Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 Epic stretch of mid summer weather coming up , September like warm days low dews cool nights 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Epic stretch of mid summer weather coming up , September like warm days low dews cool nights Just in time for vacay on the island. So stoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Both unusual for the pattern, but... it's longevity is also extending beyond normal residence for in situ circulation types. It's been going on since April really ...with a couple few periods here in there where it relaxes, but only before rushing to get back to that same basal flow structure at least excuse imagined. It's been pretty meh here since the March blizzard. April, May and June have each featured a 3-day warm-to-hot spell with temps 10-20F AN, while only one day (5/9 at -10.3) was double-digit BN. Yet the 3-month avg temp is just 0.03F AN. No gullywashers, no lightning closer than a mile (only one hit inside 2.5 miles), no really strong winds, etc, etc. This even while 5 tornados hit in one day 45-60 miles to my SW and nickel hail much closer than that. GYX recent AFD talks of strong storms tomorrow "south of Rt 2" (among other places.) I live less than 2 miles north of that road - figures. The above looks a lot like whining, but that's not the intent. In 19 winters here I've seen just 3 events that met blizzard criteria - wind speed, visibility, duration. The first 2 came on 12/6-7/03 and 12/21-22, and #3 was by far the "bliizardy-est." (Jan 27-28, 2015 also met the criteria and its single-digit temps would make it a worthy contender, but since I was in SNJ or driving north during that storm, it doesn't count.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 18z gfs with a monster cane headed due north towards us at 384 lol. Can we just get this within a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 On 7/7/2017 at 2:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: Epic stretch of mid summer weather coming up , September like warm days low dews cool nights Looks like some nice normal summer weather...or maybe a bit below at times. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly cooler than normal. && All three major global models now have some troughiness in the day 8/9/10 means. I don't think it'll be "cool" like someone will interpret this post, because its mid-summer and near normal is still warm and nice. Just like in winter when its January and a normal temp pattern is more than sufficient to satisfy. Its just a perfect summer so far and looks to continue. Warm enough to swim and do outdoor recreation without having to hide in the AC....great sleeping weather to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Now it's September days. 82-87 is now September . Ok got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now it's September days. 82-87 is now September . Ok got it Yeah that may be pushing it. Early September at BDL is like 80/58 type stuff...though there may be a couple of those days in the next 10 or so, but I bet its mostly low to mid 80s at the SNE torch station. I say that but the last 4 days (including today) have been a bit below normal at BDL... yesterday's 81/60 was -2 and today's 5pm climo report is showing 73/63 for a -5 on the day. Today's data at BDL is similar to September 5th, but did it with daytime rain keeping the max down. Overall it looks pretty dead on normal to me going forward, though if I had to nod in a direction it may be a bit below normal for some spots like up here which have been running -1 to -2 since June 1st, and pockets of SNE. I see nothing to think it'll get into a sustained above normal pattern though. I know Metherb has been below normal too but when the overall pattern is within a degree or so of normal either way you'll have that local variation. Some spot will be +0.6 and the next will be -0.5 or something. Pretty boring but nice summer...I'd say most are in the -1 to +1 range for departures over the next 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that may be pushing it. Early September at BDL is like 80/58 type stuff...though there may be a couple of those days in the next 10 or so, but I bet its mostly low to mid 80s at the SNE torch station. I say that but the last 4 days (including today) have been a bit below normal at BDL... yesterday's 81/60 was -2 and today's 5pm climo report is showing 73/63 for a -5 on the day. Today's data at BDL is similar to September 5th, but did it with daytime rain keeping the max down. Overall it looks pretty dead on normal to me going forward, though if I had to nod in a direction it may be a bit below normal for some spots like up here which have been running -1 to -2 since June 1st, and pockets of SNE. I see nothing to think it'll get into a sustained above normal pattern though. I know Metherb has been below normal too but when the overall pattern is within a degree or so of normal either way you'll have that local variation. Some spot will be +0.6 and the next will be -0.5 or something. Pretty boring but nice summer...I'd say most are in the -1 to +1 range for departures over the next 10-14 days. I mean even I'll admit no heat or Uber dews..though Tuesday should be 90-92.. but for someone to call 80's September like when highs are normally in 60's and low 70's.. well you'd hope it can be attributed to drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2017 Author Share Posted July 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I mean even I'll admit no heat or Uber dews..though Tuesday should be 90-92.. but for someone to call 80's September like when highs are normally in 60's and low 70's.. well you'd hope it can be attributed to drinking First week of Sept average for the entire day is 70 to 68. What does 80 over 61 average with dews in the low 50s to boot. Heckuva way to run your super hot summer you forecasted, we never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: First week of Sept average for the entire day is 70 to 68. What does 80 over 61 average with dews in the low 50s to boot. Heckuva way to run your super hot summer you forecasted, we never forget. September all next week seems like. Hopefully the crisp weather gets the foliage season off to early start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: September all next week seems like. Hopefully the crisp weather gets the foliage season off to early start I'm taking my COC week of 70's and running with it. I'm flying to Maryland today just for an overnight. It's going to be upper 80's there--I'll give summer your regards. Dank start to today. Pea soup and 61.0* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2017 Author Share Posted July 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: September all next week seems like. Hopefully the crisp weather gets the foliage season off to early start You don't have a climo clue at all it seems, you do know the first weeks of Sept are still summer. I mean I know you judge summer by when the wife and kids go back to school but that is not how climo works. Crisp and cool would be late September and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2017 Author Share Posted July 8, 2017 On 6/25/2017 at 4:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Man long range stuff really has July shaping up to be a humid, warm to at time hot month. WAR is flexing torch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Warm start this week, but another cool down to end it. It's been a nice mix of days this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Warm start this week, but another cool down to end it. It's been a nice mix of days this summer. Nah.. Crisp September wx all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2017 Author Share Posted July 8, 2017 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah.. Crisp September wx all week. Twist away Mr damage, you are having a very very very rough time of it. Looks pretty awesome coming up, some warm, some not but pretty normal but oh how we crow, cocka doodledwlessness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Can we just lock in hr 348 on the 6z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: Can we just lock in hr 348 on the 6z gfs? Boy you're chucking them today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boy you're chucking them today. One of those have to pan out someday!! Lol. 12z it will be gone but fun to look at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 9 out of 21 gefs members give us something from it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 Oh wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Seeing a trend overnight and today of more heat as we hit mid month and beyond. First half of July running +1 to +2 AN. Might really be able to take em up if hotter signal continues getting closer Gfs did too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Looks fall like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks fall like? Fall? Who is forecasting cold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I dunno - ... I've seen this a half dozen times over the last 40 days of this warm season, where there's some semblance in the extended to break things down in lieu of some newer hotter paradigm, but guess what happened... Within a couple days there's nothing left in the guidance that even resembles that suggestion. We just are anchored with a 600 dm ridge node out over the Rockies ... and it's not the ridge there that is controlling; it is the flow interface between the Pacific basin and the whole western continental region of North America that keeps bouncing the ridge back into position, as though these runs were merely pulling on a rubber band all along. Boinnng, right back where it was before the sale's pitch got going. In other words, we can't seem to get those extended appeals to sustain inside to the middle range much less the short term. May not be the case the rest of the way of summer, but there's no history of that hotterlook succeeding up to this point - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: In other words, we can't seem to get those extended appeals to sustain inside to the middle range much less the short term. May not be the case the rest of the way of summer, but there's no history of that hotterlook succeeding up to this point - Yeah every time it seems like we may see more of a western Atlantic ridge at two weeks out, it just goes back to hot in the SW with near normal up here between troughs and some southerly flow interludes. Day 8-10 means continue to show troughiness in the east with more ridging into the W/NW. This pattern has been fairly persistent as you said, Tip, so there's not a lot of reason to think we are going to see large scale changes in the mass fields until there's some more support for sustained eastern ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seeing a trend overnight and today of more heat as we hit mid month and beyond. First half of July running +1 to +2 AN. Might really be able to take em up if hotter signal continues getting closer BDL's +0.7 departure for the first third of July is really impressive. Hope the heat continues to crank down there. Up here its been like living in an oven at -1.6 from normal and a highest temperature of 82F in the first 9 days of July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 18 gfs is pure porn in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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