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April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Mack should have a interesting storm report here any second now as that hail core that had been producing baseball size hail is right over him now.....

Man, most intense hail I have ever been through !!!! Not biggest size wise, but pea to marble sized , and for about 5 minutes, it sounded like the roof was gonna cave in!!!! But the hail core really became pronounced right over my house!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Man, most intense hail I have ever been through !!!! Not biggest size wise, but pea to marble sized , and for about 5 minutes, it sounded like the roof was gonna cave in!!!! But the hail core really became pronounced right over my house!

Cool better marble than baseball lol, that's a large hail core too so its covering a lot of ground....

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Intense Storm just passed over my house about 10 mins ago. Local mets said this would be out of here before 10pm but the worst of the day came after midnight when everyone was asleep. Not good. Haven't looked at the dynamics of what came overhead but one would think that had some rotation somewhere in it. Overall 10/10 storm! Made me feel really small in the scheme of things. Good stuff 

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

For a minute or two, there was more hail falling than rain! Can get pics to post! :( 

Figure it out Mack lol, also that cell south of Columbia is starting to look pretty nasty.....any discrete cells out forming in that area could be trouble DP are higher etc....IMBY its 64/64 but I wont have to deal with this stuff for another 5-6 hrs lol.

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Just now, downeastnc said:

Figure it out Mack lol, also that cell south of Columbia is starting to look pretty nasty.....any discrete cells out forming in that area could be trouble DP are higher etc....IMBY its 64/64 but I wont have to deal with this stuff for another 5-6 hrs lol.

I had all this @ 58 degrees!

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7 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Intense Storm just passed over my house about 10 mins ago. Local mets said this would be out of here before 10pm but the worst of the day came after midnight when everyone was asleep. Not good. Haven't looked at the dynamics of what came overhead but one would think that had some rotation somewhere in it. Overall 10/10 storm! Made me feel really small in the scheme of things. Good stuff 

Tiny amount of rotation around the crossover from Anderson to Greenville County.

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That felt stronger than the storm that produced the EF1 tornado here several months ago. Would be suprised if we didn't have some straight line wind damage out there somewhere. Reminded me a lot of the microburst that came through Laurens county 8 or so years ago. 

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Looks like if we are going to get anything severe here in eastern NC in the morning it will be from the "line" or cluster of storms in central SC, local NWS offices still saying they expect severe storms to fire after dawn alongand east of I 95 in eastern NC I guess we shall see.

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mcd0458.gif.9a36e894a99025d48253d9a738a823d6.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0458
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into
   central and eastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

   Valid 060959Z - 061130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk will gradually increase across central and
   eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia over the next few
   hours, which may require watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows some increase in both coverage
   and intensity of convection across central North Carolina.  This is
   occurring in response to strengthening ascent pivoting
   north-northeastward across the Carolinas and Virginia as mid-level
   short-wave troughing has rounded the base of the Midwestern low and
   is now shifting rapidly toward the mid-Atlantic region.

   The boundary-layer airmass across the NC/VA area remains
   cool/saturated and slightly stable, with temperatures and dewpoints
   in the upper 50s to low 60s.  However, with focused ascent near and
   just ahead of the surface front yielding gradual cooling aloft,
   steady weakening of the low-level inversion is expected to result in
   near moist-adiabatic low-level profiles -- i.e. sufficient for
   storms to eventually become at least near surface-based.  Above the
   lower troposphere, mid-level cooling continues to gradually steepen
   lapse rates, with the overall effect trending toward a thermodynamic
   environment sufficient for vigorous storms.

   Presuming storms can become near surface-based, severe risk --
   including potential for a tornado or two -- will become increasingly
   likely, as currently observed southeasterly surface winds veer and
   increase rapidly with height, supportive of  updraft rotation.
   While the degree of risk remains a bit conditional/uncertain due to
   the currently stable boundary layer, risk appears great enough to
   warrant consideration of watch issuance over the next 1-2 hours.

 

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Northern tip of the rain mass will past just south of me and I see what seems to be partial clearing coming from the west before the main line. Doesn't look so bad but I'm far from sold for this threat. 

Couple of school districts around Tidewater closed for the day, I guess it's better to be safe than sorry.

 

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Still seems the threat here turned out to be less of a big deal than what RAH and WRAL made it out to be yesterday. They both sounded confident of numerous storms and a few tornadoes here. I think we got lucky with the timing. Might be worse if we had these conditions in the afternoon with some clearing and sun beforehand to add the spark we need to fire things up.

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25 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Still seems the threat here turned out to be less of a big deal than what RAH and WRAL made it out to be yesterday. They both sounded confident of numerous storms and a few tornadoes here. I think we got lucky with the timing. Might be worse if we had these conditions in the afternoon with some clearing and sun beforehand to add the spark we need to fire things up.

I wouldn't let my guard down just yet. 

Were getting pretty nasty storm here is Surry Co. that just blowed up. Glad it was in morning vs after heating of the day. 

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There should be a few lessons learned from this event.  You had severe weather experts in here yesterday which I know many of us Southerners appreciated. 

 

What I didn't like was the belittling attitude from some when there was an early suggestion that the atmosphere was going to remain stable over N. GA.  We live here and know our weather better than ANY experts from another subforum. 

 

The wedge prevailed again....  It's actually a little amazing that this feature which controls so much of our weather is not understood by very knowledgeable severe weather folks.  This is not slight against them.  Again, they were and are appreciated as they bring lots of good posts to the table.

 

It is what it is but the lesson here should be, be humble there is always lots to learn.  The minute you think you know it all is the minute you will get humbled.

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