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Central PA - December 2017


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7 hours ago, canderson said:

Euro has a massive sub 980 storm hitting NJ Sunday afternoon. Hurricane force winds along the coast and boatloads of rain all the way back to Altoona it appears. Similar storm than Sandy from my untrained eye, just not as built up along the coast. 

Yeah, I just looked at it. Looks like it could be 3-5 inches of rain per the Euro.

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14 hours ago, canderson said:

Preparing everyone from DC to Altoona to New Haven east for the winter.

 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Boy you read my mind. 

 

Nut

Mine too...

I guess as always, it'll end up being a nowcasting event. The latest NAM wants to hit true central with the most qpf and is quite a rain thump. Waiting to see what the GFS does, and later, the Euro.

 

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Really odd CTPs reluctance to throw a few watches up.

Judging from their AFD they do appear that they will be considering watches but want to see where the primary deform precip really sets up as the low bombs out off the Mid Atlantic coast, which would still be in the Sunday-Sunday night timeframe. I wouldn't anticipate many flooding issues outside of the poor drainage/small stream variety... flash flood guidance is still quite high around most of the region and 12 & 24 hour values for headwaters are generally over 3-4 inches to reach flood stage threshold looking at the headwater guidance. This event should draw a pretty big response on the medium tributaries and the Susquehanna with us getting into late fall and not much vegetation to suck up the rainfall.. but I don't expect major flooding problems. Def a rain event that can be used as a good portion of the northeastern US has been fairly dry as of late. 

This major storm system looks to finally be the wakeup call to let us know that oh yea.. November 1st is this coming Wednesday after what has seemed like an eternally warm October til this past week. The Laurel's may also see their first measurable snowfall of the season on the tail end of this very robust storm system as well. How noteworthy that ends up being will likely hinge on how far back the deform precip hangs in central PA. Either way, I would look for the rain to end as some snow/snow showers in the high terrain in SW PA and northern tier. 

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10 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Really odd CTPs reluctance to throw a few watches up.

I found this in the latest AFD...

Quote

but the NE and NC counties may still get 3-4 inches of rain through the short term pd. This will cause some minor flooding along streams and creeks but larger rivers, which are running low now, should not get to even caution stages at most forecast points. Therefore, no need for a flood watch at this point.

Apparently, in the minds of the mets at CTP, if the big rivers don't flood, there's no need to issue any watches.

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29 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Welp looks like the I81 corridor around harrisburg is gettin the slot. Thank god this isnt a snow storm :)

I was just going to post about it. The dry slot some of the models indicated sure looks right...at the moment anyway.

If the area doesn't at some point fill in, we will see much less than what the Euro kept showing.

Par for the course in this area though. I wouldn't have expected otherwise...lol

 

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Guys part 2 is just getting going.....

Yes...with systems like this we slot.  We always do. That horse is dead....(sorry)

If you've watched the models, the deform on part 2 of this event is whats going to get us.  This one still looks to retrograde into central NY....

and is currently off the GA coast..... and down to 998mb.  HRRR has it down to 972 when its just east of me.

 

No need to throw towels away that you may need to wipe your soggy bald heads off w/. ^_^

Hi res showing a central pa shellackin later on.

I hope this is a precursor to winter.....I like this storm.

Nut

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Guys part 2 is just getting going.....

Yes...with systems like this we slot.  We always do. That horse is dead....(sorry)

If you've watched the models, the deform on part 2 of this event is whats going to get us.  This one still looks to retrograde into central NY....

and is currently off the GA coast..... and down to 998mb.  HRRR has it down to 972 when its just east of me.

 

No need to throw towels away that you may need to wipe your soggy bald heads off w/. ^_^

Hi res showing a central pa shellackin later on.

I hope this is a precursor to winter.....I like this storm.

Nut

I hope you're right. Unfortunately, I may be in bed when the best gets here as I have to get up at 3:30am to pilot my 53' sailboat tomorrow down to the Lehigh Valley and then Vineland NJ tomorrow. Crossing the Commodore Barry Bridge (Delaware River) should be loads of fun, especially on the return home as I'll be empty...

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Guys part 2 is just getting going.....

Yes...with systems like this we slot.  We always do. That horse is dead....(sorry)

If you've watched the models, the deform on part 2 of this event is whats going to get us.  This one still looks to retrograde into central NY....

and is currently off the GA coast..... and down to 998mb.  HRRR has it down to 972 when its just east of me.

 

No need to throw towels away that you may need to wipe your soggy bald heads off w/. ^_^

Hi res showing a central pa shellackin later on.

I hope this is a precursor to winter.....I like this storm.

Nut

What time should we anticipate this, after midnight?

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Been a mostly rainy day here with the height of this thing looking to be looming in far southern PA as the precip shield gets it's act together in response to the rapidly developing system. Only about a 5-10 min drive from my new place to get to about 2500' at the top of the mountain.. might have to go on a snow patrol later tonight. 

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4 hours ago, sauss06 said:

What time should we anticipate this, after midnight?

Yup.

extrapolating hi res's.

Rainwise, well its pretty much here and looks to subside around morning rush.  A blend of them shows eastern 2/3 of state with best chance of .75 -1.0'' and eastern 1/3 best whack at 2".

Unfortunately right as Voyager steps into the truck, wind should really get going and looks to lessen by early afternoon (although still rather gusty through about midnight tomorrow eve.)

If Mag/Millville or any others see diff...by all means, chime in.

Nut

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yup.

extrapolating hi res's.

Rainwise, well its pretty much here and looks to subside around morning rush.  A blend of them shows eastern 2/3 of state with best chance of .75 -1.0'' and eastern 1/3 best whack at 2".

Unfortunately right as Voyager steps into the truck, wind should really get going and looks to lessen by early afternoon (although still rather gusty through about midnight tomorrow eve.)

If Mag/Millville or any others see diff...by all means, chime in.

Nut

 

 

 

Wind really whipping. Power outages all over here

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Snow evident on some of the western MD cams.. especially this one. It's pretty impressive in motion with the wind driving the snow sideways. This particular one is on Keyser's ridge which is around 2800' or so. Could be a sign that some of the highest Laurel ridges in SW PA could be starting to see the same thing soon (rain mixing with and going over to snow).

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36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yup.

extrapolating hi res's.

Rainwise, well its pretty much here and looks to subside around morning rush.  A blend of them shows eastern 2/3 of state with best chance of .75 -1.0'' and eastern 1/3 best whack at 2".

Unfortunately right as Voyager steps into the truck, wind should really get going and looks to lessen by early afternoon (although still rather gusty through about midnight tomorrow eve.)

If Mag/Millville or any others see diff...by all means, chime in.

Nut

I pretty much expected that, and know I'm going to do battle with the steering wheel for a good part of my day, especially since I pull fairly light loads. It gets really interesting when you start making involuntary lane changes...lol

As for the rain, we've not yet had anything truly heavy, but since right around sunset, we've been heavier and steadier. Up to 0.58" in the gauge as I type this.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I pretty much expected that, and know I'm going to do battle with the steering wheel for a good part of my day, especially since I pull fairly light loads. It gets really interesting when you start making involuntary lane changes...lol

As for the rain, we've not yet had anything truly heavy, but since right around sunset, we've been heavier and steadier. Up to 0.58" in the gauge as I type this.

Man don't envy you I hate driving i81 after the 581 split in weather it's too tight with trucks and changing winds let alone differing traction surfaces in a lane

 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Snow evident on some of the western MD cams.. especially this one. It's pretty impressive in motion with the wind driving the snow sideways. This particular one is on Keyser's ridge which is around 2800' or so. Could be a sign that some of the highest Laurel ridges in SW PA could be starting to see the same thing soon (rain mixing with and going over to snow).

I’m dreaming of this having this same radar in January or February with a nice fresh cold high anchored to our north along with a winter storm warning for heavy snow....

Back to reality, MAG & other folks that live near the higher terrain of western CTP, please keep us posted on any snow that you encounter out in your area!

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