Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 I'm not sure I'm even seeing anything all that unusual this point moving forward anyway. There seems to be some lens tinting to see things more dire than they really are, coming from the various indicators and models and so forth. "Seasonally cool" has it's anomalous place and it doesn't mean earth shattering misery.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Third latest to 59f/15c ever, finally got there today. Hit about 65. It's been a brutal late spring. And no to snow. It's not even remarkable for yyt to report snow in June. There's been 5" events in June. How about snow for Halifax in June? Never happened here. Atleast as far as I know. Would probably take a volcanic eruption to get snow this late. What is the latest date for measurable snow in St. John's? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 8 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Not that I'm condoning this weather, but MWN does average 1" in June. Just last year they 3.7" in a system mid month, and 6.9" total. In 1988 they pulled off a daily June record of 5.1" on the 30th. My favorite memory of MWN as 12 yr old riding the cog leaving the base in shorts and a tee shirt in the 70s, halfway up a wicked cold front came in dropping the temp fast and winds roared, we were not allowed off and had to descent as last car for the day. I didn't care as it suddenly became a whipping snow squall. It was mid August. So cool for my first experience there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: My favorite memory of MWN as 12 yr old riding the cog leaving the base in shorts and a tee shirt in the 70s, halfway up a wicked cold front came in dropping the temp fast and winds roared, we were not allowed off and had to descent as last car for the day. I didn't care as it suddenly became a whipping snow squall. It was mid August. So cool for my first experience there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: You could say that. I already had my weather station with hand drawn maps in my bedroom with 2 wxradios. One on NYC and one on PVD I learned a lot from the marine forecasts especially Hotel buoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 I'm tending toward the GFS for the 96-120 hour synoptic evolution over the NE U.S.... The differences between it, and the Euro, are not huge, but enough so not to be quite as pessimistic. I still see the Euro as doing some magic numbering with the depth of the mid and upper level vortex in how it gets there by D5 ... a bias of the Euro on and after D4s that it never fully has gotten away from over recent upgrades imo. The GFS being approximately 10 DM shallower as well as slightly more progressive overall are a bit more consistent (looking) for what feeds into that trough amplitude, but also may be more climate friendly in the numbers. We'll see.. After which we'll see if the extended warm up that's been in the various signal sources for over a week has legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Is it me, or is this evolution to cold and misty/cloudy/rainy springs and early summers a trend of the last say 10 to maybe 15 years? In the 90s I remember June/July/August being HHH with no coastal cold storms and days of misery mist like we have now. I feel starting in 2005 is when all this malarkey began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm tending toward the GFS for the 96-120 hour synoptic evolution over the NE U.S.... The differences between it, and the Euro, are not huge, but enough so not to be quite as pessimistic. I still see the Euro as doing some magic numbering with the depth of the mid and upper level vortex in how it gets there by D5 ... a bias of the Euro on and after D4s that it never fully has gotten away from over recent upgrades imo. The GFS being approximately 10 DM shallower as well as slightly more progressive overall are a bit more consistent (looking) for what feeds into that trough amplitude, but also may be more climate friendly in the numbers. We'll see.. After which we'll see if the extended warm up that's been in the various signal sources for over a week has legs... Agreed...I'm starting the think the follow-up wave around hr 150 is the bigger system...That timeframe would also be coincident with very favorable teleconnections (climatological caveats aside). The subsequent significant warm-up also makes me think that's the one to watch. Maybe we get the baroclinic zone from the first system to drape off the southeast coast, and weak subtropical disturbance to get picked up by the mid latitude trough diving in from the GL. It's a long shot but both the euro and gfs show some of the ingredients are there for such a situation to play out... All things considered the players on the field are better aligned for a notable event with respect to the second system insofar as the first system remains of the nuisance variety... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 44 minutes ago, jbenedet said: "...Maybe we get the baroclinic zone from the first system to drape off the southeast coast, and weak subtropical disturbance to get picked up by the mid latitude trough diving in from the GL. ...". I've noticed this over the years. Sometimes the models will start lowering surface pressure around the SW Atlantic Basin ..a little too coincidental in time with the eruption of eastern middle latitude ridging between 100 and 60 W to think that's unrelated. It makes sense in a quick and dirty meteorological reasoning ... because heights rising then has a tendency to strengthen the easterlies off the SE coast, at the same time the U/A/ divergence at high altitudes gets established and that overall provides a favorable environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 And then the 12z gfs laughs at me by nearly doing exactly that only with the first wave around hr 96... Either one of those two waves next week is going to blow up and hit us pretty good is my guess at this point... As an aside SST anomalies off the SE coast has temps closer to normal for July... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: And then the 12z gfs laughs at me by nearly doing exactly that only with the first wave around hr 96... Either one of those two waves next week is going to blow up and hit us pretty good is my guess at this point... As an aside SST anomalies off the SE coast has temps closer to normal for July... hmm... I think less honestly, overall.. The 12z Euro was more than less jumping on my train about keeping the flow more progressive and thus related, it has also shaved some 2 to 4 decameters off the depth of that trough evolution - trend that I think cold happen again for one more cycle before it locks into its wheelhouse. At this point... keeps most inclemency packaged inside 30 hours as opposed to two full day's worth of pointing Atlantic dink and liberally relieving cryo-urin at us ...like the previous cycles. Actually, the 12z GFS may be the worst of the two models for that, ironically - Beyond that the Euro's really out to lunch in the late middle and extended imho - At 72 hours...it takes a weak to at best, lower middling trough in an amorphous relaxed geopotential gradient, up through Manitoba and suddenly out of now where ...buys straight dead balls on the same damn bias I've been hammering about seemingly manufacturing mechanics out of no where. It ends up carving out this giant deep layer winter trough. There is some amplitude (which could also be part of the same bias) smashing into the Pac coast day's 6/7 so some wave spacing kick-back okay...but that's just clearly way way overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 lol congrats PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 And here's the GGEM for that same time frame ...with it's over-the-top Sonoran release about to deliver ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 This may not belong here. I'm sorry if it doesn't. But in my time here, I've seen people asking if there would be any job openings at the NWS. I just saw this in the news. http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684905.pdf and this:http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/report-national-weather-service-meteorologists-‘fatigued’-and-‘demoralized’-by-understaffing/ar-BBBQ90c?OCID=ansmsnnews11 So maybe there are opportunities there after all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 3, 2017 Author Share Posted June 3, 2017 The change it is a coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: The change it is a coming Those freaks that like 45-50 and rain on here in summer . Their time is up . Summer begins Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Eh...not seeing summer the end of next week or the weekend yet, but it does look a little warmer. Gotta watch for BDs still too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2017 Author Share Posted June 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Eh...not seeing summer the end of next week or the weekend yet, but it does look a little warmer. Gotta watch for BDs still too. the times they are achangin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Eh...not seeing summer the end of next week or the weekend yet, but it does look a little warmer. Gotta watch for BDs still too. I don't know why you would root for 40s and rain during summer. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2017 Author Share Posted June 4, 2017 The pattern starts to change by the 15th and is complete by the 21st, open the pools then kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Begins June 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Begins June 10th Looks that way. I'm thinking it is a gradual warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks that way. I'm thinking it is a gradual warm up Just have to get past the next 3 days. Then it starts to warm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 It's possible record low max temps may be averted by temps just after midnight Tuesday and then fall during the day. In June. U40s at ORH by 3pm? Kind of bootleg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Eastern NE, especially towards the cape may want to keep an eye on the second wave that comes out of the Gulf around hr 96. Could be some tropical characteristics with it, particularly in terms of moisture. It's mostly ots right now--about 100 miles SE of BM on 6z GEFS--but Trough has been trending sharper on guidance and definitely seeing a trend bringing this Northwest with time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's possible record low max temps may be averted by temps just after midnight Tuesday and then fall during the day. In June. U40s at ORH by 3pm? Kind of bootleg. I see a lot of forecastswith highs in the 60's Mon- Wed in CT. It will be closer to 48-53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Yeah there's no question - the most objective interpretation of all information sources points toward a scenario that really should tack-out the misery meter ..particularly between Monday morning and Tuesday early afternoon. It would be a tough study to figure out how to even parameterize/quantify, but relative to the state of climatology? It could very well be the absolute limit in seasonal antithetic horror the atmosphere could achieve - no worse. The reason to advance that no worse notion is that anything that attempted assail upon our graceful senses any more cruelly, would...sort of recoup on the fascination and awe in matters... Like, I'd love to see it snow in June - never have. I saw a 2-meter graphic that drilled ORH to 43 F in daylight late tomorrow afternoon!! ...Unnnnfortunately for the 'wonder of it, the thermal profile only shows rising temperatures with altitude above that 1,000' of elevation until you get much higher... The state of present day climate really makes this whole in-coming ordeal border on creepy - like this can't happen? And it's been a repeating success story, too. We keep ending up here where/when the atmosphere engineers this sort of intense very target geographical assault on warmth. It's almost like we're caught up in some fluke, hemispheric scaled 'tuck' pattern.. Since April, perhaps an emergent property of all actions, on-going, in time and space? Like it's not a "pattern" per se - just a remarkably long anomaly of always flipping tails on a 50/50 coin. You live long enough, you'll see a coin flip 100 tails in a row (example). Only here, there's a negative node centered over SNE and its adjacent regions. In that node, come hell or high water, no matter what is happening over our atmospheric region of the hemisphere, there is a permanent negative. If can be 100 F for a high in that node, "SOME"thing will make sure it's 91 ... If it's going to be lousy weather? SOMEthing will make sure it pushes the envelope of what is plausible in Earth-bound physics for the month of June. We can't just get a couple of raining days at 60. good Christ. Anyway, I do think that 'relativity' really is getting stressed with this upcoming scenario. Like, I could see 43 F at 1,000 more likely in say, 1800 then 2017? It makes one wonder if this sort of thing set up back whence, what could it have done. 38 F back then ...mm weird cold summer events dapple the history books of those centuries for obvious reasons. Presently, this is a similar cold event during an era that doesn't have the same means to give it any additional momentum I suppose... Beyond this week, most are aware the pattern seems to want to change. It's been flagged for over a week... I remember 7 days ago the GFS 384 (highly likely to happen...) vision carved out a western trough/eastern ridge couplet... Since then, there have been more than a couple of runs, across the pantheon of Globals, that have even demo'ed Sonoran expulsion events (including the Euro's 00z from two nights ago...etc). The PNA teleconnector has supposedly entered the climate-based seasonal break-down in its correlation usefulness. However, I believe the tele's do bear some correlation provided the signals cross a kind of "threshold of coherence."... It's just that the return rate on those periods are rare enough not to depend on the index. If every member in the EOFs drills the PNA to negative 4 and holds it there for seven to ten days, it's not pointless to use that index. Though nothing like that is happening now, there is a PNA collapse from +2 to -2 before rebounding over the next two weeks coming from the CDC site. The CPC shows the index correction but not as extreme.. The former uses low-level wind flux anomalies, where as the CPC uses mid-level geopotential height anomalies in theirs... so it is what it is.. The NAO is relaxing the negative in both sources... It may all just precede a period of summer exhale where the gradient everywhere just sort of goes limp; the operational models going a too far with eastern height expanding. Or, it could mean a visceral pattern change toward a hotter summer, too... who knows. But the higher confidence take-away is that the era of unrelenting excuses to verify the coldest plausibility relative to all that is sane and decent may at last have a lease - finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Guidance is now unanimous. Big heat and humidity is coming next week. Looks like an extended period of deep summer.After these next 3 days of 40's and rain,, even the most whacked out cold, summers mongerers will appreciate what's coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 6z GFS and 6z NAM now hit eastern NE with a strong Nor' Easter. 989 mb in GOM on GFS and NAM would likely be even deeper if extrapolated from its strength/position at hr 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Guidance is now unanimous. Big heat and humidity is coming next week. Looks like an extended period of deep summer.After these next 3 days of 40's and rain,, even the most whacked out cold, summers mongerers will appreciate what's coming Won't be forever. The higher heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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