Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: UGH on the Euro ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Growing evidence of way better wx 5/20 and beyond give or take a few days. I don't even bother with expectations of mice wx here before mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2017 Author Share Posted May 7, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I don't even bother with expectations of mice wx here before mid June. seeds and raisins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 according to various ptype sources there must be cat-paws and grapple dappled upon the terrain of upstate NY ...if not fatties thrown in there... --------------------------- I was looking at NWS' four major climate results for the fist week of the month and they're all over the place. But if the numbers were added up together/4 you sort of bootleg the 'expected average' result so far using the aggregate. It will be interesting to revisit these numbers a week from now and see where they stand. Here's my hypothesis (destined not to transpire for the sole reason that I advanced it...) ...May ends up above average come June 1. The reason I suggest this is that this cold pattern seems to want to behave like all others since we passed through the "climate warming event horizon"; an uneventful silent circumstance, some decades ago, where we seem to have lost the ability to actually sustain cold years. Since then, ...it gets cold in spikes that are comparatively shorter in duration as the primary means to offset a systemically persistent warming. As the old addage goes... climate doesn't dictate the dailies and that is true... However, that statement sort of belies the truth that the dailies should eventually probablistically favor/ reflect the changing climate ... Digressions aside, my thinking is that as soon as we sans the blocking tendencies (and we don't even have to lose that entirely at this time of year...just remove the excessive negative SD and the block influence decays) the lower troposphere will bounce back pretty quickly. I still see that as happening around the 20th ... and then if we had ten straight days to close out the month that for all we know could even be a mass-field sort of seesaw scenario, we could cook and bring it back over the top. I'm suspicious we could clad bounce above normal in that time span, too. There are indications/subtleties in the operational runs and ensemble to put up a ridge in the east, and given to residence for cooling patterns ...we should term this puppy by then anyway, and then the system compensates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 huge mass discontinuity on this 12z run... After a coastal the whole conus steeps in late spring/early summer type heat. I also thing that there's fair chance that coastal is overdone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: huge mass discontinuity on this 12z run... After a coastal the whole conus steeps in late spring/early summer type heat. I also thing that there's fair chance that coastal is overdone - Pretty good ensemble support for it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Pretty good ensemble support for it though oh i think it's likely evolve but that 12z oper. ...i'm just wondering if that tendency to over-evolve trough over the east isn't rearing it's head here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: oh i think it's likely evolve but that 12z oper. ...i'm just wondering if that tendency to over-evolve trough over the east isn't rearing it's head here. Yeah probably overdone but either way another period of crap wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 this is in all a very typical behavior for troughs that end up pinned beneath west-based NAOs... they get "squished" and elongate... bifurcating into smaller nodes... the western one then subsumes a pacific S/W/ passing underneath and viola! ...coastal. yeah, i've seen nor'easters during every month of the year...it's just at matter of going from 1008 mb to 989 in 12 hours, which is technically like bombogen rates...doing so with comparatively weaker dynamics/sickly mid spring baroclinic normalization - okay... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: huge mass discontinuity on this 12z run... After a coastal the whole conus steeps in late spring/early summer type heat. I also thing that there's fair chance that coastal is overdone - I'm also noticing a subtle trend to weaken the influence of that ULL over the Great Lakes and have that energy phase in sooner. I'm thinking this system has a better chance of maturing much earlier near the Ohio river valley and cutting off long before it gets here, and sliding ENE kinda like a further southeast/weaker version of the storm we just experienced...But that also means we stay on the cold side of this one, and suffer through one or two cold and wet days of nasty weather. The current depiction seems too "winter-esque" to me. I think the May sun is going to do its work in eroding that block and allowing more UL height rises as the shortwave traverses the plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 That'll be one heck of a freeze in the upper midwest tonight...lots of upper 10s and 20s. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: That'll be one heck of a freeze in the upper midwest tonight...lots of upper 10s and 20s. Glad we don't live there. Core of the cold looks to pass over eastern WI and the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 10 hours ago, nzucker said: Core of the cold looks to pass over eastern WI and the UP of Michigan. 19F at IMT this morning. Congrats to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 subtle point of contention but .. it'll be interesting (for me) to see how this 12z Euro run charts out .. the last couple of cycles of the Euro really want to herald the end of the cold plague by D6..7 or so. the entire circulation medium breaks toward bulging eastern rising heights.. yet the GFS wants no part of it. in fact this 12z run has the worst of the cold now centered at 170 or so hours, with a deep trough anomaly still pinned in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 I think we know which one is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I think we know which one is wrong. Probably the euro op. 20th or bust. It does not mean every day will suck..but INMO..that's when pattern shows signs of changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 More and more support for an OTS suppressed storm for the weekend. Good to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Good thing the trough axis is to our West this week, days and days of 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 The 12z EPS mean looks mainly below normal temperature wise throughout the period. Even though a ridge does try to move East around the 20th it gets mostly shunted Southwest of NYC with a backdoor moving in for places East of the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: subtle point of contention but .. it'll be interesting (for me) to see how this 12z Euro run charts out .. the last couple of cycles of the Euro really want to herald the end of the cold plague by D6..7 or so. the entire circulation medium breaks toward bulging eastern rising heights.. yet the GFS wants no part of it. in fact this 12z run has the worst of the cold now centered at 170 or so hours, with a deep trough anomaly still pinned in place. Those nice 70s-80s for 5/20 and beyond now are barely topping 70 here, and not until the 22rd. Hope this isn't going to be like the endlessly retreating day 10 snowstorms during a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z EPS mean looks mainly below normal temperature wise throughout the period. Even though a ridge does try to move East around the 20th it gets mostly shunted Southwest of NYC with a backdoor moving in for places East of the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Those nice 70s-80s for 5/20 and beyond now are barely topping 70 here, and not until the 22rd. Hope this isn't going to be like the endlessly retreating day 10 snowstorms during a bad winter. What are you looking over that goes out to the 20th ? You responded to a comment I made about 7 days from now - the 20th is 12 days away; half of month for all intents - I was referring to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 I may never have to install . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Every single piece of long range guidance points to a massive warm period from the 20th on. This month very well may still come in AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ignore the guidance at your own peril. That massive warmup, if it does come looks transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Ignore the guidance at your own peril. That massive warmup, if it does come looks transient. Yeah, I remember hearing a tv met say that the end of May should trend warmer, followed by going back to near normal for early June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 8 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Ignore the guidance at your own peril. That massive warmup, if it does come looks transient. Listen to the mets on here and not some phantom gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 6z gfs out to 117 looks like its going to have a pretty good storm now.. Had a bit of frost on the car this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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