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Model Mehham


Ginx snewx
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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, for warm weather enthusiasts that D 8 through 10 evolution of the operational Euro from 00z last night is superb eye-candy. 

Hate to say ...but again, as I mentioned yesterday (and it persists) the signal is there for a warming trend as we close out the month.

Obviously these individual runs of x-y-z model for a-b-c specifics beyond D5 or 6 should strain believability .. to put it nicely..  Having said that, every member of the GEFS and the blend therefrom are/is flagging a -PNAP configuration to the flow ... taking hold post the 27th or so.  It'll be interesting to see if that evolves for something we haven't seen since... gosh, I wanna say 2009? and that's bona fide early season big heat.  ... 

The 28th that year set or tied for all time warmest in April for some locations.  Unfortunately, that cameo was almost all there was for summer heat here.  We had 2 days with 80+ in April, one in May, then then just one more (7/29) until August 14-19 brought 6 straight (and ended the 80+ for the year.)  During that span, we had a run of 56 days in which we had rain on 49.  Met summer brought 23.8" precip that year, 4.7" more than any other JJA.  No thanks!


it's crazy what even green up can do to temps.  Maximize the H85 temps before that.  

Bare-limbed hardwoods plus dry west winds is the recipe for heat in mid-late spring, especially in places where west-to-NW winds have some downsloping.  Caribou managed to tie their hottest ever (96) on 5/22/77 with those factors in play, less than a month after their continuous snow cover ended.  April was cold and May about average going into the 3 days with 96/95/94, and the leaves were less than halfway opened until that trifecta hit the throttle.  (The dry westerlies can even work with full foliage.  NNE's greatest heatwave, in July 1911 - all 3 states established their hottest ever that month - featured minima in the low-mid 60s after 100+ afternoons, evidence of pretty low dews.)

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42 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Really? You need a pool guy for this?

pool.jpeg

Lol.   24' above ground.    This is the first spring we have had it and I will have the pros reassemble the filter system and chlorinator this year.   Going forward I plan on doing it myself

We used to use collapsible pools when the kids were younger, but those were a pita.  

Next project is to build a deck for the pool

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lol.   24' above ground.    This is the first spring we have had it and I will have the pros reassemble the filter system and chlorinator this year.   Going forward I plan on doing it myself

We used to use collapsible pools when the kids were younger, but those were a pita.  

Next project is to build a deck for the pool

Looking pretty buff in that pic, Dave ;)

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a hot look.We pray for backdoors.

yeah... i'm gonna go ahead and take the under on the D10 Euro 101 F for Logon look ... 

That's pushing climate boundaries as an understatement.  

The D9 20 C's at 850 mb poised to move in ..then, growing in areal coverage and also warming to 21 or 22 C is probably some sort of record that's never been achieved at that altitude, latitude, and date.  At least, ...I've never heard of that sort of temperature layout at that altitude on April 30 over PA and SNE...  

The other thing, this is now the third day I have seen this -PNAP warm look on D9-10... which means, why isn't on D6-8 now?   Answer, because it's not getting into shorter ranges - which makes me wonder. 

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holy crap... that's like really rare guys.  the GEFs mean really spares (or harms...depending on one's point of view) the northeast by NOT having a period of northwest flow at mid levels prior to the ridge apex in space and time having it's fullest affect on the region.  

that's code for no typical front side bd event to retard the heat down to half or less residence.  it actaully goes from WSW to SW to W to WSW during about a four day stint in that 00z blend/evolution, which is means it just sort of gets ridiculous and stays that way. 

still, ... we are protected by D8+ ...and I think also the fact that it seems to be having trouble getting closer in time ...could all just be part of the illusion 

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

holy crap... that's like really rare guys.  the GEFs mean really spares (or harms...depending on one's point of view) the northeast by NOT having a period of northwest flow at mid levels prior to the ridge apex in space and time having it's fullest affect on the region.  

that's code for no typical front side bd event to retard the heat down to half or less residence.  it actaully goes from WSW to SW to W to WSW during about a four day stint in that 00z blend/evolution, which is means it just sort of gets ridiculous and stays that way. 

still, ... we are protected by D8+ ...and I think also the fact that it seems to be having trouble getting closer in time ...could all just be part of the illusion 

1976 and 2002, but 2 weeks later so 3-4F hotter?  (Easter Sunday 1976 was mid-90s NYC to BOS as we headed from NNJ toward Maine, and we thought we were going to fry the engine on our Beetle - air-cooling isn't that great in that kind of heat.  What a relief to reach northern Maine with temp 60 and still some snow piles.)


Why useless? Beach or open pools 

That's fine if swimming in 50F water is your thing.  (And up here, Long Lake in Belgrade still has ice in its north cove.)  Big early heat usually includes stiff breezes and low humidity, accompanied by brush fires.

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18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

1976 and 2002, but 2 weeks later so 3-4F hotter?  (Easter Sunday 1976 was mid-90s NYC to BOS as we headed from NNJ toward Maine, and we thought we were going to fry the engine on our Beetle - air-cooling isn't that great in that kind of heat.  What a relief to reach northern Maine with temp 60 and still some snow piles.)


Why useless? Beach or open pools 

That's fine if swimming in 50F water is your thing.  (And up here, Long Lake in Belgrade still has ice in its north cove.)  Big early heat usually includes stiff breezes and low humidity, accompanied by brush fires.

You're still buried in snow

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

holy crap... that's like really rare guys.  the GEFs mean really spares (or harms...depending on one's point of view) the northeast by NOT having a period of northwest flow at mid levels prior to the ridge apex in space and time having it's fullest affect on the region.  

that's code for no typical front side bd event to retard the heat down to half or less residence.  it actaully goes from WSW to SW to W to WSW during about a four day stint in that 00z blend/evolution, which is means it just sort of gets ridiculous and stays that way. 

still, ... we are protected by D8+ ...and I think also the fact that it seems to be having trouble getting closer in time ...could all just be part of the illusion 

I think there is a shot of some good warmth after that cutoff lifts north of us, later next week. Would open the door up for warmth and higher humidity (relatively speaking) until possible high pressure builds in and backdoors us.

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