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Model Mehham


Ginx snewx
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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

And that weak wave on Saturday--and that the mesos would key in on this sticking around--was a big concern I had going several days back. Looks like southern sections of the sub forum will be fighting mostly cloudy to overcast skies tomorrow afternoon. And the rest of us try to thread the needle, while still being well BN.

Then the best weather will be North on Sunday (ex Maine) as a backdoor pushes into SNE and the northern mid Atlantic and slows, allowing onshore flow off the cold Atlantic to rule the day. Looks nasty for coastal SNE, and especially the islands south of the cape.

Great going to newport ri tomorrow and sunday

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Tomorrow?  Good luck with that!  If you hit 60-65 it's a win.   Maybe you can squeeze out 68 as you pack everyone into the car to come home Sunday...

Lol. Don't show him this for tomorrow.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KORH

Might want to bring a sweatshirt to the games Saturday....

 

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Tomorrow?  Good luck with that!  If you hit 60-65 it's a win.   Maybe you can squeeze out 68 as you pack everyone into the car to come home Sunday...

Yes tomorrow. No one is squeezing into anything. We split up this year . Wife and 13 yr old daughter going to Cape tourney. 11yr old daughter and I going to premier tourney in Marlborough. I'm telling everyone near 70 with sun/ cloud mix. Similar to conditions over e lakes today 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes tomorrow. No one is squeezing into anything. We split up this year . Wife and 13 yr old daughter going to Cape tourney. 11yr old daughter and I going to premier tourney in Marlborough. I'm telling everyone near 70 with sun/ cloud mix. Similar to conditions over e lakes today 

Did 70-75 just become near 70°?

On another note, I feel bad you have to split your family up like that over a game.  That sounds tough.

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS keeps reloading the trough in the East right through mid June.

that's actually been going on for three or four years really ... There's been times when it was less so - and we've warmed.  but by and large we have been in a weird kind of n-stream domination for multiple years.  

the big super cold midwest then our feb and the summers that never quite got as hot as anywhere else were all part of that. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes tomorrow. No one is squeezing into anything. We split up this year . Wife and 13 yr old daughter going to Cape tourney. 11yr old daughter and I going to premier tourney in Marlborough. I'm telling everyone near 70 with sun/ cloud mix. Similar to conditions over e lakes today 

Wife FTW, Cape versus Marlborough, no brainer

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I think the NAM has been routinely too pessimistic for these two days, today and tomorrow.

It has NNW offshore component, under 700 mb RH at or < then 50% at times today, with 850 mbs around +7 C give or take one or two, not a month before the hottest sun of the year, and has been arguing for a surface temperature of only 13 to 15 C over eastern New England?!

That seems a pit excessive to me.  Those initial conditions would typically yield 72 or 74 or so for today.

However, as the satellite presently shows...pancake CU is spreading pretty liberally.. The mid and upper ceilings allows early morning insolution to come in strong; it's interesting how that works. For a couple hours you get a kind of 'split sounding', with warming in the decoupled cool low level destablizing at a shallow layer, then the inversion above, ..then free air. But the stuff below the inversion ... and the initial surface heating is collection moisture (to which we have in the abundance at llvs) and spreading that strata CU near the top.   What might happen, though is cyclic.  We may cloud over for couple three hours, then clear up again mid afternoon as that whole process is indicative of 'mixing out'.. I'm thinking that is possible because even the more pessimistic NAM has critical cloud height levels less than 70 %, with the wind staying 350 or so degrees.  Ie.,the sun has free reign of power.

Either way, the NAM really looks too pessimistic for Sunday... I think that ALB type of profile ends up pretty compressed E across the area... It may be only 13 C at T1 in Downtown B-town in that look. 

Monday there appears to be a backdoor .. the model may actually be right about that day.  The water is still hypothermic to any wayward air mass over the top and the Euro's nosing the PP bulged SW across the area is pretty good indication that our unique topographic circumstance which literally draws and strands that sort of cold Atlantic vomit onto the land would quite easily have a field day out of that look. 

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KFIT bounced to 63 already..  (talking relative to expectation there...).. meanwhile, the pancaking over southwest Worcester up to Orange and down to Springfiled and so forth has them capped at 55'ish. 

it's not totally pancake material there...appears there was some residual "spoke" coming around the western arc of that pesky ocean gyre that's slowly pulling east... contributing to a band. the pancake is around the edges.

haha, have i beating this horse enough with the nerd stick yet ?

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Most of SNE is socked in clouds and the clouds are thickening with time. It's not a nice start to the weekend in most areas down there, particularly near the shore by anyone's standards.

Kevin took that pic near ORH at a good time, to peddle his 70-75 narrative, and some of you are biting...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models were already looking more optimistic for sun starting yesterday. I don't think Kevin is getting his widespread 70s, but some will probably touch it. 

admittedly I didn't look at the 00z NAM soundings but the FRH grid was pretty lousy for eastern Mass and that's already set sail ... 

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