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Apr. 18-21 Severe Possibilities


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Starting the thread with tomorrow in case the marginal D2 risk including SW IA extends east and becomes more robust:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC already has a Slight risk for Wednesday for primarily KS/OK/NE/S IA, but it currently reaches as far east into W/NC IL as Peoria and LaSalle-Peru (more for a hail threat by that time):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Possibly at least a marginal risk for IN/OH on Thursday but SPC not ruling out the possibility:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The potential exists for a few episodes of severe weather east of
   the Rockies during the extended period; however,
   ensemble/deterministic guidance suggest considerable uncertainty
   remains regarding the location/timing of any one episode, precluding
   the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   For D4/Thursday, a sheared shortwave trough will advance across the
   Great Lakes, with an attendant surface front pushing east/southeast
   across Indiana and Ohio. While enhanced westerly flow aloft and some
   boundary layer moistening may yield a few severe storms, the threat
   appears too marginal for a probabilistic area at this time.  [ . . . ]

 

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

NAM12/4km slowing this up even more, looking more like an Iowa event for Wednesday and a potential of severe weather here on Thursday, GFS also slowed up but not quite that slow yet.

Thursday has sparked my interest, provided things can slown down by about 6 hours. 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Wednesday's threat is becoming less interesting as time goes on.

Might not even be chase worthy in the end.

Locally probably not. However further west into Iowa could get interesting closer to upper jet and forcing. Des Moines had a good write up on the potential

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Not saying it will pan out but the GFS has been more bullish with development closer to the warm front in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening.  



00z 12km NAM does have a discrete signal from Kankakee into north central IN tomorrow 21-00z. It'll definitely be a day to monitor the GOES-16 data closely. Presumably we'll be in a mesoscale sector tomorrow, so we'll be able to watch for bubbling cu along the warm front.

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45 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


00z 12km NAM does have a discrete signal from Kankakee into north central IN tomorrow 21-00z. It'll definitely be a day to monitor the GOES-16 data closely. Presumably we'll be in a mesoscale sector tomorrow, so we'll be able to watch for bubbling cu along the warm front.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

 

Low level flow is fairly anemic that far east, but you never know if something manages to ride near the boundary.

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I am surprised they went with Enhanced, not because of the potential which I think is actually good, but because they usually don't go this bold for this region so quickly. Usually it is a wait and see kind of thing. As for tomorrow though, all CAMs have the warm front stalling in the metro Detroit area. If that were to occur, there would be a pretty decent albeit conditional tornado threat for southeast Michigan. There is decent to good instability that would be feeding into the region ahead of the cold front and timing right now looks to be about as good as you can get this time of year 19-23z. I will say I am actually pretty bold on this potential tomorrow if the CAMs have any idea, we should have a pretty decent event for SEMI and NE IN/NW OH.

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3 hours ago, Stebo said:

I am surprised they went with Enhanced, not because of the potential which I think is actually good, but because they usually don't go this bold for this region so quickly. Usually it is a wait and see kind of thing. As for tomorrow though, all CAMs have the warm front stalling in the metro Detroit area. If that were to occur, there would be a pretty decent albeit conditional tornado threat for southeast Michigan. There is decent to good instability that would be feeding into the region ahead of the cold front and timing right now looks to be about as good as you can get this time of year 19-23z. I will say I am actually pretty bold on this potential tomorrow if the CAMs have any idea, we should have a pretty decent event for SEMI and NE IN/NW OH.

Today has strong potential.

But of course, IMO, skipper's rule still applies. It's not the ideal setup (I.E. lapse rates worsening with time), but there's definitely a lot going for it (strong forcing, good timing, strengthening low, etc.).

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