tamarack Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: i think i'm the only person that drops by this social media outlet that still uses PCs and lap-tops... I'd be the 2nd, except we don't have a laptop. heh...yeah. GFS has3 straight days of 50s here. We'll see, but I'll take the over on that. It's looking crappy either way though. GFS is into its magical disappearing qpf mode, now that we're under 100 hr. Showed about 2" for Mon-Tues yesterday, and 2/3" this morning. Two days of 50s dz, just what the garden needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 What a nice GFS fail in just 12hrs time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2017 Author Share Posted July 21, 2017 Euro has a roughly 68 degree average for the last 7 days of the month in Boston, this could be ugly and a top 5 coolest end to July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Would be a welcome change from the furnace of the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: What a nice GFS fail in just 12hrs time. It's really failing on my Meteostar link, showing 12z for 3 days ago. Did the rain and cold go away? Or just the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 Hard to tell what that is. The NAM grid numbers look like a whip BD but synoptically it's an unseasonal baroclinic wave replete with cold side conveyor. Logan goes from SW to abrupt NE over 20 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Sneaky little 2-3 day hot spell next week Tues-Thurs. One..maybe 2 days may hit 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The Euro's precip depiction through Sunday would send me straight to the Tobin if it were January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoth said: The Euro's precip depiction through Sunday would send me straight to the Tobin if it were January. We wish it south now and flip the table in 6 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 This is a perfect time to chop one off of the "major whiffer" quota... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 On 7/13/2017 at 6:16 PM, ineedsnow said: Just something to talk about... Ugh the weather has been boring.. This is why I tune out from April to August....useless in every sense. At least in the coming weeks, cane delusions and winter speculation ensues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 On 7/14/2017 at 9:39 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Boring summer weather is fantastic. Lets leave the excitement for the cold months. I'm sorry I invited you to our league...what a fantasy pimp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 On 7/15/2017 at 8:29 AM, Typhoon Tip said: The persistence of this pattern,.. which locked in circa mid spring and is unrelenting since, is nothing shy of staggering. We still live under a fluid medium, supposedly one that is in part guided along by fractal permutation - yet, this has proven immovable. It is as though some great force pinned the trough axis in place, and then let the rest of the atmosphere carry on... as a result, it's pivoting around and island of disappointing trough node. But it has been redeeming in a couple of ways...obviously first and foremost we have not had to deal with as much heat this go of summer ...thus far. But, we seem to carrying on with a positive anomaly thunderstorm days. Whether they have been severe ...or ultimately satisfying for whatever regard aside, we have had no shortage of crispy towering CB's on horizons and/or the transient excitement of some wind, heavy rain and loud thunder. Otherwise, it's like the planet has an agenda NOT to bring heat into the NE and its an obsessive angry beady-eyed OCD too. Frankly, some variation of this has happened across the last three summer - not so much the convective behavior, ..or the exact flow structure of the comparative patterns, either. But, the stop heat at least excuse imagined, as an emergent property of the maelstrom, has succeeded now for three years and counting. Personal druthers aside ... I find that interestingly banal. It's boring and non-inventive, and is really concealing an angry atmosphere and planet. Ever since the block-buster historic February snows of 2015 ...the atmosphere has been locked in mute summer, struggled winter appeal. Flat-lined... It's like a "negative event" anomaly. There have been point to point ..less that regional scale interesting things from time to time. Obviously this isn't carrying on in a vacuum either. But, extended heat wave torridity ...gone. Big winters.... gone... I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong.. Last summer was hot. I think BDL had like 17 days of 90+ in just July alone. Compared to like 3 this year or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Last summer was hot. I think BDL had like 17 days of 90+ in just July alone. Compared to like 3 this year or something like that. 5 90+ this month, but if you want to make the cold sound really impressive BDL has had only 2 days of >90F, but 3 days of <70F (exactly 3 days of highs of 90F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong.. It was ...relative to climo ...and perhaps to good deal by experience. However, it "could have been" a LOT hotter... We kept seeing a bizarre sort of 'split' between the 500 and 700 mb levels, where the 500 would ridge in the east from time to time ..but for some reason the 700 mb was out of phase. That lower level tended to be NW flow regimes while it was W or even WSW aloft. It's one reason (among others probably) why it was so dry because that is an inherently stable sounding regime.. But, it kept splicing the heat SW of us before it could get in. We ended up above normal but following routinely shy of what the 500 mb height evolution would suggest we should. Last summer was very idiosyncratic in how it shunted the heat SW of us while having a look of a warm pattern. This year, it's really more about just having the deep layer tropospheric circulation medium walling off our region from the benefits of global warming...ha... kidding there of course . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought last summer was pretty hot....maybe I'm wrong.. Probably depends on one's location. JJA 3-month average at my place was 0.10F above my 19-year avg. (Only 2011, BN by 0.08F, is closer to the average.) Of course, the Farmington co-op's average for those 19 years is 0.62F higher than their average for 1981-10, so I'm measuring against an elevated platform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 As we've been mentioning for 7-10 days now .. big E coast ridging on its way. Get ready folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: As we've been mentioning for 7-10 days now .. big E coast ridging on its way. Get ready folks Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Who is Ben Noll? Cherry picked product ... It's specialization is eliding a number of aspects, but one in particular: that "painting" of the synoptic state is a snap-shot that doesn't pay necessary homage to the fact that a near-by trough axis in the (most important) mid-level flow structure still presses S out of central eastern Canada. That 'appeal' as shown above is thus highly vulnerable if the next frame were available, not to mention suspect as not occurring for more reasons than the usual uncertainty at uselessly long lead modeling. Why don't we first discuss how that look has been on every D10 the entire summer and has always ended up with another OV amplitude enough to do the opposite, smash heat south. Actually ...heh, for that matter, first consider it's day-10-ness ...duh. And that the preceding days were spent in trough anomaly all over the E. There may in fact be reasons to assess warmth out there? way out there..But, that above was bad choice of products to us - what? just because it's "pretty" and looks hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Of course ... we probably are going be rather torrid this incoming week ...relative to present if not outrightly so - The MOS products I've been seeing have been fairly routinely throwing up > 85 highs with DPs well into the 60s. Then operationally, models have > 12 C, 850 MB air much of the time (and no countermanding onshore flow structures to the PP) That's probably all code for, not exactly cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 Overnight runs continue to signal east coast ridging as drum beats get louder. It may end up extended period of high dews and not torrid heat, but signals have been there for a week now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 Nice trough you posted there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 I will agree though that that image looks like the best cold centered west of us. idk about high dews, but maybe slow or stalling cold fropas with decent rain chances and sloppy second cool airmasses? That's 2 weeks out though so who knows. Maybe the trough axis will verify more over us as has been the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I will agree though that that image looks like the best cold centered west of us. idk about high dews, but maybe slow or stalling cold fropas with decent rain chances and sloppy second cool airmasses? That's 2 weeks out though so who knows. Maybe the trough axis will verify more over us as has been the theme. Right.. it's not an out and out hot pattern. It is showing the WAR building west onto the east coast . Kind of like this week while we dew and get near 90, they get big cool shot out west and that front struggles to get thru EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 On 7/28/2017 at 11:14 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: Stay safe. On 7/28/2017 at 7:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said: As we've been mentioning for 7-10 days now .. big E coast ridging on its way. Get ready folks Fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Fail? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 EC trended with lower heights again in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EC trended with lower heights again in the extended. Yeah...more of the same. I won't believe prolonged heat until we get it inside 5 days. This week looks like typical summer heat. Upper 80s to near 90 with dews varying in the 60s. Warm and somewhat humid, but nothing to Gronk spike about. Just hand the ball over to the ref like you've been there before like Barry Sanders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 So...just painting with a very broad brush as far as potential tropical weather goes, For at least August, wouldn't this favor any disturbances being steered move WNW towards the US verses out to sea? Perhaps towards the Gulf and then coming northeast bound around the Bermuda high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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