ineedsnow Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Flooding issues on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Flooding issues on the gfs Euro was rather slow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Listen to the mets on here and not some phantom gfs run It's not a phantom operational run. The ensembles continue to show a brief 1-3 day warm up around the 20th followed by a return to normal or slightly below normal. It's all a matter of how far East the building trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Yeah the idea of coastal system affecting the weekend is gathering confidence... Multiple operational and ensemble member therein are supportive with the western end of the negative height anomaly first bifurcating to the N of the GL, then descending toward upper M/A.. classic multi-day behavior under westerly NAO blocking actually ... That Euro is certainly the most entertaining ...being unwilling to completely shut the book on winter suggestion (again..) - seemed to get away from that (at last) for a couple days, now comes back with it. Possible - can we get a synoptic snow later than 1977. Stay tuned! Otherwise, the theme for the week has changed imo... Thursday and Friday (light winds away from the coast + low deep layer RH + 850 mb temperatures above 0 C) = 65 to 72 F regardless of machine numbers - which tend to come in dimmed over reality in that sort of synoptic set up... Pretty clear difference compared to the 10 day stint scenario that was feared. Then the coastal ...after which ..I could see things going warmer, but I don't know where "massive" came in... plus, the subjectivity of that term is useless, too. Firstly, the idea of the pattern changing ~ the 20th is still in tact. The impetus there is "approximately" ... This 'art' of distant forecasting has never been about sticking with an exact dates anyway - that's always been, going back years of social weather-related media, an utter base-less invention/requirement by those looking from the outside, into the realm of what it takes to construct these outlooks, who don't have a f'n clue and therefore shouldn't even be around the establishment of standards ... Secondly, it's plausible it's all moot anyway...? If Friday gets to 72, what's left in that discussion anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah the idea of coastal system affecting the weekend is gathering confidence... Multiple operational and ensemble member therein are supportive with the western end of the negative height anomaly first bifurcating to the N of the GL, then descending toward upper M/A.. classic multi-day behavior under westerly NAO blocking actually ... That Euro is certainly the most entertaining ...being unwilling to completely shut the book on winter suggestion (again..) - seemed to get away from that (at last) for a couple days, now comes back with it. Possible - can we get a synoptic snow later than 1977. Stay tuned! Otherwise, the theme for the week has changed imo... Thursday and Friday (light winds away from the coast + low deep layer RH + 850 mb temperatures above 0 C) = 65 to 72 F regardless of machine numbers - which tend to come in dimmed over reality in that sort of synoptic set up... Pretty clear difference compared to the 10 day stint scenario that was feared. Then the coastal ...after which ..I could see things going warmer, but I don't know where "massive" came in... plus, the subjectivity of that term is useless, too. Firstly, the idea of the pattern changing ~ the 20th is still in tact. The impetus there is "approximately" ... This 'art' of distant forecasting has never been about sticking with an exact dates anyway - that's always been, going back years of social weather-related media, an utter base-less invention/requirement by those looking from the outside, into the realm of what it takes to construct these outlooks, who don't have a f'n clue and therefore shouldn't even be around the establishment of standards ... Secondly, it's plausible it's all moot anyway...? If Friday gets to 72, what's left in that discussion anyway? on the bolded, i'll give you a hint. the user names begins with "damage", and ends with "tolland" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 GFS SOS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS SOS! That's the second solution in a row the GFS has shown a slow moving soaker for the Mid Atlantic up thru New England. Hopefully the Euro and UKMET continue to remain on board. The UKIE trended towards the EPS ensembles last night which is a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: That's the second solution in a row the GFS has shown a slow moving soaker for the Mid Atlantic up thru New England. Hopefully the Euro and UKMET continue to remain on board. The UKIE trended towards the EPS ensembles last night which is a great sign. Canadian is pretty wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Happy Mother's day to all of the moms. Enjoy your nor'eastah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Mothers day cookout may be turning into takeout here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 We're almost due for a Kevin post where he concedes and congratulates everyone for getting the miserable weather that he thinks we all supposedly want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: We're almost due for a Kevin post where he concedes and congratulates everyone for getting the miserable weather that he thinks we all supposedly want. Well it looks like Mother's Day is ruined....congrats to everyone who wanted this and was rooting it on in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it looks like Mother's Day is ruined....congrats to everyone who wanted this and was rooting it on in the models. It's like you stole that quote right out of his mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Gfs all alone. Can be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 All alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All alone? Lmao he's in the denial stage. Hopefully someway we salvage mothers day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All alone? Maybe he didn't look at the Euro, Ukie, or Canadian and only saw the Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe he didn't look at the Euro, Ukie, or Canadian and only saw the Nogaps. I'll give him some benefit and say he's just busting chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 It's not going to be that much rain, relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 I wonder if we can pull off highs close to 40F on Mother's Day if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Euro might give MWN like 2-3 feet of snow out of that storm, lol. Pow day on Tuckerman's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 5/14 low max records CON 47F (1948) MHT 46F (2006) PWM 46F (1931) BOS 47F (1931*) ORH 46F (2006*) BDL 50F (1948*) PVD 47F (1948) BTV 51F (1973*) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Now that is a wheel of brown misfortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 I'm guessing there's some high terrain snow in WNE/E NY Sun night based on the crappy public euro maps? That ULL means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Now that is a wheel of brown misfortune. Just spins for days as it rots to our south and southeast. That's not far from some decent flakeage on Monday morning even over SNE interior...prob won't play out like that, but that is a really deep ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 That might even be a Stowe Strangler for a time around 132-138 hours (Sunday night)...extremely heavy QPF with basically isothermal column around freezing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Yeah it gets awfully close in Berks. Kind of a race from top down cooling from s/w diving in and strong WAA moving in at like 850. Maybe a narrow area in deformation zone may get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 I like how between 168 and 192 hours, the vortex axis or rotation moves 0 latitude and longitude ...while simultaneously the ridge axis that starts out over the G. Lakes move E to roughly NYS... It pulls that off by filling the vortex rather than moving it away. Talks about hell-bent to keep conditions specifically schitty - it's found a way to do so without violating the principles of Atmospheric physics - haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Only the Euro could do this ... Raise heights for 24 consecutive hours while crappening the weather the whole way - wow. Man, this spring is just got a f'n x on it's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe he didn't look at the Euro, Ukie, or Canadian and only saw the Nogaps. The NAVGEM is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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