Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Model Mehham


Ginx snewx
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Doodledewless dandy?

Yeah when I was at the gym this afternoon they had The Weather Channel on a couple TVs forcing me to watch endless Local on the 8's and the entire forecast didn't have a high temperature of 80F or above.  Highs of mid to upper 70s with lows upper 40s to mid-50s. 

NWS forecast for town has 77F as the highest temperature in the next 7 days.

We've been getting the moisture when the higher dews advect northward but a dry pattern smacks of W/NW flow instead of S/SW aloft.

Perfect Chamber weather for the 4th too... highs in the lower 70s in the valleys and mid-50s at the picnic tables under sunny skies.

Independence Day.... Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I get 21 from instant weather and definitely a few from 12z.    18z has a few also

yes I figured you were seeing a larger array of members then than 'standard 12' that's disseminated - what I was dancing around is, what is special about those 12 versus the 54 ... ( I think the total member count is higher than even 21 but don't quote me ...) 

anyway, the thinking being, if the other ones are not disseminated because they are more experimental (say) than that would lower any confidences that much further. 

but we know it's all meaningless for now anyway.  what I found to be most presently noteworthy of all is that the GFS operational model began churning out runs with a TC out there in the 'Verdi rail service some 13 days ago and has never deviated.   that's really pretty f'n extraordinary model performance on this ... Presently the wave has become better defined convection-wise with even early hints of curvature/banded overall layout on IR channels.  Nhc concurs and has this in the 70th percentile for development beyond the near term. 

ha!  you know what - the next step will be the GFS doing a 1938er  at 13 days lead time and us 'weathering the storm' of passive ridicule from Meteorologists swooping in to reminds us we are all just provincial rubes with too much imagination :)  

kidding of course - 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah when I was at the gym this afternoon they had The Weather Channel on a couple TVs forcing me to watch endless Local on the 8's and the entire forecast didn't have a high temperature of 80F or above.  Highs of mid to upper 70s with lows upper 40s to mid-50s. 

NWS forecast for town has 77F as the highest temperature in the next 7 days.

We've been getting the moisture when the higher dews advect northward but a dry pattern smacks of W/NW flow instead of S/SW aloft.

Perfect Chamber weather for the 4th too... highs in the lower 70s in the valleys and mid-50s at the picnic tables under sunny skies.

Independence Day.... Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

i've noticed a distinct 'pattern of posting behavior' that's gotten somewhat predictable between you and Steve -vs- Kevin in this on-going web banter over summer weather. 

whenever the Euro comes out at 00z and may happen to have a hottish look in the late middle/ext range, invariably there is a post like this awaiting in the morning that extols the celebratory virtue of the muted summer of cool low humidity... :) 

funny - it's like you are anticipating Kevin's rage and trying to cut if off at the pass hahahaha

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i've noticed a distinct 'pattern of posting behavior' that's gotten somewhat predictable between you and Steve -vs- Kevin in this on-going web banter over summer weather. 

whenever the Euro comes out at 00z and may happen to have a hottish look in the late middle/ext range, invariably there is a post like this awaiting in the morning that extols the celebratory virtue of the muted summer of cool low humidity... :) 

funny - it's like you are anticipating Kevin's rage and trying to cut if off at the pass hahahaha

Yeah they just ignored the Euro backing off any real cooling days 6-10. Was a pretty warm, Dewey run

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah they just ignored the Euro backing off any real cooling days 6-10. Was a pretty warm, Dewey run

well... knows if that is what they are actually doing ... They are discussing the nearer term through Friday or so ... and they are right!  Should be temperate week of limited anomalies.  

They may not 'choose' to look at that deeper range ... whether that is because they don't like what it says?  

Perhaps - who knows, but, you're own penchants for overstating warm matters knows no bounds and for that ...you honestly kind of deserve it when others pull the sanity dial back to neutral by counter-offering opposing perspectives.  Ha ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... knows if that is what they are actually doing ... They are discussing the nearer term through Friday or so ... and they are right!  Should be temperate week of limited anomalies.  

They may not 'choose' to look at that deeper range ... whether that is because they don't like what it says?  

Perhaps - who knows, but, you're own penchants for overstating warm matters knows no bounds and for that ...you honestly kind of deserve it when others pull the sanity dial back to neutral by counter-offering opposing perspectives.  Ha ha.

Haha, I think everyone tries to keep reality in here a bit.  When it looks hot, it looks hot.  When it looks nice, it looks nice.  I don't spend a lot of time looking at the day 7-10 stuff in the summer at all.

My weather is also quite a bit different from that down in CT, so its hard to compare sometimes.  Lots of times Kev is humid with dews in the 60s while we are 75/53 up here.  The highest average maximum at MVL is 82F I believe in mid-summer.  We do get a lot of highs in the 70s during the summer so its not like its a cool pattern...just very enjoyable weather for doing outside recreation. 

Yesterday is a prime example... lots of warm readings of 90F at BDL, 88F at CON, and the high up here was 78F. 

Of course our opinions will be different when we get those types of days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yesterday is a prime example... lots of warm readings of 90F at BDL, 88F at CON, and the high up here was 78F. 

Of course our opinions will be different when we get those types of days. 

Today is another one...upper 60s and low 70s right now up here while a large portion of SNE looks to be heading decently into the 80s.

Obviously we will have some differences of opinion on sensible weather if you are somewhere that is 71F with a breeze, vs. 80-85F already at noon and climbing.

July_3.jpg.d9f684052dc805e8814c1169df181a83.jpg

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today is another one...upper 60s and low 70s right now up here while a large portion of SNE looks to be heading decently into the 80s.

Obviously we will have some differences of opinion on sensible weather if you are somewhere that is 71F with a breeze, vs. 80-85F already at noon and climbing.

July_3.jpg.d9f684052dc805e8814c1169df181a83.jpg

 

74* with a strong breeze hete at Chez Pit at 12:45.  We call this COC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You don't think 5 days is enough time to dry out?

Seeing large parts of my road were washed away and there are roads closed throughout town, getting a heavy rain in a few days would not be a good thing.  The drainage ditch at the bottom of our land is completely filled with rocks and gravel from up the road.  This is blocking the culverts.  There are a number of spots where the road has not collapsed but there is nothing supporting the edges anymore.  I am hoping that we can avoid big rains until the roads are fixed, the repairs needed to stabilize them, and the cleanup is done to stop a quick repeat..

Here is an article on the weekend flooding:

https://dailyuv.com/news/910706

and another

https://dailyuv.com/news/910805

For me the 12Z would not be a big deal as it gives me only half an inch but the multiple inch rains are too close for comfort.  That being said, it is the GFS and subject to change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...