Snowstorms Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: While we're on the tropical subject, here is something interesting that was discovered a few years ago. I'm not sure if it was already posted but I don't remember seeing it before. It is an early season hurricane from May 1863 that slipped under the radar, likely due to the Civil War. It was named Amanda because of a ship that was run aground, and made landfall in Florida as a category 2 with 105 mph winds and then the remnants moved into the Midwest. Not easy to find a lot of weather data from back then so who knows what kind of rain amounts it produced. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00171.1 Looking back through Toronto's weather history, this post tropical storm dropped around 1.18" of rain in the city. Not a whole lot but I'm sure it would have been a nice event. With the way Irma is being modeled as of right now, which is bound to change indefinitely, the closet comparison is probably Hazel or Frances in my opinion. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1881&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=5&Day=31&Year=1863 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Looking back through Toronto's weather history, this post tropical storm dropped around 1.18" of rain in the city. Not a whole lot but I'm sure it would have been a nice event. With the way Irma is being modeled as of right now, which is bound to change indefinitely, the closet comparison is probably Hazel or Frances in my opinion. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1881&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=5&Day=31&Year=1863 Long way out but I do think there's potential for some pretty high winds inland with Irma, given the potential landfall intensity and modeled forward speed after landfall. Where that is remains to be seen of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Long way out but I do think there's potential for some pretty high winds inland with Irma, given the potential landfall intensity and modeled forward speed after landfall. Its definitely possible. We will have to monitor this as the long weekend progresses but its worth watching. The latest GFS takes it right into Northern Ontario, dropping over 2" of rain especially for those in the Eastern areas of the sub-forum. I believe many EPS members had max sustained winds of over 180+ miles per hour, which is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Might be a 9/11 hurricane too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 No one posted the CFSv2 from yesterday (8/31), but it is showing a strong below normal precip signal for September for most of the subforum. I'm sure that there is no way to work a hurricane remnant into the algorithm. That wild card could sure throw a wrench into that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 lol Though I am totally rooting for an evolution that drills Irma northwestward. Need to change things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Note, turn down the volume on this one but, meanwhile in Canada: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: lol Though I am totally rooting for an evolution that drills Irma northwestward. Need to change things up. It's gonna go where it wants to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Had to turn on the heat in this car this morning. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 40 minutes ago, Powerball said: Had to turn on the heat in this car this morning. Just awful. Yeah it was a bit cool this morning in the house. Got down to 65 inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Interesting to look at the EPS regarding Irma... a cluster of about 20% of the members bring the remnant center northwest into IL/IN/KY/OH, which is not overwhelming but non-negligible considering the large spread. But of those, a majority still have a sub 1000 mb low as it gets into the area, and well under in some cases. The GFS/GEFS doing it is one thing (the op GFS pressure in particular at landfall is suspect that far north) but the Euro products also. I have to say it would be pretty uncommon to get a storm barreling northwest to these latitudes like that... Hugo did something like that but even it began to turn more N/NNE in Ohio. They tend to be recurving. There are some other examples like Sandy but that setup was just so crazy. Anyway, could easily see a farther east outcome but there's not really much else to track right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I guess it just depends on how much of a running start she can get. lol You're right about not much to track. I always root for hurricane remnants in September/early October, otherwise it's usually hibernation time for weather hobbyists in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I guess it just depends on how much of a running start she can get. lol You're right about not much to track. I always root for hurricane remnants in September/early October, otherwise it's usually hibernation time for weather hobbyists in the Midwest. I guess I can watch the lake effect rain setup later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Somebody fix the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Somebody fix the GFS Lol not only that but it tracks it too far north making landfall near DC. I can't see that happening with such a strong block to the north and a rather pathetic atlantic ridge... unless the GFS loses the idea of a block to the north later on (which hopefully it does as we should be torching during that timeframe anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm not sure how well this would mix down but this is a fairly fun look for a good chunk of the area by tropical remnant standards. Now just gotta hold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'm not sure how well this would mix down but this is a fairly fun look for a good chunk of the area by tropical remnant standards. Now just gotta hold lol Wouldn't heavy rain accompanying it make it mix down easier? Those winds were close to surface winds for the infamous 'dry hurricane' AKA Ike and that was a small disaster here without a drop of rain. I'm not a tropical system follower by any means, but this one has had my interest for a few days. Not so much about effects here, (because that's a very long shot), but because my folks live in Sunset Beach, NC and last nights gfs and euro runs both show a devastating track for that area. Thankfully it's still a week out in forecast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Wouldn't heavy rain accompanying it make it mix down easier? Those winds were close to surface winds for the infamous 'dry hurricane' AKA Ike and that was a small disaster here without a drop of rain. I'm not a tropical system follower by any means, but this one has had my interest for a few days. Not so much about effects here, (because that's a very long shot), but because my folks live in Sunset Beach, NC and last nights gfs and euro runs both show a devastating track for that area. Thankfully it's still a week out in forecast time. Depends. Too much rain could stabilize the low levels enough to prevent good mixing. It's not like we are right by the ocean with a supply of warm winds off the water. An area to watch would be downwind of the lakes as mixing may be better. If you recall what happened during Sandy, the Cleveland area got hammered with high winds as they had enhanced mixing being so close to lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Not a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, kerbs said: Could be too low by 50 mb and it would still be down in the low 900s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Could be too low by 50 mb and it would still be down in the low 900s. That map looks like "Super Typhoon" Irma. My childhood buddy had an Aunt Irma. Uncommon name at least these days. May need to be retired! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty bad luck that I happen to have relatives in Houston metro (which fortunately their Harvey flooding situation didn't turn out too badly) and friends in Naples. The Naples people live just a few blocks from the Gulf, so they will get almost the full force of the winds in addition to surge concerns. I'm afraid it's not going to end well. They did evacuate but there's probably a pretty good chance their house will be uninhabitable after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pretty bad luck that I happen to have relatives in Houston metro (which fortunately their Harvey flooding situation didn't turn out too badly) and friends in Naples. The Naples people live just a few blocks from the Gulf, so they will get almost the full force of the winds in addition to surge concerns. I'm afraid it's not going to end well. They did evacuate but there's probably a pretty good chance their house will be uninhabitable after this. Ahh, sorry to hear that. Glad they evacuated though. That's most important. Hopefully the center can stay far enough offshore to keep the eastern eye wall from brushing the coast in that area. They'd still get it good, but hopefully the winds wouldn't get too crazy. Surge looks to be a problem either way though if they're low enough. Tough situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 We are in the midst of one of the driest, most boring stretches of warm-season weather I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 TWC has done a spectacular job with their hurricane coverage this year with Harvey and Irma. Extremely impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Such an absurd radar image, I don't think I have ever seen so many tornadic circulations on one radar before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 33 minutes ago, Stebo said: Such an absurd radar image, I don't think I have ever seen so many tornadic circulations on one radar before. Wow. That almost seems like it has to be fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wow. That almost seems like it has to be fake. I know it is incredible to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Any of you Michigan peeps want to go to the Falcons/Lions game on the 24th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.