Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 If it were up to the GEFS teleconnectors alone we'd snow again in the elevations... (Scott says the EPS looks better just on the surface so those are probably not as dire appealing) Thankfully for those of the warm weather, spring and summer enthusiasm ilk, the teleconnectors are much more dicey now. Your preference might be at least partially sheltered by the fact that the teleconnector correlations tend to break down pretty dramatically post May 1 ... usually by June the correlations are vague; in fact, the CDC does not even bother to calculate the PNA c-coefficients against other mass-field/domain spaces during JJA. I think, though, that it probably still has a 'threshold'/component analysis there - but that's a deeper popcycle headache. So what that means is that the tele's are less dependable at this point in time moving forward, probably until Halloween sometime. I'm only bringing it up because the PNA was scheduled to bulge again to some +2 SD after the present expression of a -2 SD finished executing this heat dome over eastern America. That's an example right there where the teleconnector signaled a heat wave, one materialized, yet the tele was supposed to be less useful - so you see that it is not 0 either. Unless it was all just a ginormous coincidence. possible I suppose... Anyway, I haven't seen last night derivatives but as of yesterday ... +2 PNA was coupled up temporally with a -3 SD NAO ... tandem spanning a week. I'm like... Jesus H Christ another one?! but... again, perhaps this time those signals will indeed prove less meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 One thing I have also noticed about the GFS is that it hates warm-ups at mid latitude ...pretty much everywhere as a unilateral pervasive...albeit subtle bias. It's not hugely obvious; you almost have to be looking for it. But it seems to always be the first erode ridge rims back south, and the last to successfully move the 850 isotherm packings in a polarward direction, some 6 to as much as 24 hours at either end of warm interludes. interesting. heh.. but, the EPS being less dimming when the GEFs is slightly more seems to also fit with that in a holistic sense. it matters, because i need that f'n weekend not to piss - ahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 99-100 is possible today at CEF/ BDL.. maybe Merrimac Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 99-100 is possible today at CEF/ BDL.. maybe Merrimac Valley under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: under His dews might make it harder to warm up as much. To water or not to water the mulch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: His dews might make it harder to warm up as much. To water or not to water the mulch? No LESCO this year. 100% pure gypsy excrement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: under Mix to 700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mix to 700 lol...maybe even up to 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 we didn't make 90 by nine, which would have made the hundo more feasible/probable than doing it by ten... But, we did make it by ten at numerous sites... HFD, FIT...BOS ..etc. we'll see if we can add the 10 after ten to this puppy. i don't think it is ludicrous to considering 100 at one or two sites. MOS products are over 95 as it is in an error-prone atmosphere. with the winds averaging WNW even ...ooph. no clouds either, at a time of the year when MOS is more likely than not to bust cool when the sun is shinin' it may stop at 98.4 - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 We're not climbing midday like we did yesterday. Most sites have gained another 3-4F in the past 2hrs. I think we end up with mostly 95-97. 850s ended up overperforming yesterday. 00z RAOBs were warmer at H85 than what models have for them this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 actually, temps have stalled in the last hour... Really explosive rise since dawn suddenly capped at 10... Those sites that made 90 are still 90 .. Not that there's anything 'cool' about that number. interesting. you know I've seen this in the past many times too... You get this warm look in the models that goes ahead and verifies, but it's always the day before the day that was supposed to be the hottest that ends up being the hottest. not saying that's going to be the case this afternoon but - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Ah! Brian beat me too it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Pretty hard to get 100 without +20C 850 temps or higher...even in torch areas....though we do have the advantage of not quite being at 100% leaf-out yet. Stuff like oaks and such are still lagging a bit even in lower elevations...so that could help add a degree or two to the temps. But still, looking at MLs, even being generous, I'd def take the under on 100, even for BDL....though I've always learned don't count that site out for anything since it tends to run warm anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 BDL also started the day with a 49 dew point yesterday, 64 today. OKX PWAT went up from 0.87" to 1.08", so the air mass isn't quite a dry and responsive to heating as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTFarmer Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: 99-100 is possible today at CEF/ BDL.. maybe Merrimac Valley Hit 98.4 on my PWS at 11:41am. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KCTEASTH34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty hard to get 100 without +20C 850 temps or higher...even in torch areas....though we do have the advantage of not quite being at 100% leaf-out yet. Stuff like oaks and such are still lagging a bit even in lower elevations...so that could help add a degree or two to the temps. But still, looking at MLs, even being generous, I'd def take the under on 100, even for BDL....though I've always learned don't count that site out for anything since it tends to run warm anyways. They have touched 99 in May, 1996 and 2010. Not as crazy as the 96 on 4/19/76, IMO. (Or CAR's 96 on 5/22/77) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 1 hour ago, CTFarmer said: Hit 98.4 on my PWS at 11:41am. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KCTEASTH34 Nice!! And that's on the farm too. Great stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 89.9 at mi casa. Douche cirrus in the southern sky over S NH will probably keep me from 90.0+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTFarmer Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice!! And that's on the farm too. Great stuff Actually, this is the home base back yard with 50/50 shade/sun where I mounted the PWS sensors (for balanced sampling). In the fields, I'm certain it is brutal. Just hit 99 even. Breeze has kicked-up a little, that helps make it tolerable. My day job is in State House Square in downtown Hartford, I'll figure out just how hot is it when I walk out the lobby in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 temp surged 4.5 at BDL and FIT over the last hour though - it's 95 at those locations with a solid 2 hours of superb heating potential... We may have capped and start doing the bouncing drill. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: 89.9 at mi casa. Douche cirrus in the southern sky over S NH will probably keep me from 90.0+ 90.2F...defeated the evil cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 18, 2017 Author Share Posted May 18, 2017 14 hours ago, dendrite said: Sweet thanks. GYX was 18.6C tonight. We have a shot to beat that 19.7C tomorrow. 850.00, 16.60 well short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 18, 2017 Author Share Posted May 18, 2017 Looking ahead man that looks pretty awesome for a bunch of 65-70 over 50 days, we Chamber til the break of dawn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 850.00, 16.60 well short It'll be warmer at 00z...but 19.7C looks tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It'll be warmer at 00z...but 19.7C looks tough. Yeah...I was looking more toward 00z. Yesterday really overperformed over guidance from the previous couple of days. Today probably comes in as progged with 18C or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 18, 2017 Author Share Posted May 18, 2017 euro says rooster crows Mem day weekend, drastic difference form American version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: euro says rooster crows Mem day weekend, drastic difference form American version Let's coc k out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Have any SNE climo sites ever hit 100F in May? That April 1976 temp Tamarack posted is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 BOS hit at least 95. Got some high clouds but we're clear again bu I suspect 95 is the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 Back up to 95 after dropping to 91 in the cloud debris. I have a stake in 96 because my daughter said on her way out the door this morning-92 today-hot! I retorted that 96 is more likely given the high launching pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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