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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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My high tomorrow is supposed to be 39F...which is ~36F below average for the date.

Seems like the city has a six hour window for snow from roughly 4 am to 10 am, if we can some wet bulb magic. I'm at 40F with a 34F dew point, with the dew point starting to crater ahead of the next band of precip.

One of the forecasters at NWS ABQ wrote on twitter that the upper air sounding was at record cold for the date in Albuquerque. This is all consistent with solar radiation interfering with the upper atmosphere, and then a developing El Nino pushing the interference to the SW.

Since 1892, the city has had two days that were <=40F from Apr 15 - Oct 15 - so it'd be a pretty monumental achievement, arguably much more impressive than the snows.

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19 minutes ago, Chinook said:

looks like it has been about 2 to 10" in the Denver area under 7000ft. Huge range there. Pueblo area was very snowy-- Pueblo is usually too far south for significant snow.

t16VN8i.jpg

Well, seems like we always get these elevation based snowstorms late in the season.

 

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Colorado is likely to be wet (and slightly snowy) in the next couple of weeks, according to GFS/GEFS, and maybe even wet on week 3 if you look at the CFS weekly chart. The Fort Collins area has been taken out of D1 drought, on yesterday's US Drought Monitor.  We were not above 70 degrees between 4/19 and 5/4, so a lot of this moisture has had some time to sink into the soil with lower evaporation. We had 0.14" of rain Tuesday-Wednesday.

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.Central/southern High Plains and Front Range... The aforementioned upslope flow will serve to advect a relatively moist air mass (45-50 degrees F surface dewpoints) into northeast CO during the afternoon. Strong surface heating over the High Plains from CO south into southeastern NM/Far West TX will contribute to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon (1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE). Moderate mid- to high-level southerly flow on the periphery of the central U.S. ridge atop southeasterly and easterly low-level flow will result in effective shear 25-40 kt---sufficient for organized storms. Orographic forcing for ascent and perhaps a weak mid-level impulse will combine with weakening CINH during the day to result in isolated to scattered storms by late afternoon/early evening. Organized multicells capable of a wind/hail threat are possible near the lee trough/dryline and several supercells are possible early in the convective lifecycle where stronger deep-layer shear is forecast (i.e., a stronger easterly component to low-level flow). A spatially confined tornado risk may develop over northeast CO and perhaps preferentially favor near the Palmer Divide or near the Front Range. Forecast soundings show very steep lapse rate profiles supportive of severe gust potential. The wind risk is forecast to increase during the transition to more-outflow-dominant convective structures with this risk decreasing during the evening.

Interesting setup for the front range.    Good place to chance too, if you don't get a tornado you'll probably see accumulating hail.

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This is the first slight risk for a large part of eastern Colorado. It is at a typical time of the year for the first slight risk. Yesterday, Denver had a gust of 60mph from a thunderstorm. Some other areas had about 45mph. I had some windy conditions in Fort Collins, 35 kt at KFNL, but I never heard thunder.

Today, CAPE values around 2000 J/kg + mean that all modes of severe weather are possible in eastern Colorado. Shear values are highly dependent on which model you look at. So that is rather confusing.

The HRRR runs say that this area will be very wet tonight. The model doesn't have intense storm cores or updraft helicity.

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