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April 5-7 Rain/Snow/Wind


Hoosier

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6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The northern part of their CWA has been getting slammed on every model run, so that makes sense. I wonder what IWX and DTX are gonna do

IWX has been pretty bearish on this thing so far.  The row of Michigan counties in particular though would appear to be vulnerable.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like no winter advisory from IWX. Would not be surprised to see amounts that would warrant it, but perhaps they are banking on lessened impacts on roads.  

The need for one vs not needing one will probably be more obvious tonight or in the morning, but if the snow would accumulate on the roads it would be very slushy and cause a mess.

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3 hours ago, harrisale said:

If these 3km NAM snow totals are anywhere close to correct, there are going to be a lot of folks caught completely off guard in Southern Ontario. Saw tons of people lying out in the sun in the parks today.

Take with a grain of weenie salt of course:

85XLSGX.png

18z NAM is trying to switch YYZ to +SN as early as 22z tomorrow. I think that's really ambitious and it does have a bias of being too cold with low level temps. If things break right could be a 2-4" plastering after the drenching.

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0.95" of rain today.  Absolute miserable day.  Almost had the feel of a snowstorm, as the rain was coming down in sheets all afternoon with the strong northeast winds.  Felt a lot colder than the upper 30s.  Good news is we make a run at 70 as early as Sat, and DVN thinks we have a shot at 80 on Sun if all goes well.

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Drove through about ten minutes of snow near Slinger, WI early this afternoon. Been driving most of the day in rain with flakes trying to mix in.

Now in view of the peaks at Alpine Valley with melted flakes barely making it down, mixed with steady rain. Truck temp at 37.

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My car thermometer was flipping between 39 and 40, and it's usually pretty dead on accurate.  In any case, that is a little cooler than I was expecting at this point.  Perhaps it would suggest a quicker mix/changeover to snow than suggested by most of the models, but it's tough to say.  Little doubt that the heart of the defo band flips to snow later, but the question is what happens around here just outside the core/more toward the fringes.

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DTX

 

As the system rotates across the ern Great Lakes, the mid level deformation
should intensify/redevelop over Se Mi before exiting to the east
Thurs night. The thermodynamic profile will support a period of very
good snowfall rates once the change over occurs.
The region that is
expected to see the most snow and longest period of deformation
forcing is generally along and north of an Owosso to Bad Axe line.
These locals have been added to the winter storm watch for the
potential for over 6 inches of snow. If the change over occurs
across the Saginaw Valley a little earlier, snow totals could
feasibly approach a foot over Midland/Bay counties. The remainder of
the area should see anywhere from an inch to possibly 4 inches Thus
afternoon/evening.

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15 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Any thoughts on a road trip to get some pics? Twenty foot waves should look kind of cool.

Wouldn't be able to go until very late afternoon/early evening, which looks to be near the end of the peak winds... unless I'd go farther east along the shore.  Leaning against going but could change my mind.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure but it seems like the band in Indiana may be a bit farther west than progged by runs earlier today.  Still going to be a while before enough cooling for mixing with/changing to snow.

I suspect we'll see a fairly rapid changeover in many areas as the low closes off.

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