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Ginx snewx
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Kevin posts a lot of drivel, but I have to agree with him on May/NAO temperature correlation.

 

It's about as close to zero as you can get in our neck of the woods:

 

 

climdivcorr_205_181_240_195_116_11_18_5_prcp.gif

 

 

Now that doesn't mean that there is zero influence from a specific NAO block...if the pattern is setup more like winter, then it will definitely have an effect...but the overall correlation is basically nil for the month. Next week may be more of the former situation where it does leave us in mank...we'll see though. Lots of time.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin posts a lot of drivel, but I have to agree with him on May/NAO temperature correlation.

 

It's about as close to zero as you can get in our neck of the woods:

 

 

climdivcorr_205_181_240_195_116_11_18_5_prcp.gif

 

 

Now that doesn't mean that there is zero influence from a specific NAO block...if the pattern is setup more like winter, then it will definitely have an effect...but the overall correlation is basically nil for the month. Next week may be more of the former situation where it does leave us in mank...we'll see though. Lots of time.

The 1977 snow event was immediately preceded by a west based NAO and if one wants to they can track both the impulse and attending cold 850 plume right back to a conveyor/source that is dictated by the curvilinear flow around said high latitude blocking.. 

Now, granted ...that's an extreme case... However, the data/application in general for that product ( I don't believe; but could certainly be wrong) above does not consider the NAO into quadrature - which means... that it's a conditional correlation depending on the specifics like you mentioned. 

None of which ( I don't believe; but could certainly be wrong) Kevin has in mind when he avers blanket statements like he usually does - 

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it's probably a threshold argument ...as an afterthought. 

Most NAOs don't plummet to say, -4 SD... that/those are rare by definition of that number.  Combining that with shrinking R-numbers...it makes sense that -1 is less effectual at modulating the temperature in May than it would be in January - duh.  But... I'd argue that if we get the index to a threshold of extremeness the flow probably does get overwhelmed and modulation ensues. ...think of it as .. all -2 and softer are canceled out of correlation, which is the bell curve mass of them all.  But, the few that may go to -3 and -4 do; it's a matter of not happening enough to show up in those smoothed linear products.  

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's probably a threshold argument ...as an afterthought. 

Most NAOs don't plummet to say, -4 SD... that/those are rare by definition of that number.  Combining that with shrinking R-numbers...it makes sense that -1 is less effectual at modulating the temperature in May than it would be in January - duh.  But... I'd argue that if we get the index to a threshold of extremeness the flow probably does get overwhelmed and modulation ensues. ...think of it as .. all -2 and softer are canceled out of correlation, which is the bell curve mass of them all.  But, the few that may go to -3 and -4 do; it's a matter of not happening enough to show up in those smoothed linear products.  

Yeah I can agree with this. The standard dev itself in May might be a tighter window too than you see in winter....(i.e. we get more -3 SD blocks in January than we do in May)

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I can agree with this. The standard dev itself in May might be a tighter window too than you see in winter....(i.e. we get more -3 SD blocks in January than we do in May)

right - that too... The lowering grandient means the "pattern" modulation its self is faster... I thinking that as quick as the NAO domain can vary inside of a month, it may even have gradient rate-of-change in May, which makes the correlation tuff..

I just i dunno i think I still don't feel comfortable thinking -NAO in May is completely useless - not that anyone said it is of course. Oh wait -

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right - that too... The lowering grandient means the "pattern" modulation its self is faster... I thinking that as quick as the NAO domain can vary inside of a month, it may even have gradient rate-of-change in May, which makes the correlation tuff..

I just i dunno i think I still don't feel comfortable thinking -NAO in May is completely useless - not that anyone said it is of course. Oh wait -

There does seem to be a wet correlation to a May -NAO. So, if we are going by...say high temps...there might be some sort of relationship to cooler high temps if there is a wet correlation to the -NAO. Perhaps temps as a whole don't tell the story because marine flow levels the low temp/high temp playing field. That would involve more research.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin posts a lot of drivel, but I have to agree with him on May/NAO temperature correlation.

 

It's about as close to zero as you can get in our neck of the woods:

 

 

climdivcorr_205_181_240_195_116_11_18_5_prcp.gif

 

 

Now that doesn't mean that there is zero influence from a specific NAO block...if the pattern is setup more like winter, then it will definitely have an effect...but the overall correlation is basically nil for the month. Next week may be more of the former situation where it does leave us in mank...we'll see though. Lots of time.

Its too bad you can't separate that into the first week or 2, as Mid month approaches we summer more less influence. Looks manky

eps_z500a_5d_noram_53.png

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16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro forecast for my hood Friday 76/59  Sat 73/57 Sun 61/39 helluva way to run a torch, glad we didn't install

I live in NYC and I haven't even installed yet...it's way too early for AC. Tonight will be the warmest night with a low around 60F...the extended shows plenty of nights getting down to the 40s with an outside shot at 30s. Very comfortable weather.

Some people want to live completely in a bubble, running the heat until early April then turning on AC 2 weeks later. One thing I enjoy about spring and fall is the natural air...the cool breeze floating in the window at night. No need for everything to be artificial.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More wetness next week. Interesting 180 flip from last Spring.

yeah... I was talking to some other Mets elsewhere about this very same thing.  It's actually flipped aggressively compared to the complexion of the last several springs perhaps -.  

This is also a winter-like look the GFS is trying and clawing and scraping unrelentingly to set up; you can almost sense it's raging stubborn battle against seasonal change and the sun ongoing in each successive cycle of that model.  And this is sort of been more than less endemic to the CMC and Euro, too.  Even when we have big bulging potentially warm ridges, the engineer weird ways to slice cold air under the ridge some 1,000 miles or more aggressive than even climatology for that sort of thing... and they end right too!

Details aside, at this point we have a winter time pattern super-imposed under a May sun in the blend of the runs .. Weend up with 50s and early 60s with wet days followed by tinge frosts clear mornings... just to keep the gardening season on stand-by indefinitely, just to smack faces of those with visions of summer - ha.  

I'm also wonder what the summer pattern/default look will be or how this will evolve into one... Sometimes, these April looks have a way of being genetic descending and you end up with a relaxed version or some variation of the whatever plagues you in mid spring.  Wondering if end up with one of those Chicago death heat years while we're jammed in an eternal NW flow.  Who knows -

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5 hours ago, nzucker said:

I live in NYC and I haven't even installed yet...it's way too early for AC. Tonight will be the warmest night with a low around 60F...the extended shows plenty of nights getting down to the 40s with an outside shot at 30s. Very comfortable weather.

Some people want to live completely in a bubble, running the heat until early April then turning on AC 2 weeks later. One thing I enjoy about spring and fall is the natural air...the cool breeze floating in the window at night. No need for everything to be artificial.

Gotta love those honking horns, sirens, and stinky exhaust fumes wafting in from the street below. 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

We actually ran the a/c for the bedroom zones upstairs last night.   It was warm during the day and even with windows open the house gets full afternoon sun.  I figure I'll flip it off for tomorrow.

this happens in my place too... The threshold appears to be right around 80 F.  Anything there or exceeding and the heat pools upstairs trapped there. By the time the evening calls for escaping the day ...it may be 90 up there while it's 68 in the living room.  So I too ran the AC -

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Gfs and Euro both have cut off in SE vs over northeast. Big changes today. Hope they hold.. despite what Freak wants 

The ensembles are below normal through the period with rain at times. Tuesday and Wednesday look good next week. Of course you can have some DSD at times, but I did not see a wholesale change except for the op runs showing 1 day less of rain.

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ensembles are below normal through the period with rain at times. Tuesday and Wednesday look good next week. Of course you can have some DSD at times, but I did not see a wholesale change except for the op runs showing 1 day less of rain.

Freaks days of 40's and rain looking less and less likely . I think that's all most folks care about 

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