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Model Mehham

1,844 posts in this topic

Yeah the GGEM loves to spit out clown solutions past D4 or 5. Does it during tropical season too.

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19 hours ago, dendrite said:

idk how you can hate summer in New England.

I'm not sure it's that simple.  

It fascinated me enough that I actually researched the matter fairly extensively.  I've tried to enlighten the general public in here as to those findings but it tended to spark resentment if not vitriol so I abstained.  

In simple terms, there is a -(S.A.D.) condition recently identified and refereed/papered by the psychology field et al.  What it is, is just about exactly what that implies: those whose perceptions and functional emotions are negatively influenced by what consensus would considered to be 'nice' weather; in other words, opposite the S.A.D. condition consistent with the more well-renowned version of that disorder. 

Most who 'suffer' climate conditioning of that ilk are on the +(S.A.D.) side, but there is a contingent  (~20%) of backdrop population that actually prefers stormy if not gloomy times.  I first heard of this discussed on National Public Radio, and found their guests' psycho-babble descriptions of those sort of people interestingly and eerily similar to the sorts of reactions we 'sense' if not outright detect goes on in here when say ...some big storm fails to pass inside middle to short ranges on the guidance.  There is a visualization that goes on with that, that is augmented and enhanced by the models and/or modeling tools in general...that (imho) drills right into that -(S.A.D) and really cranks the dial up on it too - fever pitch.  The cinema in the "models" enable in a lot of ways, in the psychological definition of what the word means, too.

It's like the internet and these operational guidance tools were specifically created to wind up a particular mentality; one that I think is technically a 'dysfunctionality' really because anything that adversely affects someone emotionally and/or mood-wise, that really ultimately does not actually do anything to them is an instability. The only difference here is that it's really ultimately pretty harmless.

But we know this and joke about it...  People have referred to "it" as "the sickness" ...ribbing and tongue-in-cheek and so forth but, some element of truth resides in all humor as they say.  

There's all that, but there is also an entirely different reason for the 'arousal' or 'wind-up' phenomenon, and it has to do with just simply wanting to experience dramatic weather?  I used to actually feel physically nauseated back in the day when say... four days of blizzard watches unexpectantly verified as mere milk sun, in a biting 9 F wind, while the air festooned with mocking flurries.  

Depending on which form one takes above ... there is definitely (in my mind) a kind of distilling process that the phenomenon of Internet sub-forum concentrates as users come and either decide to stay or go in time...  

It's not just that Summer is boring?  I find that to be edging on the side of disingenuous, really. It's that Summer does little to satisfy the above preference spectrum of users who don't give a schit about the transient impact of weak sauce thunderstorms, or the occasional dimmed heat wave because BDs pressed historic heat down to DC... 

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It isn't a likely outcome of course ... however, the GEFs derivative have been trying to jam a cold pattern down our throats for a few days at CDC.  The CPC isn't quite as emphatic in their numbers, but the CDC looks like a mid winter enthusiast's dream scenario, with a strong phase change rising from -1 to +1 PNA, which an NAO dive.  The EPO also was negative leading the PNA ...which is a lag behavior that is pretty critical in actually getting a +PNA to deliver cold south. 

But, ...this isn't mid winter.  So even if the CPC comes around a bit ...we have to wonder what the R-wave distribution would look like.  

Anyway, I just wonder if/when another shoe falls we end up pretty annoyed ... I wonder what the teleconnectors looked like prior to May 2005 -

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not just that Summer is boring?  I find that to be edging on the side of disingenuous, really. It's that Summer does little to satisfy the above preference spectrum of users who don't give a schit about the transient impact of weak sauce thunderstorms, or the occasional dimmed heat wave because BDs pressed historic heat down to DC... 

the second bolded part is exactly what makes the first bolded part true.

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Summer is right up there with winter to me-love it!   Fall and spring blow particularly spring.

IDK they all are great some days, I mean a 65 degree May day with full bloom, how can that suck, the same with fall with full colors. The best part of NE is like what happened this weekend, you literally could be in 90 degree heat and then skiing in superb snow within hours. In the summer you can be sitting inside AC while its 100 degrees and then in an hour be in the  70s swimming at the beach with cool refreshing breezes. All seasons have their dark days of 40 to 50 degree raw rains but all seasons can be absolutely spectacular. The  Chamber of Commerce is proud.

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Summer weather is boring...and that's fine. I don't love it for anything interesting weatherwise. I just enjoy the activities, hobbies, and everything else that comes along with the season. By August I've had just about enough of it which makes the September step down perfect timing. I guess if someone isn't into anything that strictly requires warm season weather it'd be easy to hate it. Seasons in seasons though.

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 Aside from oppressively humid days I love summer but there are things I love about all of the seasons. 

 I'm even digging today despite it being overcast and a bit cool here.  I pretty much won't have long pants on again until October.

...unless it snows next week.

 

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That' still okay but, meteorology doesn't just cover what people want... ?  That's what makes the contribution in here dubious to the extend of egregious to be involved in at time - it's just a special interest group that happens to be fixated (regardless of psycho-babble cause) on a narrow aspect that happens to be proximal to weather. 

That's the annoying rub for objective unbiased weather enthusiast. 

To each is own I suppose but even our 92 heat waves and CB formations and so forth is fine for entertaining value to me as a Met that appreciates "weather"

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

That' still okay but, meteorology doesn't just cover what people want... ?  That's what makes the contribution in here dubious to the extend of egregious to be involved in at time - it's just a special interest group that happens to be fixated (regardless of psycho-babble cause) on a narrow aspect that happens to be proximal to weather. 

That's the annoying rub for objective unbiased weather enthusiast. 

To each is own I suppose but even our 92 heat waves and CB formations and so forth is fine for entertaining value to me as a Met that appreciates "weather"

welcome to the forum.

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18 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

looks like a potent vortmax moving through though despite the QPF output 

I wouldn't be that surprised to see flakes one more time .. of course any accumulation is a whole different animal. There have been some interesting looking Op GFS weenie runs the past couple days in the extended ( day 7+). Just for entertainment sake, there was a region wide snowstorm on the 0z GFS a couple nights back at the end of the run (for like 4/28). 

Who knows .. maybe we are due for a late spring snow? Seems like there is a pattern with years ending in 7 (notwithstanding 2007) .. 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 .. 

Although its probably all moot and we end up with a cutoff low off shore with days of misery mist and onshore flow .. 

Shoildn't dismiss 2007, snowiest April on record for many Maine points.

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Shoildn't dismiss 2007, snowiest April on record for many Maine points.

It was very snowy here too although I don't recall much in the 2nd half of the month. I'm not sure what he considers to be late Spring.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was very snowy here too although I don't recall much in the 2nd half of the month. I'm not sure what he considers to be late Spring.

2007 snows ended with whatever came with the Patriot's Day storm.  Since 1997 snows for SNE mainly ended on the 1st, except for some on 18-19 for the western SNE hills, I'd think all of April would be in play.

That's the annoying rub for objective unbiased weather enthusiast. 

Is this not a non-existent species?

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

That' still okay but, meteorology doesn't just cover what people want... ?  That's what makes the contribution in here dubious to the extend of egregious to be involved in at time - it's just a special interest group that happens to be fixated (regardless of psycho-babble cause) on a narrow aspect that happens to be proximal to weather. 

That's the annoying rub for objective unbiased weather enthusiast. 

To each is own I suppose but even our 92 heat waves and CB formations and so forth is fine for entertaining value to me as a Met that appreciates "weather"

lol you never "get it"

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8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Long range is looking BN temps which would be ok if it was going to be dry but looks like that won't be the case. 

It's good to have a wet spring. You head into summer good in the water dept and as far as caterpillars go...it will keep them down too.

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On 4/12/2017 at 5:26 PM, ma blizzard said:

looks like a potent vortmax moving through though despite the QPF output 

I wouldn't be that surprised to see flakes one more time .. of course any accumulation is a whole different animal. There have been some interesting looking Op GFS weenie runs the past couple days in the extended ( day 7+). Just for entertainment sake, there was a region wide snowstorm on the 0z GFS a couple nights back at the end of the run (for like 4/28). 

Who knows .. maybe we are due for a late spring snow? Seems like there is a pattern with years ending in 7 (notwithstanding 2007) .. 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 .. 

Although its probably all moot and we end up with a cutoff low off shore with days of misery mist and onshore flow .. 

April 2007 had a major snowstorm in NNE on Patriot's Day/Tax Day. Was 970mb over NYC. Had 5" at Middlebury VT.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like our warm party is over after Monday. Days of 40's and 50's and misery drizzle

Not a terrible assessment here, Kev', in terms of general appeal  - heh. 

We've actually had a pretty lucky go of it (for those that no longer 'want' snow and cold) so far when we compare the regional verification/experiences against April climate/typology.   The latter of which ...honestly, I don't know what the actual numbers are?  But, we all know that April's of yesteryear have featured blizzards, heat waves, oscillations between the two, and too often ...good old fashioned stubborn, persistent dank so unrelenting as to drive denizens to the brink of cabin fever.  And yes, sometimes when the weather god hasn't been paying attention, even periods of exceptionally serene conditions, say ... 60s or 70s with blue heavens allowing seasonal return of the sun to kiss our napes. 

That was just for you - ha!  

But seriously, I don't know what weather type above is 'more likely' based upon climate numbers.  Personally, I'm usually so dreading if not fearing the annual 45 days venture down the weather imperilled yellow-brick road of spring in New England, I'm just too pre-occupied dodging the monkeys to quantify it all..  Spring more typically just sucks around here (imho), and like I say, ..this first two weeks of April so far isn't it - that's where we've been lucky. What the synoptic tapestry offered up by the models for next week is actually more akin to memory. 

So we'll see.. But, more practically, having midland to large sized southern Canadian polar high pressure developing and then translating painfully slowly across 3 or 4 days straight E and then NE of New England will at first impart NW flow...that gradually veers E over the time span.  Over which, throwing occasional reasons to saturate the low level air mass from weak systems passing west ...it all could enforce days of socked in schits.  

I just I don't think I've ever recall an April that went end to end with these laissez faire type days the whole way.  The type of gloom we've endured thus far is of a different ilk than 'dank' described above; it's transient and the next day has flipped right around to decent conditions.  It may be time to eat it...  

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