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Ginx snewx

Model Mehham

232 posts in this topic

This ordeal from Sunday through next Tuesday this up-coming week is a bit unusual even for our standards here upon the SNE penisula.

At times over the springs of lore, we muse how the atmosphere seemingly succeeds in a break-down of physical laws of nature, inventing forces to least excuse imaginable keep conditions face-smacking deliberately AT warm weather enthusiasts.  It's really pretty remarkable what the consensus of guidance is pulling off to reach that goal, yet again. 

Take the Euro operational ... it has a smooth bulging ridge with almost no visible confluence over Ontario flexing through the period; yet, some how finds the physical momentum to cut a front so far SW underneath the ridge rim that it's actually cutting bodily under the ridge's core itself (let alone the rim as is more typical)...all the way to the Del Marva, where heights may be 590 dm at max.  That's aggressive even for our standards..  

I think it's an exhausting momentum variation though..  The D4 has a pretty impressive anticyclonic wave break look to the flow over more western Ontario/S of James Bay, prior to the ridge's amplitude, and that sends "enough" denser air/high pressure to take advantage of flat region between the App. cordillera and the open cold ocean.  Once you dump a dense air mass into that region it will move SW under it's own synoptic scaled weight regardless of the 'appearance' of the steering field aloft.  

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On 4/19/2017 at 2:46 PM, dendrite said:

So will I. But 18C would do it. I think the GFS is getting 15-16C up here now. Still lalaland, but odds are increasing for a hot couple of days next weekend with that trough carving into the west. Plenty of time for our Labrador current to muck it up. 

looks like Friday and Saturday are the warm days but those 18 C 850 temps were cut almost in half for you

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

looks like Friday and Saturday are the warm days but those 18 C 850 temps were cut almost in half for you

Yeah...muted heat up here, but Saturday could be really hot down there. Looks like 12-13C up here on the GFS. That'll still be warm.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...muted heat up here, but Saturday could be really hot down there. Looks like 12-13C up here on the GFS. That'll still be warm.

yea couple days near 80, pretty meh, don't understand why anyone would do anything but open the windows on the house and let the beautiful smells of spring blooms through the house. Living in an AC bubble must be god awful. AC is good in HHH days but a couple of days with dews in the low 60s and 50s what are people thinking? Some oddballs might hide in the AC but a window fan is perfect

ecmwf_dew2m_neng_12.png

ecmwf_dew2m_neng_16.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_12.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_16.png

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

yea couple days near 80, pretty meh, don't understand why anyone would do anything but open the windows on the house and let the beautiful smells of spring blooms through the house. Living in an AC bubble must be god awful. AC is good in HHH days but a couple of days with dews in the low 60s and 50s what are people thinking? Some oddballs might hide in the AC but a window fan is perfect

ecmwf_t2m_neng_16.png

Look how skillfully it depicts me not having the warmth. :cry: 

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52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd take those numbers up. Wouldn't shock me if some torch spot pulled 87-90F.

Huge MOS failure is your call? love those dews though

KBDL   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/26/2017  1200 UTC                      
 DT /APR  26/APR  27                /APR  28                /APR  29 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    53          72          58          79    56 
 TMP  61 64 61 58 56 54 57 63 68 71 66 62 60 59 62 67 75 78 70 59 62 
 DPT  54 54 54 53 53 51 53 53 54 55 56 55 55 54 55 53 51 48 49 52 55 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV BK FW FW BK OV 
 WDR  02 03 02 36 36 01 02 08 17 18 17 17 16 17 17 27 27 26 23 19 19 
 WSP  07 06 04 03 03 01 02 01 05 07 07 06 05 07 05 05 10 11 07 05 07 
 P06        18    32    26    14     5    23    66    14     2  0 12 
 P12                    48          29          72          16    14 
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     2     0     0  0  0 
 Q12                     1           0           2           0     0 
 T06      0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  1/ 0 21/ 2  3/ 2  2/11  7/ 5 
 T12            0/ 0        0/ 0        1/ 1       26/ 6     3/15    
 POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  1 
 POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
 SNW                     0                       0                 0 
 CIG   3  3  3  3  2  2  2  4  5  6  5  3  2  2  3  5  8  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  6  5  7  7  7  7  6  5  5  5  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N BR BR  N  N  N  N BR BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N 
                                                                     

 KIJD   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/26/2017  1200 UTC                      
 DT /APR  26/APR  27                /APR  28                /APR  29 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    53          71          56          77    54 
 TMP  64 63 61 58 55 54 56 64 68 69 65 60 58 57 59 65 73 76 69 56 60 
 DPT  56 56 53 53 53 52 53 54 56 57 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 52 51 51 53 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL CL BK 
 WDR  04 05 06 04 04 03 00 36 22 18 16 15 18 14 15 25 27 25 23 20 18 
 WSP  07 04 02 02 01 01 00 01 04 05 04 04 06 02 03 04 08 09 06 01 03 
 P06        23    34    27    19     5    19    64    20     3  0 11 
 P12                    55          31          71          25    11 
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     2     0     0  0  0 
 Q12                     1           0           2           0     0 
 T06      0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0 20/ 2 13/ 2  3/11  4/ 5 
 T12            0/ 0        0/ 0        0/ 1       36/ 6     5/15    
 POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  1 
 POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
 SNW                     0                       0                 0 
 CIG   3  3  3  3  2  2  2  4  5  6  4  2  2  2  2  4  8  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   5  5  5  5  5  6  5  7  7  7  7  7  5  5  5  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV  BR BR BR BR BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N 

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MEX has 83F at BDL Saturday...not sure an 87-88F would be a huge MOS failure.

Based on the latest Euro with clouds and even showers around I'll take the under on Mex

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still looks odd on the 12z's across the board with so much SW penetration/stalling of surface boundary with that much height rise over top. 

That's configuration, is frustrating anyway but here the runs are really blithely ignoring their own depictions of ridge ballooning ... almost entirely even as early as D3.5 by laying that boundary down as far south as WV with heights rising the whole way....

It may not, but I feel there's room to correct those fronts N with the exception of the New England coastal plain - there I'd have less issue with perhaps a shallower version of that cold - note the Euro has +14 C at BVY Mass with -2 C at PWM on the lower Maine Coast.  That's seems a bit extreme for this late in the year - not impossible, but a tamer BD air mass seems in order....

We'll see - 

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I've lamented 2005 in the past but ... it can be worse guys - 

as bad as the last 48 hours has been, now imagine this precise condition characterizing three straight weeks unrelenting.  That was 2005 roughly May 10 to June 2nd.  The whole way.  actually today is mid 50s and that would be an improvement. 

Whole different universe Friday afternoon.  actually tomorrow may not be too bad... if that gyre gets abeam of our latitude, which most guidance suggests it finally will, the wind backing around that little amount combined with high hot sun this time of your could create some skylights. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...muted heat up here, but Saturday could be really hot down there. Looks like 12-13C up here on the GFS. That'll still be warm.

Yeah, if we can get some sun.  About the only time before Sunday that GFS has cloud cover much under 90% is during the wee hours Saturday morning.  (Especially true where I'll be tomorrow thru Saturday noon, NW of Moosehead Lake.)

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the ensembles are correct, gonna be tough to get a Mayorch.

Nice NAO now WTF

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

-NAO has very little correlation to temps in Mayorch. It promotes NW flow which will be warm dry pattern and cool nights first week 

It can also promote cooler and wet weather. It depends how the trough sets up. Regardless, that certainly is not a torch look. Seasons being seasons.

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

-NAO has very little correlation to temps in Mayorch. It promotes NW flow which will be warm dry pattern and cool nights first week 

Except it doesnt do anything but lock in a trough in the East, good luck with your nothing but summer temps you made a couple of weeks ago

 Glad I didn't install

KIJD_2017042612_dx_240.png

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