dendrite Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Maybe an early flip to -DIT? Was a slim chance before this post, but certainly not now. The DIT likes to flip when it's unpredicted. It's the one index we havethat is influenced by human emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Flip for a day or two of temps in the 70's? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Flip for a day or two of temps in the 70's? lol You've been in the 70s most of the last month there in Tolland, that's true. Why change now. That is one good trough on the Euro...4-5+ days of H85 temps under 10C for everyone. Highs might get to 70F in the torch spots verbatim, but hill towns would be mid-60s at best. I agree it's likely overdone with the duration of the trough, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Weeklies look near to maybe slightly BN too. Back is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look near to maybe slightly BN too. Back is broken. It was always broken this year.. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 ...it's been this charts for days actually... what was hinted at four or so days ago (re the late mid and extended range) is becoming a bit more coherent. There's no argument in my mind that the big high look of the GGEM and the hints however supported by the other guidance types ... all hearken to a typical autumnal/October type of anticyclone. Thing is, it doesn't really look to me like a 'back break' toward seasonal dimming sort of affectation .... if not quantifiable turn; that sort of distinction for me is lost this particular year into a back-ground obscurity of eerily locked in troughing that was never fair to summer. What it really just looks like is persistence not yielding, type a thing. Usually at some point now through the first week of September, if the summer back doesn't break it is slipping a disk somewhere along the way in there anyway - this idea of dewy mornings in the mid to upper 40s with a couple afternoons in the low to mid 70s may as well be one or the other. Part of that persistence above for me is that until it really convincingly changes, NOT wasting time putting summer to bed is an easy assumption to make this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Moral of the story. Enjoy the next handful of days of summer. The 6z GFS carries single digit C 850s into September. Looks like another year where most saw their warmest temps in May or June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 First week of Sept looks well above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: First week of Sept looks well above 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Man what a cool down later next week. I can't wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man what a cool down later next week. I can't wait. Careful about a "not as cool as it looks" pull back from models as we close in. Like instead of 68-73..more like 77-80. No heat, but classic models over bias cooling trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man what a cool down later next week. I can't wait. Days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Careful about a "not as cool as it looks" pull back from models as we close in. Like instead of 68-73..more like 77-80. No heat, but classic models over bias cooling trough This isn't a euro op d10 cold shot on its own anymore. At your elevation I'd even consider uninstalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Bigger disappointment this summer... The heat or the Yankee's bullpen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Careful about a "not as cool as it looks" pull back from models as we close in. Like instead of 68-73..more like 77-80. No heat, but classic models over bias cooling trough lol you wouldn't come close to 77-80F in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you wouldn't come close to 77-80F in that. It must be hard living a double life. Wake up at 4am, go out to run 10 miles, and think to yourself, "Wow. This airmass with low dews feels amazing." Then he comes home and has to start posting about high heat and TP to keep the charade going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: It must be hard living a double life. Wake up at 4am, go out to run 10 miles, and think to yourself, "Wow. This airmass with low dews feels amazing." Then he comes home and has to start posting about high heat and TP to keep the charade going. Haha yeah it's like how many cool shots this summer have verified much warmer than expected? Why change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 I can make a post, come back an hour or whatever time later and predict exactly who will have commented. Lol .. too easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I can make a post, come back an hour or whatever time later and predict exactly who will have commented. Lol .. too easy I can check in 530am every morning and already know what your model interpretation will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 It's the all cold all the time crew.. there's a few select members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's the all cold all the time crew.. there's a few select members It's more those that call it like they see it? Total honesty, how many times this summer have you really thought it was going to get sustained heat in New England? Not your wishcasting finding a tweet or two musing about maybe some warmth in 2 weeks. The fact of the matter is this is what this summer is. Who would constantly forecast heat this summer given the available model guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's more those that call it like they see it? Total honesty, how many times this summer have you really thought it was going to get sustained heat in New England? Not your wishcasting finding a tweet or two musing about maybe some warmth in 2 weeks. The fact of the matter is this is what this summer is. Who would constantly forecast heat this summer given the available model guidance? No one would. But it hasn't been a cool or chilly summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one would. But it hasn't been a cool or chilly summer I agree it's not chilly...it's still shorts and t-shirts. But at least where I am it has been solidly below normal compared to the mean of the previous 30 summers. We'll have to see how the day 5 Euro does...it's been steadfast with a huge trough moving through for 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 I'm gonna throw a fropa party Wednesday. What an airmass coming later this week. First shot across the bow of summer will be fired by the fleet of Fall troughs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Any signs of a more wet period beginning mid-sept or does it look dry for much of the month? My lawn wants to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Ahhhhhhh GFSX MOS (MEX) K1P1 GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 8/22/2017 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28| TUE 29|WED CLIMO N/X 62 79| 50 74| 49 70| 46 71| 46 73| 48 74| 50 74| 49 51 74 TMP 66 66| 56 63| 54 60| 52 60| 51 62| 52 63| 54 63| 54 DPT 59 56| 52 55| 50 52| 48 51| 49 53| 50 56| 53 55| 51 CLD OV CL| CL PC| PC PC| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL WND 5 8| 2 7| 3 9| 2 8| 2 5| 1 4| 1 4| 1 P12 76 4| 8 17| 11 10| 6 10| 10 13| 11 13| 12 17| 18999999 P24 84| 17| 11| 10| 19| 21| 23| 999 Q12 2 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 2| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 38 1| 0 5| 1 1| 0 1| 2 3| 2 3| 2 5| 4 T24 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 D11 froster shows up on the 12z GFS - WHOSE WITH ME?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/19/2017 at 10:02 AM, dendrite said: Moral of the story. Enjoy the next handful of days of summer. The 6z GFS carries single digit C 850s into September. Looks like another year where most saw their warmest temps in May or June. Weather has been stunning. Living in Dover for a few more months and time off means mornings on Ogunquit Beach a lot. Very happy for an orderly progression into an equally stunning fall if that is what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: D11 froster shows up on the 12z GFS - WHOSE WITH ME?! I'd like one more week for the tomatoes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Would be a nice pattern in the winter. Ridge out west, trough in the Lakes and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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