dendrite Posted May 21, 2017 Share Posted May 21, 2017 Tomorrow could be another day here with a high in the 40s. It's been a beautiful weekend though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Nam and gfs now very wet midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Nam and gfs now very wet midweek Toss. They were wet today. That didn't work . Watch them go south tomorrow. Congrats south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Don't like our chances this weekend for nice weather. Looks like risk is def in favor of unsettled. Saturday best day? Sunday and Monday have several shortwaves passing near by to our south and the globals are probably underestimating the qpf/clouds associated with these. And then we also want to hope that none of these waves amplifies more than current guidance. Teleconnections also favor unsettled and BN for this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Looks like sweatshirts for the tourney Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 42 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like sweatshirts for the tourney Kevin. 70's and sunny? Shirts and tees in Marlboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: 70's and sunny? Shirts and tees in Marlboro Delusional. Must be a Trump voter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, champy said: Delusional. Must be a Trump voter. Saturday and Sunday are nice days with 70's and sun with increasing clouds Sun Pm. Stop the day drinking dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: Don't like our chances this weekend for nice weather. Looks like risk is def in favor of unsettled. Saturday best day? Sunday and Monday have several shortwaves passing near by to our south and the globals are probably underestimating the qpf/clouds associated with these. And then we also want to hope that none of these waves amplifies more than current guidance. Teleconnections also favor unsettled and BN for this weekend... Really - ...my experience is precisely the opposite. Outside short range, model physics "seem" to end up in an over-abundant state of clouds (and related precipitation), from roughly April 15 right through to the end of August. My best surmise is that the models poorly modulate thermodynamics with diurnal heating and issue that seems more endemic beyond 60 to 72 hours in the Globals. I've seen countless cut-offs from late April onward, that even had coastals with closed-off isobaric patterning replete with strata rains ...and what ended up verifying was busted/BRK altostrata and cirrus nebular. Some do go ahead and pollute the sensible weather down to misery, sure... but this time of year has the best odds for aspects to correct better in nearer terms. The difference appears (again) to be the sun's normalizing/homogenizing effects on the lower troposphere. When a system with what looks like strong mid level mechanics whirls into and over a region where the sun has normalized the baroclinic gradients, you end up with models busting to pessimistic. Sometimes though we get things to time right and said whirl happens into a region with fresher llv gradients and then the we'll end up with a more fully vertical integrated system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Saturday I would agree is a relatively nice day. Sunday is a completely different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Friday looks unsettled and cool, Saturday looks like a decent day. Sunday has a bit more uncertainty, but I would lean decent as well, perhaps a bit cool along the coast and some PM clouds entering the region, with perhaps a shower or two in the far west. I'd be a bit more concerned to the west and south of our region on Sunday. Monday is still a ways out but looks a bit dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 6 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Friday looks unsettled and cool, Saturday looks like a decent day. Sunday has a bit more uncertainty, but I would lean decent as well, perhaps a bit cool along the coast and some PM clouds entering the region, with perhaps a shower or two in the far west. I'd be a bit more concerned to the west and south of our region on Sunday. Monday is still a ways out but looks a bit dicey. Slight shower risk here Sunday but we will also play with the warmest temperatures out here so we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Guys, what time do you think the rain starts tomorrow in Central CT??? Late afternoon? Noon?? Have a big event at school, and wondering if we get it in??? Or do we postpone til Friday?? But Friday isn't looking to good either in the morning???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Friday PM might be your best chance Wolf. Perhaps tomorrow before 9 AM might be OK but that's probably not enough time or too early and even thats's not a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 6 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Guys, what time do you think the rain starts tomorrow in Central CT??? Late afternoon? Noon?? Have a big event at school, and wondering if we get it in??? Or do we postpone til Friday?? But Friday isn't looking to good either in the morning???? 10am to noon give or take based on latest models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 I'm impressed at the winter-like complexion of the RGEM's overall evolution with this coastal. It's classic in that guidance, really.. Right down to the secondary/Miller-B back bulged CCB head it blossoms over the region just after the primary fills... Classic, just happens to be rain. But that's an impressive pp anomaly for the end of May there at 990 over Boston Light like that. In fact...just misses the spring tide scheduled for the 25th. We had a decent heat wave (or near so) with some records to boot,... now I don't see any hope for higher heat in any the available Global operational models... The teleconnectors are getting ever less correlative at this time of year going forward but there is some perhaps vestige there to a warm look heading into the first week of June...later on. The operationals seem to want to bite pretty hard into the +PNA's drive on the +PNAP flow structure - which is interesting, because between that particular index and the NAO's rising index, climo would have heights rising over eastern middle latitudes but we don't see the operationals very interested in doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm impressed at the winter-like complexion of the RGEM's overall evolution with this coastal. It's classic in that guidance, really.. Right down to the secondary/Miller-B back bulged CCB head it blossoms over the region just after the primary fills... Classic, just happens to be rain. But that's an impressive pp anomaly for the end of May there at 990 over Boston Light like that. In fact...just misses the spring tide scheduled for the 25th. We had a decent heat wave (or near so) with some records to boot,... now I don't see any hope for higher heat in any the available Global operational models... The teleconnectors are getting ever less correlative at this time of year going forward but there is some perhaps vestige there to a warm look heading into the first week of June...later on. The operationals seem to want to bite pretty hard into the +PNA's drive on the +PNAP flow structure - which is interesting, because between that particular index and the NAO's rising index, climo would have heights rising over eastern middle latitudes but we don't see the operationals very interested in doing that. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good. I assume you're 'good' is in deference to that last paragraph? well - of course... the operational runs went out of their way to now morph the deep extended toward those rising heights I hinted about. I mean, it was there in prior and that's why I intimated the first week of June, but it looks a little more coherent now... It's possible we sans the present tendency for keep plumbing gyres down into the OV region in about a week to tend days...(probably closer to ten+). Frankly I think New England, SE Canada and the Maritimes in general have dodged the GW bullet more times than not over the last 15 years. That is outright notable in NASA yearly (state of the climate) address. Their graphical layout of the anomaly distribution (temperature) ...the vast majority of years shows a region of relative cool node either over us, or close enough to assume we have been tainted by cooler results (again...that's relative to all). It may in fact have been warmer than normal in that time span, but, not AS warm as it could have been in keeping with just about everywhere else.. Anyway, I wonder when it comes home to roost and we get a kind of summer to remember heat wise. GW aside, heat is a fascination for me (not that anyone asked...). It's disrespected (sort of), in how it is not recognized as in the big four for natural disasters, when in reality heat related casualties afflicts just as many people globally as does flood, blizzards, tornadoes and hurricanes. Heat should be added to that... and, there are clear markers and signals, and structures, in the atmosphere that contribute/ point out when heat vs big heat may afflict a region. Example, I've seen big ridges over eastern N/A not be quite as hot. The attending thickness is "gappy" wrt the heights. Contrasting, a similar height bulge may have a Sonoron airmass origin rattling around inside and hell halth no fury like temps up to 102 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Anyway, I wonder when it comes home to roost and we get a kind of summer to remember heat wise. GW aside, heat is a fascination for me (not that anyone asked...). It's disrespected (sort of), in how it is not recognized as in the big four for natural disasters, when in reality heat related casualties afflicts just as many people globally as does flood, blizzards, tornadoes and hurricanes. Heat should be added to that... and, there are clear markers and signals, and structures, in the atmosphere that contribute/ point out when heat vs big heat may afflict a region. The bolded is true, perhaps even understated, but the "disrespect" for heat may be inevitable given human nature. For a given site, a tornado lasts for seconds, maybe a minute or two. Hurricanes usually pass thru in a few hours, blizzards in 1-2 days, even most floods are only a few days in duration. The deleterious effects of heat on people generally take many days to weeks to become apparent, and the damage is often occurring indoors, thus out of sight. Chicago 1995 is a good example; the city recorded heat-related deaths that probably exceed those from any other natural disaster except Katrina, until one looks back to the FL 'canes of the 1920s. People react to drama, and a homeless person freezing to death in the street during January will usually get more headlines than 20 elderly folks perishing in their apartments during July heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 42 minutes ago, tamarack said: The bolded is true, perhaps even understated, but the "disrespect" for heat may be inevitable given human nature. For a given site, a tornado lasts for seconds, maybe a minute or two. Hurricanes usually pass thru in a few hours, blizzards in 1-2 days, even most floods are only a few days in duration. The deleterious effects of heat on people generally take many days to weeks to become apparent, and the damage is often occurring indoors, thus out of sight. Chicago 1995 is a good example; the city recorded heat-related deaths that probably exceed those from any other natural disaster except Katrina, until one looks back to the FL 'canes of the 1920s. People react to drama, and a homeless person freezing to death in the street during January will usually get more headlines than 20 elderly folks perishing in their apartments during July heat. Perception is politics ... The specter of a tornado, or a hurricane, flood and earthquakes ...dogs and cats cuddling together ... you're right in that Humans don't typically respond well to non-perceived threats like those they cannot actually visibly see. This is the crisis of information heeding- related to GW (for example)... GW is not a coiled up menacing black tube of immense sucking cloud power carving a canal through a farmstead out in the Plains. It's an abstraction... just like Vesuvius was to the Pompeians ..oh, they new it was a volcano. Much in the same way an idiot nay-sayer knows that the climate varies from year to year... But, the equivalence in the form of ecological disaster, sea level rise, agricultural failure, and deadly pathogenic results of GW ...all culminating in causing geopolitical destablization to the brink of WWIII ...triggering an evolutionary scaled population correction - it is all really just a macrocosm paradigm of the same God saying, seeee - ya shoulda listened to the warning signs ya dumb f*cks. anyway, heat is a bit of an abstraction in that same way. It does take a toll over time, and is a bit of a silent killer. Although, I'd argue that sudden pulsed onset of a hot afternoon can take a Baseball game or a construction site by surprise and be pretty dangerous too. I read about the amazing hot summer in the 1936, where just about every state in the contiguous U.S. (save NE, what's new) set their all-time state hottest summer. Although even here...most places set high temperature records at some point or the other. It was truly magical if you like that sort of thing... Some records have probably fallen since... but, there was one epic heat wave that stress comprehension in that summer...something like a 13 day bender that had nights at 85 in Minneapolis St Paul and days between 100 and 115 the whole way. I just wonder, given to the climate curve and differences, should that same patterning/summer persistence set in now, if it would be even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Study: Cold kills 20 times more people than heat The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat. Because the study included countries under different socio-economic backgrounds and with varying climates, it was representative of temperature-related deaths worldwide, the study said. This report backs up a U.S. study last year from the National Center for Health Statistics, which found that cold kills more than twice as many Americans as heat. https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/ Cold is definitely a much more effective killer than heat The sharp distinction between heat- and cold-related deaths is because low temperatures cause more problems for the body's cardiovascular and respiratory systems, it added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 right ... cold too - the phenomenon of temperature departures sufficient to incur damages of any multiple recognized (perhaps a scientifically derived thresholds), are 'wave' events that should be construed in the same recognition manifold as other natural disasters. but... wait! you can't 'see' air, so it's not a real monster - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: anyway, heat is a bit of an abstraction in that same way. It does take a toll over time, and is a bit of a silent killer. Although, I'd argue that sudden pulsed onset of a hot afternoon can take a Baseball game or a construction site by surprise and be pretty dangerous too. I read about the amazing hot summer in the 1936, where just about every state in the contiguous U.S. (save NE, what's new) set their all-time state hottest summer. Although even here...most places set high temperature records at some point or the other. It was truly magical if you like that sort of thing... Some records have probably fallen since... but, there was one epic heat wave that stress comprehension in that summer...something like a 13 day bender that had nights at 85 in Minneapolis St Paul and days between 100 and 115 the whole way. I just wonder, given to the climate curve and differences, should that same patterning/summer persistence set in now, if it would be even worse. Amazing indeed. I've gathered statewide extremes for hottest and coldest days, wettest and driest years, thus 200 records overall with some dating back 150+ years. The decade of the 1930s holds 52 of those extremes; 1950s rank #2 with exactly half and no other decade exceeds 20. The '30s own 23 heat records, 14 just in 1936 - more than 1/4 of the states in just a single year. That decade also has 10 cold records, 17 dry-year records, and ironically, 2 wettest years, in WA and ID. Five sixths of the New England exclusion comes from two events - Hot Saturday 1975 (MA/RI) and July 1911 (the 3 NNE states.) CT's record was set in 1995. However, the region does protrude geographically from the rest of the country, so its being different should be no surprise. It's like 1965 as the driest year for 6 SNE and MA states - NY misses out due to the west portion's drier climate, though for NYC that year had over 6" less precip than any other in 140+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 I question that record Danbury COOP reading of 106F in 1995 too. DXR airport had peak hourlies of 95F and 98F for the 2 hot days and BDL had 99F and 100F. 106F smells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I question that record Danbury COOP reading of 106F in 1995 too. DXR airport had peak hourlies of 95F and 98F for the 2 hot days and BDL had 99F and 100F. 106F smells. Ha...just looked up the coop form... https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-C0FE9D55-2079-4317-9F44-07BE7F918236.pdf Meteorologist Bill Jacquemin. His profile here seems a little, well...hyped. http://www.ctweather.com/meet-ctweathers-team He has quite the vivid description of supposedly getting hit by lightning. I'm not sure if I got struck if I'd be able to recount the specifics like that. It happens kind of fast I would presume. He created some weather service back in the 80s/90 too, and for some reason he found it important enough to put it on the COOP form. That 106F ob smells all the way up here to NH now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 SOS for S NH tomorrow on the 18z NAM. Saturday is trending a lot more meh for ENE. Cool E/NE flow and looking a lot more grey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 ironically Euro has ENE with the best wx this weekend now as it brings in drying aloft and clearing from the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 I like the look overall for the lakes region of Maine where I will be located late Friday- early Monday. I'm not sold on the showers likely on the point and click for Memorial Day yet either, especially during the morning up there. Hopefully we can sneak in a dry Memorial Day parade and let the showers move in when we're driving home in the PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 16 hours ago, dendrite said: I question that record Danbury COOP reading of 106F in 1995 too. DXR airport had peak hourlies of 95F and 98F for the 2 hot days and BDL had 99F and 100F. 106F smells. 16 hours ago, dendrite said: Ha...just looked up the coop form... https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-C0FE9D55-2079-4317-9F44-07BE7F918236.pdf Meteorologist Bill Jacquemin. His profile here seems a little, well...hyped. http://www.ctweather.com/meet-ctweathers-team He has quite the vivid description of supposedly getting hit by lightning. I'm not sure if I got struck if I'd be able to recount the specifics like that. It happens kind of fast I would presume. He created some weather service back in the 80s/90 too, and for some reason he found it important enough to put it on the COOP form. That 106F ob smells all the way up here to NH now. Yeah that 106 record looks really suspect...I'm actually pretty shocked that it still stands as the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 And that weak wave on Saturday--and that the mesos would key in on this sticking around--was a big concern I had going several days back. Looks like southern sections of the sub forum will be fighting mostly cloudy to overcast skies tomorrow afternoon. And the rest of us try to thread the needle, while still being well BN. Then the best weather will be North on Sunday (ex Maine) as a backdoor pushes into SNE and the northern mid Atlantic and slows, allowing onshore flow off the cold Atlantic to rule the day. Looks nasty for coastal SNE, and especially the islands south of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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