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April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

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16 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm looking at a surface map on weather.com and i dont see any fronts in the vicinity of GA. There's a stationary front in KY, VA and a cold front entering AL but i don't see anything anywhere near GA.

boundary is pretty evident looking at surface temps as you can see below (you can zoom in and out/change number of stations  for those not familiar with the WHV) but am noticing winds west and south of atlanta starting to turn to the ESE vs east earlier which means it might be on the move again..also there is now considerable breaks in the cloud cover starting to happen from west to east...which should speed up the warm front's push north. Plus  the decrease in precip over north ga will help too. 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&scroll_zoom=true&center=33.31216783738619,-84.990234375&basemap=ESRI Imagery&boundaries=false,true,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=severe&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=tempcur&obs_popup=false&obs_density=2

 

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I was just about to say that. A stout east wind over here at ATL where I work and it's been hell today for the airlines here.

Looks to be plenty of filtered sunshine, maybe even full sunshine, is on the way and that can help mix the boundary back northward. I think that scenario may very well play out and have it bisecting the metro in time for the main activity time period, which could be pretty ugly if so.

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Many times in north Georgia, our wedge boundaries in the spring can be somewhat diffuse and reach all the south of the city.  The boundary today is very sharp and only encompasses the far NE section of Georgia.  Yesterday's STP was bulls eyed from basically the perimeter westward to the Alabama border which seems about right based on current obs.  Any cells which form to our west will have a stout boundary to follow as they track off to the east.  I think it's going to be on for the city westward but I think areas in the far NE foothills and mountains may remain stable enough to prevent anything really serious.  

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It's been mostly overcast but bright, with a few patches of clear sky showing, in my little chunk of western GA.  The Carrollton cell split and its pieces have reduced the clearing a bit.

... keeping a close eye on the rotation in that AL cell, the northern part of which has just crossed over in to GA, along I-20.

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very cloudy here in beaufort. hopefully it stays that way, but i don't think things are going to be getting too intense in these parts.

we had some peeks of sunshine a couple hours ago after some rain this morning, but besides that just cloudy cloudy cloudy. 

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1 minute ago, SharonA said:

It's been mostly overcast but bright, with a few patches of clear sky showing, in my little chunk of western GA.  The Carrollton cell split and its pieces have reduced the clearing a bit.

... keeping a close eye on the rotation in that AL cell, the northern part of which has just crossed over in to GA, along I-20.

That cell is severe, hail sig on it.  Warning has to be incoming for that one,.

 

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:facepalm: 

 

All these post about it being too cloudy or wedged in are driving me insane. As has been stated numerous times by the experts on here and even from Brad P, this is going to be a evening/overnight threat. Heck we may even see a few peaks of sun before the sun goes down in our neck of the woods. Thank goodness for the ignore button. I find it very, very useful. 

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hi res nam, looks very meager as the final line moves through the western Carolinas! At around midnight or so, very skinny line of weak convection.

If so, I wonder if that will hold true as is sweeps off to the east overnight. I don't enjoy tornado threats after being in a couple and it's even worse of a feeling to have one in the middle of the night.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
349 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
GAC175-283-052030-  
/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-170405T2030Z/  
LAURENS GA-TREUTLEN GA-  
349 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR EAST  
CENTRAL LAURENS AND TREUTLEN COUNTIES...  
          
AT 349 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LOWERY, OR 13  
MILES SOUTH OF DUBLIN, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  T

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Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Columbia SC
355 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Columbia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Orangeburg County in central South Carolina...

* Until 445 PM EDT

* At 355 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 9 miles north of Denmark, moving east at 30 mph.

  * This dangerous storm will be near...
  Branchville around 435 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wilkinson Heights, Cope, Rowesville, Norway, Cordova and Edisto.
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5 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

Gosh that carrollton cell is sure elongated on the reflectivity scans. I wonder what the cape values are there: almost looks like it's trying to shear apart.

Noticing this as well. What little discrete activity that has occurred today has had that "stretched out" look. The one that tried to get going near Troy, AL is gone.

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