Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I thought/saw that gyre as splitting up by D8 with part going west, and east, leaving us with a chance for a sneaky gem buried in there... After it there is another cold shot but...my guess is that modulates a bit less in the days to come. heh we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I have to admit ... no idea what is meant by a "wheel of rhea" Rhea is a type bird? but ...other than that... interesting. anywho, I saw improvements over night in the longevity and depth of the trough/cut-off and attending cold... May be too early to establish as real trends, but ...let's keep in mind that the whole bag is really stressing climo in order to be "that bad" so... some backing off that scale and degree of horror could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: "Wheel of 'rhea" is a great name for that ULL, lol. That thing is just putrid...we'd probably love it if it were 2 months ago though. this is the setup where Ginxy would be pantless for half the month tracking ULL snows and WINDEX events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: this is the setup where Ginxy would be pantless for half the month tracking ULL snows and WINDEX events. Probably an IVT or two thrown in there to get Ray excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have to admit ... no idea what is meant by a "wheel of rhea" Rhea is a type bird? but ...other than that... interesting. anywho, I saw improvements over night in the longevity and depth of the trough/cut-off and attending cold... May be too early to establish as real trends, but ...let's keep in mind that the whole bag is really stressing climo in order to be "that bad" so... some backing off that scale and degree of horror could work. You can't guess? Anyways euro continues the mess through day 10. Maybe a couple of days where it's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can't guess? Anyways euro continues the mess through day 10. Maybe a couple of days where it's ok. dude I'm tryin' - don't say anything ...I wanna figure this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: dude I'm tryin' - don't say anything ...I wanna figure this out When you're sitting in a chevy and you're feeling kind of heavy........... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 well... I was thinking about Hershey but I wasn't sure how I was supposed to make the leap from Rhea to that - I suppose just looking at the weather charts should have lent a clue, huh - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... I was thinking about Hershey but I wasn't sure how I was supposed to make the leap from Rhea to that - I suppose just looking at the weather charts should have lent a clue, huh - lol It's the kind of number 2 movement you do not want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I don't know what the GFS' deal is. That model really tries one's ability to think that thing isn't deliberately engineered to show the ****tiest solution imaginable relative to consensus. I noticed that all goddamn winter and it's doing it now the other direction heading into summer. I don't know how NCEP pulled that off... If you want it to snow, that model always shows the least. If you want it to be warm, it's always the coldest. It's like no matter what, it's always modeling the opposite of what you want - period. Somewhere in there there's a f'n afterthought of atmospheric dynamics. Jeezus H - What does what you want have to do with atmospheric dynamics?! Yet, NCEP apparently thinks that so long as they put out something disappointing they score better with the product spectrum?? Here's my theory: ...they have Russian spies embedded in the forums of the weather world, ...pinging back the tenor of the consensus desire to NCEP, and they have all these coefficient butt-bang variables sprinkled about their Navier-Stokes thermal and fluid dynamical equations - and it's just a matter of setting the bang and running the models. Then I realized wait... those are 240 through 350 hour model charts - heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: When you're sitting in a chevy and you're feeling kind of heavy........... Little deuce coupe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 heh, this 18z run's a lot different in the late middle/extended ranges... Yar, it gets chilly D3.5 through 7 but after that, the previous look is shattered significantly ... with a few days actually quite passable. Could it be? the dodging of the bullet - Too early to tell ..but, the run even tries to throw up the season's first heat dome in the nation's midriff states out there around 9+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Tele's from the GEF camp actually signal SOMEthing different sets in by the 20th, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Yup..the last 10-14 days of the month we quickly torch. the end is clearly in sight. No problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Little deuce coupe? Tip, rhea as in diarrhea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 This is a warm look get em in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Week 3 wasn't that warm verbatim. Gotta watch those height anomalies north of us. Sometimes that can mean sneaky HP. My guess is we are in this mess until the 20tj or so. Doesn't mean every day sucks...hell could be a few downslope dandies in there. But the overall pattern of troughing in the east looks to hold through mid month at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 So it this May, May of 2005's colder, shorter (duration) brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Tele's from the GEF camp actually signal SOMEthing different sets in by the 20th, too - Tip, tried to private message you about a guy who is a big Disc Golf player here in CT. I told him I knew a guy on my weather forum who loves Disc Golf! But it says you can't receive PM'S ?? If you're interested in contacting this guy about the game, let me know. And maybe I can give you his info, if you're interested. WinterWolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Dews today. We wipe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dews today. We wipe more Have you turned on your window units? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Have you turned on your window units? Did you get snow into the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 11 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Tip, tried to private message you about a guy who is a big Disc Golf player here in CT. I told him I knew a guy on my weather forum who loves Disc Golf! But it says you can't receive PM'S ?? If you're interested in contacting this guy about the game, let me know. And maybe I can give you his info, if you're interested. WinterWolf. Not sure on the PM thing... I don't normally use that feature in recent years on this forum.. There may have been tech changes and so forth with the interface that I am unfamiliar. It's really about inheriting previous user-ship into a completely different web/social media outlet, to which I am apart. So...not sure what to tell you on the PM. Thanks on the DG circuitry but...honestly, why? I mean... I have a circle of bros and we play from time to time but we're all 30s and 40s year-olds with families and lives at this point; we don't get out that often anymore, and it's not really devoted hobby really. It's a fun activity/sport, sure. More power to DGers in CT though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Seems the recent trends in guidance is to reduce the magnitude of the cold anomaly, both in duration and extent. Also, the structure/synoptic evolution of the flow has changed, too. It's more elongated and both the Euro and GFS now keeping the core heights N of our latitude, albeit narrowly - still quite a bit different than taking episodic retrograde mid and upper level -2 or -3 SD height cores underneath Long Island ... for the snow part of those previous "hints" we needed that to work out. My hat-tipped thinking is that by the 20th of May we may blast into summer - or at least...sans these "blue contoured" thickness plumes ...probably until next October. The usual caveats of the extended apply ... but beyond the D5-7 range, the GFS with a huge 570 dm thickness air mass sprawling the eastern half of the conus clear to the 40th parallel and knocking on the door of New Englad. -PNAP too with eastern ridging. Euro doesn't go out that far for the freebie disadvantaged poor class of lowly dreamy-eyed provincials but... knowing how things typically work you can tell it's on the verge of something similar. Tele's really should be about useless given 'normalcy' by mid May ...so we may be on our own with assessing longer term pattern tendencies - Fwiw, presently the GEFs derivatives are flat lining the PNA within the next couple few days...and the NAO domain is too by the end of this next week... So it the "pattern" change suggested above could be over-compensating ... Bottom line, there's hope that we won't have to trash the whole month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT heh.... just so long as 'as we thought' includes the high confidence chillier than normal annoying not install weather that will set in for most of this week, first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 actually...right out through D10 or 12, too... I almost wonder if this will set up like it did ...shoot I want to say 2011, where I distinctly recall fighting cool like verification and tendencies that spring. Then, this big heat plume surged N-NE out of the SW/MV into the OV and wrapped around the N side of a newly burgeoning SE ridge, ...came E across NYS and the Euro operational had like 7 contours of thickness packed and oriented north to south along a warm boundary at 12z... By later that same afternoon, dawned mid 50s had soared to near 90 with DP too - it was like the winter passed into summer through a diurnal doorway. I could see this doing something similar where we are plague with cold anomalies... and then in two days its gone ... somewhere between the 15th and 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Week 3 wasn't that warm verbatim. Gotta watch those height anomalies north of us. Sometimes that can mean sneaky HP. My guess is we are in this mess until the 20tj or so. Doesn't mean every day sucks...hell could be a few downslope dandies in there. But the overall pattern of troughing in the east looks to hold through mid month at least. oh ...didn't see this post. yup! ...I just got done s'plainin' the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure on the PM thing... I don't normally use that feature in recent years on this forum.. There may have been tech changes and so forth with the interface that I am unfamiliar. It's really about inheriting previous user-ship into a completely different web/social media outlet, to which I am apart. So...not sure what to tell you on the PM. Thanks on the DG circuitry but...honestly, why? I mean... I have a circle of bros and we play from time to time but we're all 30s and 40s year-olds with families and lives at this point; we don't get out that often anymore, and it's not really devoted hobby really. It's a fun activity/sport, sure. More power to DGers in CT though! Ok that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 6, 2017 Author Share Posted May 6, 2017 UGH on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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