weathafella Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh the one snapshot pretty H5 colors. Yeah eps says warm but not hot. Not so unusual 7/3-10...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Yeah eps says warm but not hot. Not so unusual 7/3-10...lol. So... any particular reason why the EPS is more right than the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So... any particular reason why the EPS is more right than the operational? Maybe 51 perturbations vs 1? Besides, the op doesn't go beyond d10 and we're speculating 8-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe 51 perturbations vs 1? ...true, but ... using the EPS right now "seems" like eliding. That aside, there is a real trend that's been evolving to generate a heat departure period, roughly from the end of the month through the first week of July. We just don't know the extent of that. The last heat wave began in the runs with this sort of arguable ridge signal - just to keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 Man long range stuff really has July shaping up to be a humid, warm to at time hot month. WAR is flexing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man long range stuff really has July shaping up to be a humid, warm to at time hot month. WAR is flexing But we can't rely on a cool point and click forecast from 5 days out. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man long range stuff really has July shaping up to be a humid, warm to at time hot month. WAR is flexing So basically July-like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: So basically July-like? Yup. Seasons in seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 july is always supposed to be above normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 Looks like 11-15 day may be a bit AN. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 I don't see a WAR on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't see a WAR on the weeklies. People still use that product to make a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: People still use that product to make a forecast? What if it showed HHH? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: july is always supposed to be above normal? Need a refresher on global warming? Ha, it's been below normal in recent months, and no one expects it to be normal or below all the time. I do agree some above normal warm in mid-summer month is seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 I'll take this 70F/low dew rest of the Summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: I'll take this 70F/low dew rest of the Summer. Amen to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: What if it showed HHH? Or 5 feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 I guess ...if you buy it. The GEFs seem to be engineering an opposing look there, that is perhaps merely being obscured by having heights sort of on the high side everywhere. But, structurally every time a few cycles struggle to edge the pattern more WAR-dominated ... some run comes out like this 12z GFS/operational that locks a 600 dm height monolith out west ...almost like it strained to lift the barbell for two days, only to let fall by collapsing the flow in a single run back to west-is-best for heat. If that construct evolves no more summer... It's like early autumn from here on out. Can't say from a sensible impact point of view that would be all that bad. It also seems y'all go by the Euro camp and any derivatives almost entirely though - so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 What a heat dome developing out in the Plains later in the 11-15 day. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a heat dome developing out in the Plains later in the 11-15 day. Glad we don't live there. If we can ditch the nagging low heights overhead we'd be primed for a nice EML around 240 hours. Just in time for Winni to be slammed for the 4th week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 the eps looks hot to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 17 hours ago, CoastalWx said: What a heat dome developing out in the Plains later in the 11-15 day. Glad we don't live there. How come we never get heat domes? It seems like they always hit the midwest and southwest, maybe the southeast too. I want some dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: How come we never get heat domes? It seems like they always hit the midwest and southwest, maybe the southeast too. I want some dome. Ooh ooh, let me ... won't speak for Scott, but, there are two schools here. One is reality, the other is the model's en masse collective virtual reality. Ideally, we want the latter to be in the 100th percentile as far as depicting where the weather pattern will go and ultimately verify... But the present state of the technology in modeling is ... oh say the 90th percentile for D1 and 70 for Day 3 and 55 for Day 5 ...and on and so on down to meaningless D 9 Euro snow bomb coastal histrionics that we cherry pick data to support actually happening.... Why that is important is because... we do sometimes get 'heat domes' back east, but, the models will tend to bias toward what is called the 'Perennial North American Pattern' ...ever more so the deeper out in time is the view. By D11 - 15? heh... The models may error there, to put it nicely. But "if" an d when destiny has a flat ridge in the east (or a ridge event that is weak) ... there is little hope the models won't mute that out of existence. But, what is the PNAP pattern and why? It's there because of the summation of mountain torque over western N/America...with the ambient Pacific westerlies impinging upon the elevations of the Rockies (Canadian all the way down to Mexico). In the absence of a transient pattern forcing (which are short term modulations that enhance the flow structures and orientations) the rising motion over the Rockies will tend to bend to the left because of the Coriolis Force... that imparts a natural "bulge" in the planetary wave signature over the western part of the continent. In simple terms...even without a ridge in the west, and a trough in the east, any flow over the planet's surface that is forced up and over the N-S oriented mountain chain is going to curve up and then back down to the N than S... That really is the base-line perennial north-American pattern orientation. Sometimes (then) forces countermand that and you end up with troughing in the west and ridging in the east, but because of that base line planetary forcing, it's just easier for the pattern to support what you are observing - and, when/if ridges are supported by the pattern out west, they actually get a positive feed-back. It's like we have a disadvantage to jumping high genetically back east... We can do it, but we just have to work a bit harder. Which means that by proxy number ...our frequency of dunking the ball is going to be a little rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Are we still on track for the July 1-4th Sonora heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Are we still on track for the July 1-4th Sonora heatwave. ...sort of... Though it's too early to assess air mass origin, there is some semblance still that ridging could try to become more prevalent in the E here over the next week to ten days. It may end up being more of a 4th through the 8th sort of thing, too - "Weather" we just get standard departures associated with ridge anomalies, or something more because of having SW cooked troposphere in the mix is too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 the next 7 to 10 days in the bevy of guidance/mean therein strikes me as the old NW flow buffer deal on a planetary scale... Super hot Plain's heat would rip off fragments in that sort appeal ... from time to time these will pass through the Lakes then shunt/dive toward the M/A, sparing NE from what looks like a very hot continental pattern from a distance. The 06z GFS-para is the only run of any model that I can find that bucks this idea ...oh D11-15, but at that range the proverbial coin apes an Olympian gymnast. It almost seems like any heat at all up our way is by physical law always going to be a fleeting potential ...almost as planetary accident, because of the base-line/rest-state circulation structure of having the continental-topographical bulge over the Rockies cordillera. It seems the models (rightfully so) can't sustain ridging in the east (...unless of course it means f'ing up a good cold coastal in the winter. .. j/k). Seriously though, the CDC and CPC have been hammering positive PNA, and the pattern looks the part, despite the idea that the index is not correlated significantly enough over North America during JJA... I've always questioned that finding because of times like these... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 What a suck bag performance from the euro. Trough after trough instead of the ridging it showed. I'll take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: What a suck bag performance from the euro. Trough after trough instead of the ridging it showed. I'll take it. glad you brought it up though ...heh. i noticed that the GFS operational (so far - keep in mind ...nothing's verified yet) hammered the SE Canada NW flow looking all the while the Euro was threatening with headliner Continental heat... then, we get D 9 thru 13 inside of D 7 and we're seeing the Euro reload the trough repetitively, which establishes what the GFS said all along, it its own mean. ..ie. correction ... anyway, it's a recent detail in the late middle/extended range modeling behavior that's sort of under the radar... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 Man what a stretch coming up. Maybe a brief dew up later this week and then back to suits and ties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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