Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Yeah so as this is coming into better focus in the various runs it's becoming clear that this warm up in coming will probably limit to middling heat - One aspect I'm seeing that I don't like for bigger heat between detroit and boston's latitudes is that the geostrophically balanced mid-lvl winds just over top the ridge across southern and southeast Canada are too strong. Heat domes are fragile at our latitude ...you can't really run that kind of dynamics through there or invariably we'll be sending god knows what wedging S...be it BD's or outflow boundary or whatever the models can think of and the atmosphere will deliver to dent it back. That's not to say we won't pop the mid 90s on one of those days but this doesn't look like the same beast of a heat departure it did earlier on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Sunday and Monday look like 96-99 in normal torch spots. That has west wind over performance written all over it. Then low 90's with dews Tues. Cold front Wed pm and then high dews late week return into following weekend . Very warm pattern shaping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 GFS has a cool down from 6/20 with minor blocking in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 8 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: GFS has a cool down from 6/20 with minor blocking in Greenland. Maybe the op but for me I look at GEFS and they're not cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Good likelihood of a heatwave at BOS. They may seabreeze monday, but the ole 6pm bounce may launch them to 90. If so, that would be the earliest ever that we had 2 heatwaves. This, despite the crazy coolness of May and early June. Pretty cool (or hot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Actually looks like it may cool off in 11-15 day. Maybe wetness too, but decent trough on ensembles this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Good likelihood of a heatwave at BOS. They may seabreeze monday, but the ole 6pm bounce may launch them to 90. If so, that would be the earliest ever that we had 2 heatwaves. This, despite the crazy coolness of May and early June. Pretty cool (or hot). Fascinating statistical result... Not to roll eyes but ... heh, environmental modeling that is/was/are designed to predict the effects of global warming have been hammering for years that it's not just about the "warming", but in large part is about chaos and havoc ... basically a lack of stability in the system. Freak extremes actually in both direction is/was/are part of the characterizations. Maybe this is all just excessive variability related to that. interesting... Either way, two heat waves in a spring predominated by a cool wet complexion is an interesting story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fascinating statistical result... Not to roll eyes but ... heh, environmental modeling that is/was/are designed to predict the effects of global warming have been hammering for years that it's not just about the "warming", but in large part is about chaos and havoc ... basically a lack of stability in the system. Freak extremes actually in both direction is/was/are part of the characterizations. Maybe this is all just excessive variability related to that. interesting... Either way, two heat waves in a spring predominated by a cool wet complexion is an interesting story I just think we just the shaft with a cool, ULL regime (like the 00s). If we do get the heatwave, it may be by the skin of our teeth, as we barely tickled 90 for the third day back in May, and may barely do so again Monday. Could easily have been 89 and then nobody would be talking about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 For Tip, Scooter, Will, etc... for the year with the current earliest 2 heatwaves in BOS (I don't know what year that is), was the summer particularly hot? Were there multiple heatwaves beyond the first 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Glad we don't live there. Yeah, I think I'm going to take the under on 80 dews anyway. FWIW, the 30mb mean dew point is in the low 70s Tuesday. That seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, I think I'm going to take the under on 80 dews anyway. FWIW, the 30mb mean dew point is in the low 70s Tuesday. That seems reasonable. Either way time to hibernate for a few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Glad we don't live there. He'll be hiding inside with the a.c. on full blast anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 20 or 21 C 850s on this 0 Z NAM over much of central eastern mass Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Rain threats tomorrow look pretty isolated. Bring the heat, I'm ready, it's summer! I'll install Sunday morning if it looks oppressive beyond Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 TORCH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: TORCH!! Enjoy! With the persistent SW flow, dewpts will continue to slowly rise overnight, up to the upper 50s to lower 60s by around daybreak. The Bermuda high takes up residence along the mid Atlc and SE U.S. coast, setting up for our first day of hazy, hot and humid weather across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: TORCH!! No mention of the low 70s offset to follow Wed thru Friday? Not exactly deep summer yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: No mention of the low 70s offset to follow Wed thru Friday? Not exactly deep summer yet 14 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: No mention of the low 70s offset to follow Wed thru Friday? Not exactly deep summer yet Low 70's? Maybe in the Green Mtns. Rest of us it's 77-82 for 2 days before humidity returns . I certainly wouldn't be going by any point and click forecast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: 17 hours ago, powderfreak said: Glad we don't live there. This. What are people's thoughts on cloud cover this afternoon out in GC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Nice of Epstein to use a tainted gfs products for dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice of Epstein to use a tainted gfs products for dews. 102hr GFS op dews. I'm not sure even Theo Epstein would buy that. And he bought Carl Crawford for 7 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 21 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For Tip, Scooter, Will, etc... for the year with the current earliest 2 heatwaves in BOS (I don't know what year that is), was the summer particularly hot? Were there multiple heatwaves beyond the first 2? Scott or Will may have a better informed idea re those specifics than I. But I seem to recall a couple spring >> summers in the 2001 thru 2004 years that had some early heat. I recall April of ...I wanna say 2002, we had a freak warm month that year. Even when sea breezes came in they were ineffectual at really knocking things back the usual 35 F, and those air mass remained shallow, often erased overnight as a repeating characteristic of events. That summer did go on to being pretty warm - 4th of July was a scorcher. I get why you're asking but ... I'm not sure that's a useful conclusion to draw (assuming you are thinking repeating circumstances). If I'm being presumptuous than apologies but it could be exactly the same between April and June of 2002, as it just was now in 2017, and the summer would have equal probability in any direction. And just by experience I've seen that go either direction. I've seen early heat in May flip back to cold Junes that only mustered a recovery to normal in July... then a late heat wave at the tail end of August ...just before a mild Autumn that won't freeze... In other years, reverse all that. I think of Summers as being the "unmanned fire hose" season, where the teleconnectors have left it to spizzle and flop around. The planetary wave numbers become increasingly abundant but more importantly ... transient and weakly bounded. The flow becomes nebular. That is part and parcel in why some of these indexes lose their commodity between roughly mid May and the end of September.. It doesn't make the teleconnectors useless (imho) but, it makes their day-to-day dependability rarefied. It's probably really a matter of opening up thresholds though. If a PNA moves say, +1 or -1 SD in July, it doesn't mean nearly as much as if/when it moves that much in January... But move the former...I dunno 3 or 4 SDs in July, then we probably get something back from that particular index in terms of signaling pattern forcing. The trouble is, it almost never moves that much in July. Same holds true for the NAO ...EPO...etc, etc.. But I'm digressing... Point is, the 'unmanned fire hose' season means that we spray anomaly distributions all over the place with less obvious controls as to where/why they are coming from. So logically, it would "seem" harder to depend upon a warm say April, and think that means much for June. The earliest (per my experience) that the season to season "season" begins is roughly October... It seems that biases in October can sometimes weakly correlate in two month increments... Nov --> Jan...etc... but don't quote me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 GFS looks like a cooler pattern in the long range - out beyond day 8 or 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: GFS looks like a cooler pattern in the long range - out beyond day 8 or 9. Euro the opposite of that impression... Subtle but important distinction on this last Euro run is the tendency to pancake the latitude depth/extent of the deep layer trough set to replace the present ridge toward next weekend. That's mid levels... The surface read of the synoptic evolution rolls the region from the upper OV up through NE right back into a SW flow and even imparts +16 C 850 mb air. What's actually going on is that the mid week high pressure that intrudes from the N and truncates the heat merely pinches off the continental heat transport scenario presently in operation. Once the high normalizes out ... said air transport resumes. But by then, it contains some seriously rich DP air that tsunamis toward the weekend. I've seen this before in summers... For those that covet these interruptions of heat, NE is your destiny! It's basically that situation that sometimes sets up where the lower troposphere gets into "out of phase" with the mid levels... The mid looks sort of like the native perennial PNAP look, with flat western ridge, eastern trough coupled state, but, the lower troposphere may as well still be in a Bermuda round-house pattern.. We'll see how the runs modulate things going forward... I haven't seen the 00z GFS personally - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Did anyone notice that GFS tried to put a 600 dm ridge node in the mid riff of the country, with 850 mb temps approaching the mid 20s C as far N as the U.P. of Michigan ? Probably not ...because rightfully so, we should not be looking at a 384 hour anything that comes from modeling technology with much credulity ... still, I get a stinkin' suspicion this summer may bring the GW goods home to roost at some point - heh....er should we say 'roast' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 This weekend looks like poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: This weekend looks like poop Looks warm and humid with a few storms each afternoon and low 80's. Normal early summer wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Day 10 euro looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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