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Model Mehham


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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

When does it become swimmable in an average year? My pool is probably around 55F based on touch (have not used a thermometer yet).  All sparkling and ready to go other than the temp

His is heated. I haven't even uncovered mine. Thinking weekend of the 11th I start the start up process. 

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats to those who don't like hot summer weather. You got your wish this year. Hope you are enjoying it by swimming etc

Next two weeks looks pretty cool... Hoping it continues!! Honestly wish it would last all summer...

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Kevin is engaging in the text-book Psycho babble act of 'projecting' - what is really going on is what HE feels about this... It involves mapping undesirable feelings or emotions onto someone else, rather than admitting to or dealing with the unwanted feelings himself.  

... We get it... it sucks.  We only commiserate as we suffer along side of you.  There is no need to invent your straw-people targets of resentment because in reality...they don't exist in here.   

Satellite presently shows some striated bands of thinning and splitting along the back ~ one half of this I-95 corridor cloud swatch plaguing the MA to Maine.  This thing has truly been, in the minimum, giving an affectation of extraordinary resistance to change.  Two night's ago a stealthy BD either came through, or, up and formulated already SW of the area; behind which the air mass then preceded to bank up against the elevation tract that extends SSW-NNE west of the EC coastal plain.  

That air mass it transported and slammed up against the damming effectiveness of the higher elevations to the west is of a particularly pernicious variety - saturated, cold, dense heavy Labrodor sludge.  What's really missing in this air mass? Figuratively would be floating airborne ice-bergs!   Oh it's... relatively mild compared to say... a BD air mass in late March or April... But, I recall:  Dr. Colby and I once noted when I was a undergrad that saturated BD air masses are more resistant to mixing out than dry ones...well, case in point -  

Anyway, there is some chance that thinning cast will let some pall-dimmed sun in during the day, and perhaps realize some of those 70 F MOS numbers.  Tomorrow looks like the real house cleaner tho.  Dry air mass is forced down slope and really blast this schit out of here like a raid on a speak-easy.  And, with CAA lagged that flow and high sun is an utterly different sensible universe.  That's the one saving grace about our predicament of latitude and longitude on this Planet; by that geographical circumstance, we are favored to get abrupt corrections that eradicate unwanted plagues like this.  We'll see how it works but the NAM has been doing pretty well lately with it's RH fields and the verifying ceilings, and it really plummets the cloud level RH's to < 50 % toward dawn so we'll probably clear out above gossamer low fog/strata... A humid morning that glows pale yellow above of said mist.  By 10 am, everyone is under an insolation tsunamis with temps running toward 80 mid day.  

In the longer range, ...the GEFs as of yesterday were signaling some sort of paradigm shift but ... they did that three weeks ago too. We did get 5 days of warm departures, but it was like the very atmosphere its self just couldn't wait to get us right back to winter transposed over summer. Frustrating for warm enthusiasts, I know.      

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Yeah I always enjoy gouging my eyes out while looking at vis sat in these setups and seeing breaks moving W to E from the Great Lakes into VT and then hitting a brick wall near the CT River. Sludge is a good descriptor. It just sits and lingers in the CAD zones like a rancid methane smell after getting your septic tank pumped.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I always enjoy gouging my eyes out while looking at vis sat in these setups and seeing breaks moving W to E from the Great Lakes into VT and then hitting a brick wall near the CT River. Sludge is a good descriptor. It just sits and lingers in the CAD zones like a rancid methane smell after getting your septic tank pumped.

lmao

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I always enjoy gouging my eyes out while looking at vis sat in these setups and seeing breaks moving W to E from the Great Lakes into VT and then hitting a brick wall near the CT River. Sludge is a good descriptor. It just sits and lingers in the CAD zones like a rancid methane smell after getting your septic tank pumped.

I've seen this sort of air mass 'survive' multiple synoptic roll-overs, too -   seriously.  It's like Lake Cameroon puffing out C02 that clings to the ground..., the change/front came through but because it was ineffective at scouring the 'sludge' trapped east of the topography out west, and west of the virtual oceanic walled off boundary layer to the east, the front and new air more quite apropos ... glided/rippled right over the top and left it beneath.  

Yesterday kinda sorta did that...  The day's vis loop, one could clearly see it was like the atmospheric traffic was sliding over the top of a solid milky layer ...somewhere beneath which was a forsaken civility...

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Presently there is a north south oriented clearing line that is pretty sharp; mid and u/a/ layers discontinue along that line as it rapidly advances ENE out of eastern NY/PA.  The question is, does the schit underneath peel away with it - or does it strand behind.  

it will be an interestingly nerdy test watching over the next couple three hours.

NAM really is night to day tomorrow on this 12z run... Has Logan at 22 C at 980 mb with west wind, and zippo zero zilch cloud in a warm sector... so the 2-meter is probably about 82 F

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Presently there is a north south oriented clearing line that is pretty sharp; mid and u/a/ layers discontinue along that line as it rapidly advances ENE out of eastern NY/PA.  The question is, does the schit underneath peel away with it - or does it strand behind.  

it will be an interestingly nerdy test watching over the next couple three hours.

NAM really is night to day tomorrow on this 12z run... Has Logan at 22 C at 980 mb with west wind, and zippo zero zilch cloud in a warm sector... so the 2-meter is probably about 82 F

Hopefully clearing out the mid levels gives us enough insolation to try and mix this out. Unfortunately my dewpoint depression sits at 3F.

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51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully clearing out the mid levels gives us enough insolation to try and mix this out. Unfortunately my dewpoint depression sits at 3F.

 

you can see the peel off/exposure is indeed leaving the low layer behind. It roughly sets Springfield to Orange Mass... about that line... east of there is bright ceilings where the U/A peeled away... We just have that extra momentum requirement in this basin that exists east of the mountains and west of the Ocean - more evidence to really support the notion of a hybrid land/sea climate over this peninsula they call SNE.

if memory serves... Walt Drag once discussed a S at 22 kts rule at 850 for getting that molasses to move/mix out, but I'm not sure if he was talking about CAD or this sort of thing.

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14 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Olympic peninsula spring.  

Skies sort of brightened an hour ago, back to gray now.  This brings to 18 the number of cloudy days this month, tying May 2011, June 2009, and 2 Decembers for the most in any month during my 19+ years here.  (June 2009 gets the title - did it with one fewer day.)  Hope mentioning 2009 doesn't bring a repeat of that Ketchikan summer. 

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19 hours ago, Hazey said:

I really want to see YYT report snow in June. Let's do this...lol


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Third latest to 59f/15c ever, finally got there today.  Hit about 65.  It's been a brutal late spring.  And no to snow.  It's not even remarkable for yyt to report snow in June.  There's been 5" events in June.  How about snow for Halifax in June?  

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