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April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

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6 minutes ago, Chinook said:

SPC mesoanalysis says the CAPE in Alabama has increased to the 3000-3500 J/kg range. Along with the shear parameters, this means the sig-tor parameter is going much higher, up into the 1-2 range.

Things better start firing off soon, you can clearly see the cold front on the visible satellite.  Still really not much action in Alabama.

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Biggest risk IMO in regards to geographic area for tors/sig tors remains from the stretch just east of Birmingham to ATL to Knoxville area then to Nashville. For multiple reasons, biggest being veering winds. Winds at sfc are SE in this area w/ helicity expected to max out per RAP along the border of AL/GA/TN. Farther north into KY, DP's didn't make what had been expected with LCLs being fairly high. Further south, fairly meridional flow exists along southern portions of AL/GA. If anything significant were to happen behind convection along DL, it'd be in this area I think. 

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Cell west of ATL obviously hit the wedge and died. But the cell to the east of Birmingham is looking healthy at the moment, and it's basically on the nose of the better environment pushing northeast out of central Alabama so it probably has a better chance of sustaining itself.

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Just saw that the tornado watch is already being trimmed away in southwest Alabama, also noticed earlier they were pretty quick to remove the one from this morning as the storms moved out of the area.

 

 

Has there been more of a focus to end the watched quicker now? 

I feel like they used to leave them up all day just in case

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Boom...TVS west of Talladega.

A few low-end inbound/outbound pixels next to one another is not a TVS. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, it isn't even TOR warned nor does it have an established low level meso yet. Learn to objectively interpret Doppler radar, or wait for those who know how to to make these kinds of posts.

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

bhm just said on twitter just a moment ago that rotation is increasing with that storm and a tornado warning might be issued 

The Carrolton cell? To clarify, I was speaking of the first one that passed through Carrolton, Not the other one NWW of it, which is the one I'm more concerned over. 

 

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