Model Mehham

[Typhoon Tip]

yup, about one tick away from history there - all fields and considerations

[Typhoon Tip]

I tell one thing about the Euro run that falters just shy of astounding...

The lowest heights anywhere over our quatra-hemispheric scope are between the Delmarva and Cape Cod.  

The only reason why that is not at the level of astounding is because it's day 10.   But jesus I'm willing to cram it on my own hatred for this putrescent f-up weather if that really sets up that way.  You'd have to be brain dead not to appreciate that look.  wow.

The model is flat out trying to engineer a blue bomb in May and it's not the only model doing this either.  GGEM gets us there by D7 (almost) and the GFS just needs to cool the column 2 or 3 ...

[ma blizzard]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tell one thing about the Euro run that falters just shy of astounding...

The lowest heights anywhere over our quatra-hemispheric scope are between the Delmarva and Cape Cod.  

The only reason why that is not at the level of astounding is because it's day 10.   But jesus I'm willing to cram it on my own hatred for this putrescent f-up weather if that really sets up that way.  You'd have to be brain dead not to appreciate that look.  wow.

The model is flat out trying to engineer a blue bomb in May and it's not the only model doing this either.  GGEM gets us there by D7 (almost) and the GFS just needs to cool the column 2 or 3 ...

just in time for the 40th anniversary 

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Crap, we just can't get through a spring without the pinwheel of doom. May is going to suck!

lol. Don't think I've heard that one.

I would actually be pretty stoked if I drove up to the lake Memorial Day weekend and had some of the white stuff hitting my face while there.  

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

I don't think I've had a BN May since 2007 and I think that was barely BN. We've had some nice ones recently.

Here it was 2008, 2.4° below my avg.  Since then a couple years were perhaps half a degree BN while most were significantly AN and some were 4+ AN.  After seeing 70+ north of Moosehead both Fri and Sat (with Fri morning bottoming about 50), I figured an adjustment was coming.  Fortunately for potential flood threat, those warm days took most of the snow out of the woods except in extreme NW Maine.

[ORH_wxman]

It will probably just end up as a turd swirling in the toilet bowl for a week straight like 2005 instead of a May snow event...but it's pretty interesting to see anyway out in clown range. Pretty close to historic.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha! yeah...i was "stinkin" that too - more likely that the models are overdoing things at this sort of time range.  

At least, that's the course of least regret. 

Having said that, that complexion from the GEFs teleconnector prognostics is eye-popping. It may not help determinism per se, buuut ... if one wanted to get a rare snow in may, THAT would be the layout of choice. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Posted in the banter thread by accident

From Fisher

Cold pool nearby/overhead next week is definitely impressive. Still feel like peaks at the least will see snowflakes.

[powderfreak]

56 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Posted in the banter thread by accident

From Fisher

Cold pool nearby/overhead next week is definitely impressive. Still feel like peaks at the least will see snowflakes.

If those progs are close the peaks definitely will see flakes...even if just transient orographic showers.  Now if we can get those cut off lows a bit further east then larger scale more organized upslope precip becomes possible.

[ineedsnow]

Damn just saw the 12z euro thats snow for higher up... Maybe a few flakes for valley areas?

[Damage In Tolland]

Well..let's do.. Let's call for and prepare for a historic late season snow event. Can envision widespread grid problems with leafed out trees.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well..let's do.. Let's call for and prepare for a historic late season snow event. Can envision widespread grid problems with leafed out trees.

Nah. Trough axis west. Just cool with dews.

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

If those progs are close the peaks definitely will see flakes...even if just transient orographic showers.  Now if we can get those cut off lows a bit further east then larger scale more organized upslope precip becomes possible.

I had some accums for MWN even midweek, let alone late in the week.

[OceanStWx]

GFS and Euro 00z runs = 

I mean it's a pretty ugly look. You can put a little lipstick on the pig and say that it probably won't rain as much under the upper low as the models say it will, but otherwise the chamber is not happy.

[JC-CT]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

GFS and Euro 00z runs = 

I mean it's a pretty ugly look. You can put a little lipstick on the pig and say that it probably won't rain as much under the upper low as the models say it will, but otherwise the chamber is not happy.

Looks fck ii ng awful

[Damage In Tolland]

May 2005 is here

[ORH_wxman]

Might as well make sure the ULL deepens as much as possible to give some snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might as well make sure the ULL deepens as much as possible to give some snow.

The "panache" for that faded some on this cycle ...unfortunately. 

The look was better and closer to recouping some entertainment value out of this dreaded ensuing pattern, from the runs during the day yesterday. 

But, we know that this is/was probably more likely anyway.  It could come back..  

Some part of me wonders if we should have suspected a blocking May was on the way... I mean, we butt-sored above normals DJF, then went negative about the time people want things to go the other direction in March... That creepy persistence and success of the weather in delivering us the least desired result, relative to all tastes at all times, seemingly required the pattern during May tune up butts too -

Heh.  Truth be told it's been an acceptable spring by NE standards/climo.  We had three days of surreal perfection over Easter, and enough 60 F type mostly sunny afternoons sprinkled through the weeks to challenge justification for complaints.  It's just also a fact of climate that every so many years ...we cut off a seemingly interminable cold gyres like that. 

I've seen these modeled and fail too, though... I mean I'm commiserating as though it's already happened. Either way, it seems there's a consensus: either go historic and snow so we can be in awe, or... be at least menially acceptable... but don't do what it is doing right now as we type, with 46 F mist.  I think out of all tastes, that is an absolute bottom turn-out fan club there.  

That's what 2005 was ... and it wasn't a week - it was three weeks folks.  So far what we are seeing in the models is beat red-headed step child worthy - no doubt.  But it pales in comparison to 2005.   

[Ginx snewx]

Glad we didn't install. Days and days of summer? Spring for a while.

[Whineminster]

This is terrible.  All those haters who said no thanks to FLA USA...I'd take 93 and high humidity over this, and you would too. 

[dendrite]

Ah...the admiral of arctic. The next couple of weeks look meh, but I'm not too worried about 2m temp anomalies of -0.3C over the next 46 days. Give me some consistent westerly flow/high pressure and sun by mid month and those temps would be nice.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ah...the admiral of arctic. The next couple of weeks look meh, but I'm not too worried about 2m temp anomalies of -0.3C over the next 46 days. Give me some consistent westerly flow/high pressure and sun by mid month and those temps would be nice.

Unless it's the highs driving the anomalies.

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glad we didn't install. Days and days of summer? Spring for a while.

I would love for this to verify! 

[tamarack]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ah...the admiral of arctic. The next couple of weeks look meh, but I'm not too worried about 2m temp anomalies of -0.3C over the next 46 days. Give me some consistent westerly flow/high pressure and sun by mid month and those temps would be nice.

Looks like your locale is near the line between 0.5-1.0 and 1.0-1.5, which over 6 weeks would be significant, and could come in two ways, lots of cool rain or frequent shots of crisp Canadian CAA.  The first is miserable for all; the second means late frosts for many.  Have not had a June frost here in 10 years.

I mean it's a pretty ugly look. You can put a little lipstick on the pig and say that it probably won't rain as much under the upper low as the models say it will, but otherwise the chamber is not happy.

At least nearly all the snow is gone in your CWA; it would probably take 4"+ RA to cause serious issues beyond the small streams.  However, there's still considerable pack beneath the evergreens at 46.5N and points north.  The 3.4" rain of 4/29/08 did little around here but blew away flood flow records in the St. John country.

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unless it's the highs driving the anomalies.

Yeah I don't take a lot of solace if there's a lot of 49/47s in there that mute the total anomaly a bit because the low temps were +6.

 

I guess we'll see. If the ULL ends up a bit north, then we could escape the worst of it...maybe even get a few days over 60 with self-destructing sun in the afternoon. But right now, everytime it looks like the turd is finally going to be flushed, it regenerated another swirl in the toilet bowl south of LI. So we'll def need a trend away from that.

 

GFS actually looks like some higher terrain flakes next week?

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't take a lot of solace if there's a lot of 49/47s in there that mute the total anomaly a bit because the low temps were +6.

 

I guess we'll see. If the ULL ends up a bit north, then we could escape the worst of it...maybe even get a few days over 60 with self-destructing sun in the afternoon. But right now, everytime it looks like the turd is finally going to be flushed, it regenerated another swirl in the toilet bowl south of LI. So we'll def need a trend away from that.

 

GFS actually looks like some higher terrain flakes next week?

I could buy the GFS. For a time it may be more W-NW flow with self destructive sun, but eventually that thing sags south and low pressure develops offshore along with Sarah Mclachlan playing in the background.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

This is terrible.  All those haters who said no thanks to FLA USA...I'd take 93 and high humidity over this, and you would too. 

Everyone would. It's warm season. Anyone who wants cold, clouds, wearing jackets , heating units on all day this time of year needs serious help. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Ah...the admiral of arctic. The next couple of weeks look meh, but I'm not too worried about 2m temp anomalies of -0.3C over the next 46 days. Give me some consistent westerly flow/high pressure and sun by mid month and those temps would be nice.

Anyone want to tell me about correlations and May again. Record NAO predicted.  Sh itty days but bearable this time of year. Same peeps who called for Morch called for Mayorch. It's happens right Brian?

 

[dendrite]

26 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looks like your locale is near the line between 0.5-1.0 and 1.0-1.5, which over 6 weeks would be significant, and could come in two ways, lots of cool rain or frequent shots of crisp Canadian CAA.  The first is miserable for all; the second means late frosts for many.  Have not had a June frost here in 10 years.

I mean it's a pretty ugly look. You can put a little lipstick on the pig and say that it probably won't rain as much under the upper low as the models say it will, but otherwise the chamber is not happy.

At least nearly all the snow is gone in your CWA; it would probably take 4"+ RA to cause serious issues beyond the small streams.  However, there's still considerable pack beneath the evergreens at 46.5N and points north.  The 3.4" rain of 4/29/08 did little around here but blew away flood flow records in the St. John country.

1.5 month temp anomalies don't tell you much, but the next 2 weeks could easily give you that -1F leaving the following few weeks normal to above. I've already conceded May through mid month. Of course, we're talking a d46 2m ens mean which is equivalent or worse than a d16 op prog.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone want to tell me about correlations and May again. Record NAP predicted.  Sh itty days but bearable this time of year. Same peeps who called for Morch called for Mayorch. It's happens right Brian?

If you have a highly anomalous block like this, of course it will have an effect. That doesn't mean the correlation is wrong as a whole. Also, we also mentioned where the block sets up matters. This goes west for a time and has a larger effect.