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April 9-10 Severe Potential


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That complex from this morning worked over the atmosphere enough to disrupt the moisture return a bit.  You can see with each update the HRRR has been slower to rebound the 60+ dews.  This looks to focus the more robust convection south of I-80 initially.  Looks like the better moisture/instability will make it up towards Chicago just in time for good severe chances up there.  Best shot at tors initially looks to be in the Galesburg/Macomb/Peoria/Princeton box, and then expanding east/northeast from that area.  

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TOR probs lowered to 2%

 

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1129 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017  
  
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX  
TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
SLIGHT RISKS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND ARE MOST  
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARK-LA-TEX.  
   
..MIDWEST  
  
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM MI TO THE SAINT  
LOUIS AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CORES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MIDDAY ACTIVITY,  
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EMANATE OUT  
OF THE MID-MS VALLEY, NEAR/SOUTH OF A REFORMING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT  
SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE  
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE.   
  
AS DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT, 50S  
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONFINED PLUME OF WEAK TO  
MODERATE MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
NEAR 8 DEGREES C/KM FROM 700-500 MB. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS  
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OWING TO VEERED FLOW, NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE  
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES  
OF 40-50 KT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MIX OF SPLITTING TRANSIENT  
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GROWING INTO AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MI  
TO LAKE HURON AREA. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE.   

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6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

TOR probs lowered to 2%

 

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1129 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017  
  
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX  
TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
SLIGHT RISKS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND ARE MOST  
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARK-LA-TEX.  
   
..MIDWEST  
  
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM MI TO THE SAINT  
LOUIS AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CORES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MIDDAY ACTIVITY,  
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EMANATE OUT  
OF THE MID-MS VALLEY, NEAR/SOUTH OF A REFORMING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT  
SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE  
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE.   
  
AS DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT, 50S  
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONFINED PLUME OF WEAK TO  
MODERATE MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
NEAR 8 DEGREES C/KM FROM 700-500 MB. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS  
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OWING TO VEERED FLOW, NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE  
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES  
OF 40-50 KT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MIX OF SPLITTING TRANSIENT  
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GROWING INTO AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MI  
TO LAKE HURON AREA. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE.   

15% wind area also expanded back east though

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7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Svr storm watch coming for ne Il per meso discussion....Stebo, I think you are fortunate to be on the south end of things if you keep driving east.  Higher dews will be there.

Yeah been keeping an eye on that. I was going to go up 55 after I get into IL but I might just keep going east

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wonder if the better tornado threat (what threat there is) may be more toward the southern part of the 2% area.  Moisture a little better and winds a little less veered, especially near/south of I-80.

In agreement.  Elevated cell west of Crawfordsville now svr warned once again.  Dews up to 59/60 in St. Louis area moving ne.   Also note new cells near PIA.

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