along the surging cold front, so I'm not particularly excited there. Definitely some potential for smashed windshields in the Tulsa metro, though, and OKC as well if CI is early enough. For Friday, the Euro hedged back toward earlier solutions that would offer some respectable potential in the Red River Valley, perhaps up to I-40. I think the biggest issue would actually be CI, though. Looping through H5 and H3 images, the height rises throughout the day into the evening make me cringe. I like the idea of a target near the Red River area for now. The height rises are a little concerning, but we'll have to worry about that once we get closer. The overall synoptic pattern still seems to be shifting. FWIW, the surface lapse rates are really great just north and west of the Red River area by around 18z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, thewxmann said: IIRC, 4/14/12 also had subtle height rises, but subtle s/w's out ahead of the main trof initiated storms much earlier than we and most CAM's expected. The net result was that the initial supercells had trouble maintaining strong updrafts (sans one, the Salina EF4) until the main ascent arrived later in the evening. Yep... but once the main wave started to have influence, several intense discrete supercells were across the warm sector. Still had discrete supercells as late as 11pm that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 I would definitely feel better if we had some s/w to work with. Height rises are a huge concern. Would only mean more capping and more forcing needed. But man if anything goes it will be explosive with models showing 3000-4000+ cape. The threat is def conditional but has the potential to be significant. How sad is it that the last legit large scale Plains outbreak was 4-14-12. Seems to be hard to get anything but localized events anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Saturday looks somewhat interesting on the ECMWF as well. Great instability and 0-6km bulk-shear and a raging 70 knot LLJ at 00z, but I'm worried there may be way too much crapvection in Texas with the way the 200mb jet looks right now. We'll see how things progress over tomorrow and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Saturday looks somewhat interesting on the ECMWF as well. Great instability and 0-6km bulk-shear and a raging 70 knot LLJ at 00z, but I'm worried there may be way too much crapvection in Texas with the way the 200mb jet looks right now. We'll see how things progress over tomorrow and Thursday. Yuck. So meridional. Def like the jet on Fri better but not sure it will time right just yet. Jet isn't too bad over eastern TX but as you said crapvection will probably be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Saturday looks somewhat interesting on the ECMWF as well. Great instability and 0-6km bulk-shear and a raging 70 knot LLJ at 00z, but I'm worried there may be way too much crapvection in Texas with the way the 200mb jet looks right now. We'll see how things progress over tomorrow and Thursday. [image removed for scrolling purposes] I have some concerns with the low level jet being displaced east of the best instability for Saturday. If we can get some better overlap, things could be pretty salty though pending ongoing convection. Considering my proximity, I'll probably be out that day regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Very meridional flow and strong forcing associated with strong height falls and jet structure would probably lead to rapid upscale growth on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Here is where we sit with the current Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Cell going up north of Oklahoma City, near Guthrie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Initiation has occured, let's see if we can t get some impressive hail reports this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Obviously won't amount to anything yet as conditions aren't exactly favorable yet for tornadoes, but CI occurred a solid two hours or so before CAMs indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Obviously won't amount to anything yet as conditions aren't exactly favorable yet for tornadoes, but CI occurred a solid two hours or so before CAMs indicated. A bit early up in north-central OK for sure. Cu field bubbling in the immediate NW sky from OKC, but clearly getting sheared out due to the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 North of Stillwater currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Quincy said: A bit early up in north-central OK for sure. Cu field bubbling in the immediate NW sky from OKC, but clearly getting sheared out due to the cap. Was wondering if something else would pop... as GOES-16 shows some other substantial CU south of where the current storm is that looks like it was about to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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