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April 5-6 Severe Threat


MattPetrulli

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2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

This seems like a titanic bust for ATL.  I don't see what the local mets are around here.  It's been pouring since 8:30am this morning nearly nonstop.  Aside from some pea sized hail it's been just a boat load of rain.

 

Is something else supposed to form later back into AL?

Yeah, they just issued tornado watch for NRN AL, through TN and KY.   Look for storms to form in that area.

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1 minute ago, LithiaWx said:

This seems like a titanic bust for ATL.  I don't see what the local mets are around here.  It's been pouring since 8:30am this morning nearly nonstop.  Aside from some pea sized hail it's been just a boat load of rain.

 

Is something else supposed to form later back into AL?

If I'm not mistaken Atlanta should at the very least get something out of the frontal passage tonight.

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3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

This seems like a titanic bust for ATL.  I don't see what the local mets are around here.  It's been pouring since 8:30am this morning nearly nonstop.  Aside from some pea sized hail it's been just a boat load of rain.

 

Is something else supposed to form later back into AL?

Way to early to call it a bust

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This was yesterday's GSP discussion at 2:47 PM

The NAM is developing
a moist/stable insitu wedge, which lasts throughout the period. This
is not supported by the other op models nor the ens guidance. Thus
the NAM will be treated as an outlier and will count on a good
amount of destabilization during the afternoon

 

Well I have a temp of 59.2 at the moment and light/moderate rain.NAM wins again.

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4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This was yesterday's GSP discussion at 2:47 PM

The NAM is developing
a moist/stable insitu wedge, which lasts throughout the period. This
is not supported by the other op models nor the ens guidance. Thus
the NAM will be treated as an outlier and will count on a good
amount of destabilization during the afternoon

 

Well I have a temp of 59.2 at the moment and light/moderate rain.NAM wins again.

The low level south winds are going to push this insitu wedge out by this evening. 

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

If you're calling a bust this early, you didn't even take the time to read the watch information and should probably stop posting. 

Nah, It's pretty safe to say parts of North GA are going to bust compared to what we were looking at yesterday.

 

Nobody said a word about the high risk down farther south.

 

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

Nah, It's pretty safe to say parts of North GA are going to bust compared to what we were looking at yesterday.

 

Nobody said a word about the high risk down farther south.

 

Sure maybe somewhat less of a threat, for now. But it's clearing just to the west of you. Calling it a bust though is somewhat irresponsible. 

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4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Nah, It's pretty safe to say parts of North GA are going to bust compared to what we were looking at yesterday.

 

Nobody said a word about the high risk down farther south.

 

Many forecasters have said of the strong probability of a lull period after the morning convection because the LLJ is going to start pushing it east/northeast.  The main disturbance, which is a a dryline-like feature, is moving east now in MS.  Also I would go out a limb and say that the SPC might have been very premature with the high risk prediction for South and Central GA and SC with only 2 cells that are supercellular in nature.  

My advice to you is to watch the what happens between East MS and I-65 corridor in AL in the next few hours.

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1 minute ago, kayman said:

Many forecasters have said strong probability of a lull period after the morning convection because the LLJ is going to start pushing it east/northeast.  The main disturbance, which is a a dryline-like feature in MS.  Also I would go out a limb and say that the SPC might have been very premature with the high risk prediction for South and Central GA and SC with only 2 cells that are supercellular in nature.  

My advice to you is to watch the what happens between East MS and I-65 corridor in AL in the next few hours.

Meh, we will see.  I'm not saying if the High risk verifies or not.  The threat does seem diminished here from what we were looking at yesterday.  There were lots of colorful maps showing huge potential here that seems to have been shifted well south and east.

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That lone cell moving through Carroll County is generating some amazing thunder.  Skies cleared a bit but still lots of thin cloud cover.

That one will hit here (me) in about 15 minutes and but I suspect if there's any real activity it will be from the one behind, currently south of Anniston, AL, that will have had more time to chew on the heating.

 

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3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Meh, we will see.  I'm not saying if the High risk verifies or not.  The threat does seem diminished here from what we were looking at yesterday.  There were lots of colorful maps showing huge potential here that seems to have been shifted well south and east.

You can go to COD yourself and look at the NAM and HRRR if you still want to see the big colors on the SIGTOR and SRH maps.

12Z NAM has SIGTORs over 10 along I-20 still, with 7+ values over downtown ATL at like 9PM.

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