dendrite Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 4/26/2017 at 2:39 PM, Ginx snewx said: Based on the latest Euro with clouds and even showers around I'll take the under on Mex PVD 87 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Freaks days of 40's and rain looking less and less likely . I think that's all most folks care about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: PVD 87 FTW Tough times for the Captain of Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: PVD 87 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 4/26/2017 at 0:37 PM, Ginx snewx said: yea couple days near 80, pretty meh Get that **** outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Dude loves his Euro products. As bad as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 All in fun Steve...we win some, we lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Freaks days of 40's and rain looking less and less likely . I think that's all most folks care about Yeah love me some 40s and rain over the current low dew, mild temp days. So much more to do outside recreation-wise and work on the hill is so enjoyable in the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah love me some 40s and rain over the current low dew, mild temp days. So much more to do outside recreation-wise and work on the hill is so enjoyable in the cold rain. Should have been shut down weeks ago. No one is in ski/snow mode now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should have been shut down weeks ago. No one is in ski/snow mode now Agree with you there... the locals will hike it instead of going to the gym, but the general public is well out of it by April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Bos 55 tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Albeit tedious for some perhaps ... this really is an interesting combination of meteorological circumstances going on today. In one perspective, there is a +2 (est) SD warm mid level ridge anomaly ballooning over the eastern U.S. through tomorrow. Yet in an excessive contrast to what that would suggest is going on beneath ... we see temperatures struggling to make 55 F at the surface, with DPs in the upper 20s! Heights > mid 570s DM with DPs in the 20s can happen, and in fact, it's not actually that unusual in early to mid spring warm spells. Early season continental return flows of warm air are often moisture challenged because of various reasons in the environment.... However, it's getting toward May and there's early green-up well underway; it is really getting late to see this combination. On hi res visible loops you can also see a diffused BD that is moving SW through the region behind the primary/main baroclinic axis extending W/E through the M/A, as denoted by WPC's surface analysis. It may be too subtle to really pick up but the satellite sort of betrays that 2ndary push. Over particularly eastern New England, you can observer low cloud swaths being immediately eroded back SW because at least for this 12 to 18 hour period underway, the late polar air intrusion is thick enough to scour out from the N/NE. It's a saving grace if your a light sky fan because the NAM cloud machine numbers were suggestion a much murkier vibe for today. So at least the sun will off-set the annoying late season chill. Meanwhile. there is interesting convection bubbling up over N PA. Early low angle sun off the turrets of hose CB towers was really neat to see with Dupage's new super hi resolution. Their region temperature are not too dissimilar to ours ... this is probably overrunning convection, while it atones to the idea that this is a shallow air mass. I bet it's not much more than 1,300 meters of the sounding over an extended sprawl - in other words, the sounding everywhere is probably pretty sloped positively below 4K feet or so. In total, although these observations this morning seem rather extreme ...this is actually typical climate behavior at this time of year. We had a couple days of solid 80 to 85 F weather ...then a cyclone moves N through the MV toward the Lakes. The deep layer flow structure that associated with that, and how it 'buckles' the flow out ahead over eastern Canada, typically does promote the genesis/strengthening of surface high pressure over that region of N/A. This transitive relationship et al forces the farther E extension of the warm front ...or frontal tapestry in general, to sink S ... warm-up gets interrupted whether it's a BD proper or some variation therein. Anyway, mid 70s on machine guidance returns for Tuesday, which is also not unusual. The interruption goes back the other way for 6-12 hours just before said cyclone's main cfropa finally cleans house of it all. Honestly, ...since I have lived in this region of the country I can count on one hand the years I have experienced end to end un-interrupted warm departures in April/May. Dr Colby and I once purely for muse went back across the dailies from April and May, 1976, as they are recorded up at UML. That would have been an amazing experience. There were like four days in a row of 90 + weather ( some days peaked at 96!) over the Merrimack Valley region and throughout NE.... Then, when it broke, ...it didn't event exact revenge like it did in 1998, by snowing within a week... It went back to mid 70s...and other than one or two brief stints of mid 50s ...as far as we could find the majority of days through May that year were well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Something I've noticed is if you want to avoid the undesirable impacts of a BD up here in spring, push it well south/southwest, that way the low level easterly flow is more nuanced and you have Surface HP overhead. Even with a CP air mass the sun can then do its work, and the lack of wind further improves the sensible weather conditions. In sum if ACY is socked in clouds with strong E/NE winds, like it is today, chances are we salvage a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Agreed ... I mentioned that earlier ... that the sun is strong enough now to offset the 'undesired' theft of merrier air inside these spring scenarios. That said, ...the sun needs to shine we're presently submerging under it down here. In fact, there's a cluster of warm frontal convection already that's erupted over PA and marched bee-line toward and is entering now, western zones. The lightning detection shows this region is still going on with it... The NAM QPF doesn't seem to reflect this region to well, as it is poised to perhaps sprinkle the region with those elevated positive stroke booms. we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 57 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Something I've noticed is if you want to avoid the undesirable impacts of a BD up here in spring, push it well south/southwest, that way the low level easterly flow is more nuanced and you have Surface HP overhead. Even with a CP air mass the sun can then do its work, and the lack of wind further improves the sensible weather conditions. In sum if ACY is socked in clouds with strong E/NE winds, like it is today, chances are we salvage a nice day. Yeah sometimes when you push it well SW, you get drier air advecting in. I've seen it clear at the coast first while areas in CT are socked in. What screws us is when the front hang up just south of us like tomorrow will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should have been shut down weeks ago. No one is in ski/snow mode now Sugarloaf had two parking lots full yesterday, know what your talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Nice elevated storms moving in along 850 return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah sometimes when you push it well SW, you get drier air advecting in. I've seen it clear at the coast first while areas in CT are socked in. What screws us is when the front hang up just south of us like tomorrow will have. While CT sectors tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: While CT sectors tomorrow Make take awhile for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 We bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: We bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: This song seems to be showing up everywhere lately, lol. Its almost as bad as Gary Wright's "Dream Weaver", god I hate that song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This song seems to be showing up everywhere lately, lol. Its almost as bad as Gary Wright's "Dream Weaver", god I hate that song. I remember exactly where I was the first time I heard it. I went west (California) for a job interview and I heard it on the rental car radio on the way from LAX to the hotel. I believe it was around 7/10/76. It turned out to be a fateful interview because I ended up going setting in motion 15 years of missed winters including the blizzard of '78. That said, what happpened in those 15 years helped set the stage for a return and some nice late career success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I remember exactly where I was the first time I heard it. I went west (California) for a job interview and I heard it in the rental car radio on the way from LAX to the hotel. I believe it was around 7/10/76. It turned out to be a fateful interview because I ended up going setting in motion 15 years if missed winters including the blizzard of '78. That said, what happpened in those 15 years helped set the stage for a return and some nice late career success. I was only 1 years old when "Dream Weaver" was released, but always cried when it was on the radio, of course as I got older the crying stopped but I still hate the song to this day. Thank god it is rarely played on the radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Well looks like a forgone conclusion that the first severe weather outbreak across the SE US is this Thurs/Fri. Looks downright nasty. Euro is a beast. EPS and GEFS on board for a GOM to Great Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Hi res visible imagery is really fascinating ...you can get a clear cookie-cut impression of where the front has set up... Curvilinearly classic, too...showing warm bulge and returned boundary has punched almost to BUF already, while it's BD'ed clear down the Del Marva. Scott's right. The air mass is shallow and the 850 level has no interest in cooling off.. Such that the warm air rides over and there's pulses of elevated instability. You get the impression when looping said satellite that the boundary is already attempting to erode down S... The 12z Euro operation run also looks as though it is trying to punch the warm air back in here tomorrow afternoon. That would be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Both the CMC and Euro with whopper -NAO and tappable cold sufficient for historic late season snow... The only problem? Duh duh duh day 10. However, the teleconnectors from the GEFs have really been hitting a truly miserable, craptastic pattern for the first half of May. So... these long range computer day dreams of blue glory aside ... if you are a spring enthusiast, you may want to seek another hobby until further notice. It's been a really solid signal - we'll see how the dailies go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Both the CMC and Euro with whopper -NAO and tappable cold sufficient for historic late season snow... The only problem? Duh duh duh day 10. However, the teleconnectors from the GEFs have really been hitting a truly miserable, craptastic pattern for the first half of May. So... these long range computer day dreams of blue glory aside ... if you are a spring enthusiast, you may want to seek another hobby until further notice. It's been a really solid signal - we'll see how the dailies go down. Install cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 27 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Install cancel? ha! right - you know, i never took the sucker out last autumn - the bedroom one. It just wasn't that cold this lasts winter, and the b-room's on the 2nd floor so the regular home heating trapped enough upstairs. Plus, the unit sits in the window reasonably enough shored up/air tight that a mild winter is fine. Oh it got cold here and there this year, but nothing enough to bother. So long of the short, the debate doesn't count for me. Fwiw, I have used it three times now. Each time it surpassed 80 F so far this year I have needed it at least initially because that same trapping heat phenomenon means that even pedestrian warmth makes that 2nd floor above sleep - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 The trough axis sets up to our west thru day 10. So it's likely a lot of low-mid 60's and cooler nights. Maybe Friday stays in the 50's. Not a summer pattern, but certainly not cold or well below normal either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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