Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 303
  • Created
  • Last Reply

GFS has a good dump of snow roughly down to Wolf Creek in Colorado. Nice to see since we're still in September. This rain event - if it verifies - over the next week would be useful for cooling off October from the torch last year. We're already +25% on precipitation this year on 2016 to date, pending any more by September 30th.

I was playing around with La Nina temperatures in my area. One of the better predictors believe it or not is the number of days at 87F or more from Apr/May to Sept/Oct. Colder La Nina winters tend to follow the years with a lot of hot days, hotter La Ninas follow the years with relatively few.

We've had 96 this year, up from 83 last year. Of the 18 La Ninas with 89 or fewer days at 87F or hotter, only one is cold (<=47.5F DJF), 11 are hot (>=51.5F) in the winter. Of the 9 La Ninas with over 89 days at 87F or hotter, only one is hot, but three are cold. It's a ~61% v. ~11% difference for the hot winters, P value of ~0.01 in terms of safely rejecting that it makes no difference on DJF highs. I'm not expecting a cold winter here, but "cold for a La Nina" seems somewhat likely, La Ninas are ~50.7F here. Blend of 87F days, the cooler AMO, and solar activity implies about 49F for this winter, down from 52F last winter.

Every month from Oct-May averages a lower mean high after a lot of 87F days here in La Ninas, even though the mean of the years with a lot of 87F days is 1981, while the mean of the years with fewer 87F day is 1976, so I think a cooler period overall is relatively certain, even if it still ends up above average.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice and cold down here (for Sept), been hovering at ~50F with the state getting a good soaking rain event. Mountains got snow, including those east of the city. We're at 0.67" today as of a little after 9 pm and still raining. NAM has another inch or more for the city by the end of September. I had 1.25" for ABQ (+20%) for Sept so not surprised in my Summer outlook (from May) - am a bit miffed it took this long, we don't usually get rain events this big in the Fall, they tend to happen earlier in Sept if they do happen, when the E Pac Hurricane Season peaks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Baseball note: the Colorado Rockies may be a bit closer to clinching a wild card spot. In the last several weeks, the Brewers and Cardinals have been close to the Rockies wild card position.  I don't think the Rockies will get the win if they face Arizona in the wild card game. They have been a relatively average baseball team since the All-Star Break. Charlie Blackmon broke 100 RBIs as a leadoff hitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 We have had another wet morning here.  This time, the rain may have started at 1AM or 2AM.

Colorado, New Mexico, and the Plains have picked up some pretty reasonable rainfall amounts. Some areas of Texas have had over 6" in the last week. 3-4" of rain is well above normal, as many areas may average 1"-2.5" for the month of September. Note: the white area west of the Continental Divide is missing data.

mvKV8X2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Chinook said:

Baseball note: the Colorado Rockies may be a bit closer to clinching a wild card spot. In the last several weeks, the Brewers and Cardinals have been close to the Rockies wild card position.  I don't think the Rockies will get the win if they face Arizona in the wild card game. They have been a relatively average baseball team since the All-Star Break. Charlie Blackmon broke 100 RBIs as a leadoff hitter.

I don't know what it is about Arizona, but they really seem to have the Rockies' number on a regular basis. Seems like every time the Rockies play them, hitting disappears. It was like Red Sox- Tampa Bay when I lived in MA.  Watching a Rockies- Diamondbacks game is a bit like hitting myself in the head with a hammer, again. Blackmon is one great bright spot though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Warm season totals

MAY 2017: water equivalent: 4.76"
JUNE 2017: 0.19"
JULY 2017: 1.32"
AUGUST: 2.14"
SEPTEMBER: 2.19", as of Sep 28
Total: 10.6"
Normal MAY-SEPT precip is 9.22". The percentage of normal is 115%.
Temperatures
-----------
MAY -1.2
JUNE +2.4
JULY +2.0
AUGUST -1.5
SEPTEMBER +1.7, as of Sep 27
average = +0.7 F

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Albuquerque issuing Flash Flood Watches in September?

Quote

* Deep moisture will persist east of the continental divide through
  Saturday as embedded disturbances track northeastward over the
  area. Additional rain amounts will generally vary around 0.25 to
  1.25 inches, with locally higher amounts. In many locations the
  ground is already saturated from 2 days of moderate to heavy
  rainfall,

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

NWS Albuquerque issuing Flash Flood Watches in September?

 

It's been pretty wet here, and the models have good rains through Saturday now. I'm annoyed with them at the moment - they screwed up the rain total for yesterday. We had a big thunderstorm complex just after midnight but it was counted for 9/28. I pointed it out but they didn't fix it. 

We've had 1.5-2.0 inches since 9/27 in most of the metro, and so another big round of rain probably will do some flooding. Even the CFS seems to be catching on that it isn't going to be hot/dry out here in October, given the rains coming next week and the saturated ground. I had a wet monsoon in my Summer outlook (from May) which ended up verifying, I think we're around 4.50" in the city now, pending more tonight or Saturday. 1931-2016 mean is 4.31" and I had 5.75". The cold season months here are pretty sensitive to big rain/snow events, so we should be in for a pretty nice October - no torch like last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All this talk about warm temperatures in the Lakes/Ohio Valley subforum, and it could snow in mid-Wyoming on the same day. Models agree that the snow should be in many parts of Wyoming next week.

Note: my old home town of Toledo had 6 straight days of 90's this week. That means that 6 out of 11 of Toledo's 90 degree days for the year were in the past week and a half.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CFS has amplified in a pretty massive way for October over the last few days, including showing most of the Midwest in a torch pattern, with cool / near normal temps in our area. Trending toward much lower heights in the West.

October was very hot here in 2016 - had it 6F cooler for this year in my Fall Outlook (highs). Canadian will be out tomorrow, should have a good idea. It did OK for Sept - had the SE cool with the West warm, but didn't figure out there would be a big time cold snap at the end of the month in the interior / mountainous West.

F0OvykZ.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fort Collins hit with fog, 2:00AM-9:30AM. Observations shown here are from 5:00 AM - 9:34AM

KFNL 301534Z AUTO 15003KT 3/4SM BR OVC001 09/08 A3012 RMK AO2
KFNL 301456Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM FG OVC001 08/08 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP176 60000 T00780078 53002
KFNL 301356Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM FG OVC001 07/07 A3011 RMK AO2 RAE11 SLP176 P0000 T00720067
KFNL 301256Z AUTO 31004KT M1/4SM -RA FG OVC001 07/07 A3011 RMK AO2 RAB53 SLP176 P0000 T00720067
KFNL 301156Z AUTO 01003KT 1/4SM FG OVC001 07/07 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP172 T00720072 10089 20061 55004
KFNL 301056Z AUTO 06005KT 1/4SM FG BKN001 07/07 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP169 T00720067
KFNL 301051Z AUTO 06005KT 1/4SM FG VV002 07/07 A3010 RMK AO2
KFNL 301049Z AUTO 06005KT 3/4SM BR VV002 07/06 A3010 RMK AO2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

There is some snow at Craig and Hayden Colorado, and some heavy(?) snow above 10000 ft. It is 72 degrees near in Denver. Today, the first winter storm warning for central Rockies was posted by NWS Boulder.

 

I hiked up to Ouzel Lake in the Wild Basin part of RMNP today.  Heavy snow with thunder rolled in around 2pm.  I was ready for the snow, in fact that is why I went.  But the lightning sent me back down :) 

Edit:  Just saw that I am under a WWA for up to 8".  That was a pleasant surprise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mercurial said:

This winter is starting to get a lot of hype up here.  We'll see how it goes.  Mountains east of me are expecting 1-2 feet tomorrow through Tuesday, with up to 1 foot in the prairies.  

I like roughly the SW half of Montana as 1-3F below normal highs for the winter, but still tinkering with it. Severe drought in NE Montana makes me hesitant to have that area pretty cold (for highs, lows are a different story!). A lot of the years I like are pretty cold in NV/UT - sort of in the area where the recent late September cold snap was.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have to say it was not an unusual pattern for the Rockies this season in maybe 1/3 of their games. Too bad it had to be THIS game.

And yeah, let's wait another couple weeks for the snow, shall we? Though if the Rockies had won, I'd be rooting for a snowstorm at Coors... home field advantage??

SE low level wind would favor Chinook and ValpoVike, not me. But that's OK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Have to say it was not an unusual pattern for the Rockies this season in maybe 1/3 of their games. Too bad it had to be THIS game.

And yeah, let's wait another couple weeks for the snow, shall we? Though if the Rockies had won, I'd be rooting for a snowstorm at Coors... home field advantage??

SE low level wind would favor Chinook and ValpoVike, not me. But that's OK.

Yeah, a snowstorm would really help the Rockies' slugging percentage move towards .000. Oh well. I think Arizona should be a good team to watch and root for. I hope J.D. Martinez hits a home run vs. the Dodgers. J.D. started hitting well when he joined the Tigers, and started hitting even better when he joined Arizona.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With CPC updating both ERSST V.4 and ERSST V.5 for Nino 3.4, I keep wondering how the winter will end up being classified? The differences are pretty stark now - by V.5 we're Cold Neutral in JAS, -0.1C, since it has a colder 30-year base period. But in V.4 we're -0.5C, with the warmer 30-year base period.

I keep wondering if they'll cave to anomalies by V.5 colder, since everyone was using the V.4 means for projections? I think this is part of why you have such a large spread in the models for the winter, some probably automatically use the newest data sets and others don't.

Also:

Houston over Boston in 5

Cleveland over NYY in 4

Cubs over Nationals in 4

Arizona over LA in 5

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...